Mitch

[Mitch @MitchDavis11]

@TheWolfOfWebull LFG 🐺!

[atmk @atmk44]

Your favorite mentor can't even do this LOL

Been calling cycle tops and bottoms beforehand for years

[Garrett @GarrettBullish]

did you?

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The bottom impulse candle never gets fully filled.

A lot of people are always looking at the "imbalance", the "major weekly FVG", or the low volume transacted around that particular price region.

Now, targeting imbalances can work, but during a bull market, the majority of imbalances formed by strong legs higher usually don't get fully filled. In fact, bottoming impulse candles historically tend to remain unfilled.

And I think there's a relatively simple explanation for that.

We chopped for 2 months, then pumped 27%, and the market is still sitting in disbelief. There isn't necessarily any incentive for the imbalance below to be fully filled.

The imbalance formed in the first place because roughly 6B worth of shorts were liquidated, and that's only the visible liquidations we can actually see publicly.

So, based on this context, the imbalance below doesn't need to be fully filled, and there's a good chance it won't be.

The most we saw in 2022 was a partial fill, and even then, that wick was very quickly bought up. If we saw something similar this time around, it would equate to $BTC testing the low 70Ks. But again, that's not something I would guarantee either.

The purpose of this post is simply to give you some insight into the characteristics of how bottoms are formed, and why these major imbalances can remain unfilled as price continues higher after months of chop.

Technically speaking, I don't believe BTC will ever revisit my 62.6K 2x long entry again. I don't even expect it to revisit my 65.8K spot notional average that I shared publicly.

In my view, the absolute worst case retest would be somewhere just shy of $0K, potentially the high 69Ks in the event of some form of capitulation.

Outside of that, I don't expect anything significantly deeper. And even that could be a stretch.

We could quite easily hold the 73K-75K region before eventually putting in another leg higher towards 85K.

The main point is simple, an imbalance existing below price does not mean the market is obligated to fill it.

[PILTR @PILTR_XBT]

bitcoin:native orderflow update:

Looking at the aggregated orderflow inside the weekend range, most of the movement has been driven by existing positioning unwinding rather than fresh participation.

OI has been trending lower, with contracts closing and perp CVD being shaped by a mix of long covering and short covering. Spot has also been gradually selling, but overall still relatively flat.

On the LTF, that is starting to change.

We’re now seeing more active selling pressure from binance perps, price is complying with it, and spot is beginning to confirm. Not aggressive yet, but clearly more directional.

We also lost daily VWAP, which is bearish intraday for now.

Below the 78.6 low, passive bids are sitting densely.

If sellers keep the momentum and push through them, that’s clean bearish momentum & would confirm with a proper close below the low a bearish structural sequence

If price stops progressing there despite persistent aggression, we can start trapping shorts and trigger another counterrotation - something we’ve already seen multiple times inside this top range.

For now, bears are making progress.

The dynamic mean behind price is exactly what I use to judge that. But its dynamic and needs to be updated continuously

Probably streaming around midday today.

[PILTR @PILTR_XBT]

bitcoin:native weekend plan:

We left a strong imbalance behind and are now grinding around ATH VWAP, slightly above Monday High. wVWAP held as dynamic support on the first test.
-> bulls don't want to lose it

If bulls build some weekend momentum or shorts start covering, we can first mitigate part of the imbalance - potentially even push into the poor high.
-> would also fit into the Saturday stats

Key area remains Monday High + irVAH.

> Acceptance above -> higher scenario opens. Ideally I’d want rejection around the GP or after a sweep of the poor high.
> Acceptance below -> I want to see wVWAP break, which would confirm the failed auction for me and put the range lows back in play.

Position protected, 20% profits taken.

On the way to the airport now - back in a few hours, then back to full pace.

[Mitch @MitchDavis11]

@QuantIndicator @LuxAlgo Did you manually execute these trades based on Claude's analysis, or did you route Claude's outputs directly to your broker via an API for automated execution?

[Mr. Quant (Jacob) @QuantIndicator]

We went 3/3 on trades today using @LuxAlgo Quant.

From passing an eval to making $250 on our funded account.

This has been eye opening….

Trading is changing, and if you aren’t using the right tools you’re falling behind.

I can’t way to see where this thing goes. @LuxAlgo is about to take over🚀

[Mr. Quant (Jacob) @QuantIndicator]

OMG whut….

The amount of open sourced stuff @LuxAlgo just launched is insane.

You can now build any trading tool you want for yourself locally. And it’s free…

I’m talking:
1. Charts
2. Option flow
3. Order routing for automation with your broker
4. Edge stats
5. Trade journal
6. Insider trade data
+more

Literally every single tool….

[Cirmit @Cirmit]

Called a crazy $XPL cook in my elixir journal 2days ago.

[Garrett @GarrettBullish]

76.6k reversal ✅
79k break ✅
higher high made ✅
all in one day.
bitcoin:native

[Mitch @MitchDavis11]

@Cirmit Great call as usual, my guy.

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

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No more tab-switching between five different tools to piece together what's actually happening.

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[Cirmit @Cirmit]

$HYPE long cooking

[Cirmit @Cirmit]

Elixir just hit 400R in profits

Insane

[Jack @Tech_Rose1]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE DON'T USE GROK FOR CRYPTO.

MOST TRADERS ARE LOOKING AT CHARTS FROM 3 MONTHS AGO.
GROK ANALYZES REAL-TIME SENTIMENT ON X TO ANTICIPATE TOMORROW.

HERE ARE 8 PROMPTS TO FIND THE NEXT 10X GEM:

[Whiplash347 @Whiplash437]

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[David Marco @david_marco45]

🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now run Stock Market research like a top consulting firm (for free).

Here are 10 Claude prompts that replace $100K/year stock analysts.

(Save this 🔖 for future reference.)

[Livsun @L1vsun]

a quant at citadel told me something that broke my entire trading framework

"we don't predict markets. we model the state machine"

he explained markov cains in 90 seconds

the market is never random - it always exists in one of three states

trending up, trending down, ranging - each has a fixed probability of shifting to another

build the transition matrix from real price data:
trending up -> 68% stays trending, 21% flips to range, 11% reverses
ranging -> 54% stays range, 28% breaks up, 18% breaks down
trending down -> 61% stays falling, 24% flips to range, 15% reverses

now you're not guessing, you're playing probability

identify current state, enter with the 68% edge, size with kelly criterion based on that probability

the formula is public - andrei markov published it in 1906

hedge funds use it every day, the math costs nothing

what costs you is asking the wrong question

"where is price going" is random

"what state am I in right now" has an answer
transition matrix built from 10 years of data is your edge

Bookmark and use in your own strategy

37 years without a losing year, 66% annual returns
paper is free, data is free, implementation is 200 lines of python

they kept you staring at candles while they ran probability tables

[Dipanshu Kushwaha @Dipanshu_AI]

Anthropic engineer: "at Anthropic, we don't write prompts anymore. we build loops"

in 42 minutes, she shows how the Claude team creates loops that prompt themselves

if this cost $400, people would call it the best agents course of the year

it's free

watch it, and Bookmark.