Ignatius J. Reilly

NJ moderate conservative * mostly here to look at maps/data * I have the occasional mildly intelligent comment

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@PpollingNumbers November 3, 2026: Roger Marshall wins re-election 52-45.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@tysonbrody The problem Dems run into in these Senate races is that most Republicans end up coming home and there are just too many of them. But they keep deluding themselves into thinking they can pick off these seats.

So Marshall is probably going to be OK.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@tysonbrody Kansas is as Republican as South Carolina; hasn’t elected a Dem to the Senate since the Great Depression; and red state Dem candidates are notorious for coming up short after raising oodles of money and close polling against GOP incumbents who aren’t popular.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@davidslosttt Adbul is a uniquely controversial candidate. Plus, Rodgers retired from the House before the Trump era, so he is not tainted by some of the toxic votes other GOPers had to take.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@ECaliberSeven Like only winning the county you represent in Congress by 7 pts/17K out of 250K+ cast is no bueno. Her margin in Macomb was better!

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@ECaliberSeven Winning her home county of Oakland by ever so slightly more would’ve put her over the top.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@IAPolls2022 For the GOP, there was no US Senate primary and the gubernatorial primary wasn’t all that competitive. The Dem US Senate primary got national attention.

The disparity is a bad sign for the GOP, but not THAT bad of a sign.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@PatrickSvitek Spartz is an underperformer and in a blue wave year, her R+8 district would be somewhat close with a generic R running.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@JoshKraushaar Oakland also has a significant Arab and rural populations. Plus, the area around Royal Oak is basically Detroit’s analog of Montclair, NJ. Still, in another time, Stevens would have been expected to win Oakland in a blowout.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@AaronBlake We’ve reached George W. Bush 2006-2007 numbers

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@BleacherReport thanks for another push notification about Aiyuk crashing out on social media. But have you considered that I could just follow him if I were truly interested in watching a CTE patient throw a hissy fit?

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@danieljohnbryan You’re smart enough to know that someone of his means has a financial planner making stock trades.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@FedEx @FedEx I think I am a victim of fraud. Please help.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@FedEx I received an email that someone changed my delivery instructions. I gave no one permission to do that. The email says to call customer service, and when I do that, I get sucked down a rabbit hole of automated agents who don't help me and eventually hang up on me.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@electionsjoe The OR GOP being run by a bunch of ranchers whose politics is a better fit for Idaho has also been a problem for them.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@alexanderbolton 2028 US Senate election in PA poll (1/11-1/13/28):

Generic Dem: 40%
Generic GOP: 35%
Fetterman (Ind.): 15%
Undecided: 10%

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@RebeccaForNJ07 How so you know that it is him and not a financial advisor doing the trading?

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@NateSilver538 But is he popular with Repubs bc they agree with him most of the time or because they like that he’s a Dem who bucks progressive orthodoxy on Israel, support for DSA candidates, etc.? If the latter, then I doubt Republicans would support him vs. a more conservative candidate.

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@PatrickRuffini If the 2028 election is Rubio vs. someone like Newsom or AOC, NJ is absolutely in play

[Ignatius J. Reilly @MittRomney_stan]

@davidslosttt Lib version:

NC senate (very realistic this year)

Center-left indy in a red state senate race

R+5 House district with a Freedom Caucus incumbent

Any statewide office in Florida