$BTC | Weekly Open Analysis
Before we dive into the levels & areas I am paying attention towards, lets focus on what BTC done last week.
Last weeks recap:
$BTC swept 112K lows & pushed to 117K. In the process, we took out range low longs whilst taking out late shorts on the increase. So, whats next?
First & foremost, I observe things from a liquidity perspective. I look at what direction has been f*cked & who is the next target. I think like a predator, not prey. As now, BTC on the LTF is structurely bearish. We swept the 112K lows & then deviated above the monthly open resulting in a rejection back down to range lows. This is not what you call "Bullish".
However, we have some good news. $BTC has formed a gap at 116.8K. This means that we have a high chance of testing the 116.8K region at some point... it just might take some time.
As of now, $BTC needs to reclaim the weekly open at 113.4K. If we can hold above the WO, we push into the liquidity imbalance which was formed over the weekend. Below the weekly open is dangerous. It leaves the doors open for additional retests back down to previous weekly lows I have marked.
To break things down simply, we need to reclaim the weekly open to validate pushing higher. Below = Danger zone for longs & more possible hunts.
I will be looking for scalp shorts on $BTC at 116.8K only because we formed a exhaustion gap.
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@trader_koala This bull market is slow and therefore does not yet attract enough participants. When there is an explosive part, the participants will appear...
BTC rallied to 124.5k and then down to 112.5k, driven by liquidations.
It's been overly speculative.
The real Q is what are investors doing? MCR Risk Signal is dropping, hinting at investor liquidity returning.
If the trend continues, BTC is in great shape to move higher.
$ETH is coiled under a massive broadening wedge, sharp drawdown, then a violent V-shaped recovery, and tension building like a spring.
This isn’t distribution. It’s compression.
And when compression resolves under resistance it erupts.
The breakout won’t be polite.
WLF fam — it’s time.
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New @VitalikButerin blog post on replacing the EVM with RISC-V in the long-term.
I am a huge fan of this direction for Ethereum's execution layer.
Today, RISC-V zkVMs like SP1 are the clear endgame solution for "ZK-ifying" Ethereum and quickly becoming the de-facto solution for ZK EVM. But as Vitalik cites in this post, our research at Succinct shows that the EVM is an extremely inefficient ISA for ZK proving.
This proposal to migrate the execution layer directly to RISC-V can be viewed as migrating to "native" code for a ZK world as opposed to living in an interpreted world that imposes between 100-1000x overhead. By replacing EVM with RISC-V for the execution layer, we can up the gas limit on L1 by orders of magnitude (assuming optimization of other bottlenecks like a more zkVM friendly state merkleization format), while preserving verifiability.
Link to full blog post below.
ETH has passed every major update flawlessly. Gas is now below 1 gwei, thanks to a recent 30% block size increase with zero issues.
Pectra is on the horizon to massively improve UX, and Rabby keeps the EVM safe and fun.
Liquidity is robust, protocols are mature and profitable, and the on-chain economy remains largely on ETH mainnet.
L2s do their job (though they underpay for blob inclusion and deserve a higher tax), and inflation is low and sustainable.
Every major whale and institution, up to the POTUS, has been, or soon will be, onboarded into the EVM ecosystem.
A Staked ETH ETF is a sexy product for them.
Plus, the foundation has made significant internal changes, and @Etherealize_io is emerging as a second, more business-focused entity led by true chads, set to supercharge adoption.
This is the Wei.