Miyagi Crypto

Are you ready young grasshopper? Crypto Since 2017 #WAGMI

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

We are not seeing significant levels of defaults in the housing market

There is a reason home prices are still at highs

[Quiver Quantitative @QuiverQuant]

BREAKING: We just caught another interesting trade.

Representative August Pfluger just filed a purchase of stock in an oil company called Viper Energy, $VNOM.

Pfluger sits on the House Committee on Energy.

He also sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

China controls almost 95 to 99% of the global yttrium supply. In 2025 they put restrictions on it and created a big shortage for the US. Yttrium is used in aerospace alloys, defense applications, semiconductors, lasers, and ceramics. $USAR to $30 to $50 in 1 to 2 years.

[Andy ττ @bittingthembits]

The supply side of is fixed and decelerating. 3,600 $TAO per day. Halving every four years. Recycling and burning reducing effective supply further.

The demand side is structural and expanding. 100+ subnet pools each requiring $TAO as base liquidity. 68% of supply staked. Growing wallet counts at every tier. Institutional validators committing hundreds of millions. Agents entering the network and creating new demand for subnet commodities priced in $TAO.

The free float is thin and getting thinner. Roughly 3.4 million $TAO available and 300 new wallets are competing for it every day.

I have also not shown enough how early this is in context. 222,289 wallets. For a network that is building the infrastructure layer for autonomous AI agents. For context, Ethereum had roughly 100 million addresses at its peak. Solana has tens of millions. We are at 222K. The account growth chart is already exponential, and the network has barely begun to penetrate mainstream awareness.

The validators tell you who understands this. Kraken, Polychain, DCG/Yuma, Opentensor Foundation these entities do not stake tens of millions of dollars into networks they expect to decline. They stake into networks they expect to become foundational infrastructure.

Every month, the wallet data comes out, and every tier has grown. Every month, the validator table shows more $TAO locked. Every month, the subnet count rises, and more AMM pools absorb $TAO. Every month, the free float compresses while daily emission stays fixed at 3,600.

I keep making the case for the products because the products are extraordinary. But the truth is even if you ignore every subnet, every agent, every Harvard collaboration, every Forbes article, the pure tokenomics of a 21M fixed-supply asset with 68% staked, 3,600 daily emission, 100+ demand sinks, institutional validators, and 33-75% annual growth in every wallet tier already makes the case by itself.

The products make it stronger. The on-chain data makes it undeniable.

The numbers do not have opinions. They just tell you what is happening. And what is happening is accumulation at every level, by every type of participant, through every market condition, three months into a post-halving supply cut.

The supply shock is not coming. It has been building since December. The data just makes it harder to deny with every passing month.

$TAO

Not financial advice. DYOR.

[UB @CryptoUB]

Bitcoin / $BTC

With the reclaim of $66.2k the thought process is pretty simple.

Hold $66.2k = good.
Fail to hold = not good.

Continued long arguments above.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

Countries are passing laws requiring state ID in order to use social media ("protecting kids" is the pretext), but the real effect is to track everyone online .

It upsets some when I say it, but @TaylorLorenz has been one of the few reporting on and warning about this danger.

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

NEW: Dutch Parliament Member Michel Hoogeveen explains how the 36% unrealized capital gains tax, just passed by the House of Representatives, will work.

Here is a more detailed example:

Step 1. Starting position
You own 500 shares.

Value on Jan 1, 2028: €50,000
Value on Jan 1, 2029: €100,000

So the paper gain is:

€100,000 − €50,000 = €50,000 unrealized profit

You did not sell. But for tax purposes, that €50,000 is treated as income.

Step 2. Apply exemption
You are married, so you get a €3,600 exemption.

€50,000 − €3,600 = €46,400 taxable amount

Tax rate: 36%

€46,400 × 36% = €16,704 tax bill

That bill is due in May, even though you never sold anything.

Step 3. Market falls before you pay
Now suppose by May the shares drop in value.

New total value: €60,000

So your portfolio is no longer worth €100,000. It’s worth €60,000.

But the tax bill is still €16,704, because it was calculated based on the January 1 valuation.

Step 4. You must sell shares to pay tax
To raise €16,704, you sell part of your shares.

After paying the tax, you’re left with:

€60,000 − €16,704 = €43,296

Originally you had 500 shares.
Now you have 360 shares left.

You were forced to sell 140 shares.

140 ÷ 500 = 28% of your shares gone.

Step 5. What happened economically?

Before the correction:
Paper gain was €50,000.

After the correction:
Portfolio is worth €60,000.
Original cost basis was €50,000.
Real gain is only €10,000.

But you paid €16,704 in tax.

So instead of being up €10,000, you are now:

€43,296 − €50,000 = €6,704 below your original starting value.

You turned a €10,000 real gain into a €6,704 net loss.

And you lost 28% of your shares permanently.

[Joey Mannarino @JoeyMannarino]

HOLY CRAP!!

Telegram just sent this message to all the users in Spain. The country is on its way to North Korean censorship.

❗️ The government of Pedro Sánchez is promoting new dangerous regulations that threaten your freedoms on the Internet. Announced yesterday, these measures could turn Spain into a surveillance state under the pretext of "protection." Here I explain why they are a red alarm signal for freedom of expression and privacy:

1. Prohibition of social networks for children under 16 years of age with mandatory age verification: This is not just about children - it requires platforms to use strict controls, such as requiring ID or biometrics.

⚠️ Danger: Establish a precedent to track the identity of EACH user, eroding anonymity and opening doors to massive data collection. What begins with minors could be extended to everyone, stifling the open debate.

2. Personal and criminal liability for platform executives: If "illegal, hateful or harmful" content is not quickly removed, those responsible could go to jail.

⚠️ Danger: This will force overcensorship—the platforms will erase anything minimally controversial to avoid risks, silencing political dissent, journalism and everyday opinions. Your voice could be next if you defy the status quo.

3. Criminalization of algorithmic amplification: Amplifying "harmful" content through algorithms becomes a crime.

⚠️ Danger: Governments will dictate what you see, burying opposing opinions and creating state-controlled echo chambers. Free exploration of ideas? Missing—replaced by curated propaganda.

4. Follow-up of the "hateful and polarization": Platforms must monitor and report how they "feed the division."

⚠️ Danger: Vague definitions of "hate" could label criticism of the government as divisive, leading to closures or fines. This can be a tool to suppress the opposition.

These are not safeguards; they are steps towards total control. We have seen this script before—governments arming "security" to censor their critics. At Telegram, we prioritize your privacy and freedom: strong encryption, no backdoors and resistance to excess.

✊ Stay vigilant, Spain. Demand transparency and fight for your rights. Share this widely—before it's too late

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

BREAKING: Grok 4.20 just took the #1 spot on PredictionArena. 🥇

It is the only AI in profit, while every other model is sitting at a loss on the initial investment. While competitors burn capital, Grok is actively generating gains in real prediction markets.

[Dylan Allman @dylanmallman]

We are living through a moment where a group of people do not just disagree, they do not even acknowledge a shared fundamental reality.

There is no common frame of reference, no mutual set of facts from which discourse can even begin. They can watch the same video, from multiple angles, and walk away convinced they saw a completely different event.

They exist inside a narrative so deeply entrenched that to question it, to even acknowledge a contradiction, is to commit some sort of ideological treason.

This is a deliberate, conditioned immunity to contradiction. It is a cultivated resistance to evidence. They have developed a mind so thoroughly welded to its chosen reality that it will alter, discard, or fabricate whatever it must to maintain coherence.

They can be shown, in real time, the unraveling of their worldview, and they will patch over the holes with fantasy rather than face any doubt whatsoever.

Politics has turned knowledge itself into a partisan weapon. The expectation is no longer to seek truth, but to defend your team at all costs.

There is a lingering obligation to have an opinion on everything, to be informed at all times, to adopt the correct stance. And so, they improvise. They adopt prefabricated opinions handed down by their faction. They fill in the gaps with instinctive loyalty rather than demonstrating any semblance of independent thought.

The game is rigged, and they know it. Two parties, two choices, two sides that everyone is herded into, and neither is worth the loyalty demanded of them.

But to acknowledge this would be to admit powerlessness, to admit that they are trapped in an illusion of choice. So they cope. They retroactively justify their allegiance by turning their side into something righteous, infallible, and necessary. The alternative is too terrifying.

It is a coping mechanism turned mass psychosis. And it is escalating. When reality itself is dictated by allegiance, when loyalty outranks reason, when every fact must be bent into submission to fit the tribe’s chosen narrative, the outcome is inevitable: war.

When factions exist in separate realities, they cannot coexist. They cannot negotiate, they cannot reason, they cannot even comprehend the other side as anything but a threat.

This is irreconcilable. We cannot function like this. A society cannot sustain itself when its people are no longer individuals but ideological husks, possessed by abstractions, fighting battles for masters who do not even know their names.

You are not your faction. You are not your party. You are not an extension of a collective mind.

The moment you outsource your thinking, the moment you allow yourself to believe that your side must be right because the alternative is unbearable, you have ceased to be an individual. You have become another interchangeable pawn in a game that does not need you to think, only to obey.

Wake up. This war for reality is not one you want to be drafted into.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

🇳🇱 If this happens, you’ll understand what really happened in the UK, and the true reason this legislation exists.

This is not just about Bitcoin. It applies to all financial assets in the Netherlands.

The result is predictable: an exodus of millionaires and billionaires to jurisdictions like Dubai.

Exactly what happened in the UK.

This then leads to distressed public finances and austerity.

Enter the IMF, private credit, private equity, or Gulf sovereign wealth funds.

Such a capital flight strengthens Gulf sovereign wealth funds, which can ultimately move in to acquire strategic national assets alongside the financial industrial complex, such as the Netherlands’ vital semiconductor supply chain.

The Netherlands is the most important country after Taiwan in the semiconductor chip supply chain, one that the financial-industrial complex (FIC), technical-industrial complex (TIC), and military-industrial complex (MIC) all rely upon.

This is the FIC, in partnership with Gulf sovereign wealth funds, operating in alignment with China, positioning themselves to benefit from Europe’s inevitable economic decline, infrastructure decay, and distressed asset acquisitions.

This is reverse colonisation.

🇬🇧 The UK was the beta test.

The Netherlands is the potential next target.
If it succeeds there, it will be scaled globally.

Taxing unrealised gains is not economic ignorance. It is not a mistake.
It is a deliberate act of economic sabotage.

The design is simple: policies are lobbied into place so assets are forced into distress. Those assets are then acquired through tax-efficient structures, often via corporate shells that avoid paying unrealised gains altogether.

This is not incompetence.

This is strategy from a vassalised and subordinated FIC-controlled state.

Follow the money 💰

[Bluntz @Bluntz_Capital]

wholeheartedly agree, not only does #uranium look technically amazing but were talking about a literal DECADE LONG structural deficit.

this isnt gonna be a hit it and quit it play, im talking about a literal 10 year bull market.

https://t.co/9wie8q3Rto

[Quiver Quantitative @QuiverQuant]

NEW: We just released a report on a congressional stock trade that caught our eye.

Watch here:

[6529 @punk6529]

1/ On Losing Faith

Is it over?
Was it all a fever dream?
Have we run out of steam?
Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time?

2/ Everything is dead?

BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares
ETH: Stablecoin
Alts: Crushed
NFTs: Right click saved
Meme coins: As expected tbh
Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over"

3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment.

Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead.

No narrative, no spark, nothing.

4/ Why?

I read the timeline and it tells me:

a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC)

and

b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this

5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like
"fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness.

Like boredom, to be honest.

I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology.

6/ I have a different view of what is going on.

I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter.

7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all.

Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work.

8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this.

Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant.

This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp

9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action.

It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system.

10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State

Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant.

It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically.

11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO.

"there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential"

12/ I mean, maybe that is true.

I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think.

But it is cringe, and it is wrong.

13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world.

14/

Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious

Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC

15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government"

At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare

16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah"

No my brothers and sisters.

The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization

Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security)

17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet.

But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles.

CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT.

18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you:

EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also"

UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along"

China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here"

Russia: "someone falls out of a window"

19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst.

This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged.

20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them.

The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain.

And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell"

21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about.

When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not.

21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system"

22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero.

In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship.

These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi.

23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer.

24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like.

If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder.

25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails.

I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive.

Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer).

26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring

27/ So what to do?

The same things you always should do:

a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization.

many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today.

b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins.

you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self.

28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it)

I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect.

29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must.

And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for.

I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too.

30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world.

31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game.

32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok.

33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps.

Get back to working.

34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system.

Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going.

If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived

35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world.

Did you make a "mistake"?

Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win.

This is how it goes.

36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE

37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters.

if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok.

i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does.

/the end

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

This Is the Weekly Zone You Want Bitcoin to Hold.

If you want the level that actually matters right now,
it’s not the meme lines, not the intraday FVGs, not the noise… It’s the reclaimed weekly range between ~90K and ~108K.

Let me explain why, clearly, logically, and with high-timeframe precision.

The Macro Reality (Weekly Scale)

The true macro range for BTC right now is: $74K → $126K. That’s the broad, cyclical container of the entire 3-year bull market.

But inside that macro structure sits a critically important micro-HTF range… The Forgotten Weekly Range: $90K → $108K

This is the range everyone drew for months: November through February, with clean weekly highs and lows, a multi-week balance, and a major acceptance zone.

Then came the breakdown. BTC lost the entire box in early March. That was the scary moment. That was the moment everyone screamed, “It’s over.” “Top is in.” “Macro distribution!” “New bear market confirmed.”

And to be fair… staying below that range for 8 straight weeks made those emotions feel justified.

But many usually forget that the Bullish Flip matters on that scale.

BTC didn’t just crawl back above the 90–108K range... It reclaimed the entire zone AND "cleanly" broke structure above it.

That is exactly what you want from weekly signals.

A range that was: support → lost → reclaimed → then taken with a weekly BoS… "SHOULD" become validated HTF demand. It becomes the bull zone reclaimed from the bears. This is why this zone matters for me and perhaps more than people realize.

Why Losing This Zone Now Is Very Different From Losing It Then

When the range was first lost in March, it was a test down into macro support. But now?

Now the range has been: reclaimed, accepted, structurally confirmed, and used as a launchpad to $124–126K

So losing it again is not the same thing.

Losing it now would invalidate the reclaim and weaken the entire high-timeframe trend.

It opens the door to: macro mid-range tests, multi-month drift, possible cyclical topping behavior, & loss of confidence at the weekly scale

This is why bulls should want to defend it. It’s the zone they took back. It’s the zone that confirmed the uptrend. It’s the zone that makes the structure still bullish.

And Let’s Not Forget How Quickly People Forget…

Remember the range between 74K and 80K earlier this year? BTC spent 8 weeks inside that range (Feb → early Apr).

And what did everyone say then? “It’s over.” “It’s done.” “The top is in.” “Distribution confirmed.”

Sound familiar?

The structure isn’t identical to the 74–80K range earlier this year, but the early high-timeframe rhythm is similar: multi-week balance → breakdown… and now we watch to see if a reclaim forms as it did then.

People panic in the box and then chase the expansion.
It’s happening again, at a higher altitude.

The point is this, if the powers-that-be want higher prices, this is the zone that needs to hold (on weekly-close). They fought to reclaim it. They printed a weekly BOS above it. They proved the down-move was a deviation.

Giving it up now isn’t smart, isn’t efficient, and invites deeper structural damage than necessary.

But holding here keeps the HTF bullish structure and dream alive, it clears the path toward 115–120K again,
and preserves the case for a continuation leg.

We’ve seen markets follow this kind of rhythm before, a multi-week balance, a breakdown, panic, then a reclaim that shifts the whole structure. Whether Bitcoin chooses to repeat that sequence or carve a different path… that part is still unwritten.

All eyes on the weekly close, that is likely where the market reveals its intent.

[TMT Breakout @TMTBreakout]

The Non-Bubble that disappointed both Bulls and Bears -- how Sam's Splurge changed everything

The worst kept secret among Tech market participants — just something AI bulls don’t admit out loud: they want a price-action bubble every bit as much as the bears do.

Both want to see that steep, “blow-off” ascent that characterizes parabolic tops. Why? The AI bulls are all fully loaded for a vertical melt-up and AI bears want the aftermath so they can yell “I told you so.”

It’s obvious to AI bulls (us included) that we’re not in an AI bubble. The non-argument is simple: valuations are reasonable (NVDA near 20x), the equity risk premium is almost 300bps above where it troughed in the tech bubble, operating margins are rich, and we’re still very early in the demand/build out of the AI supercycle.

But bulls will typically follow this argument up by saying “‘it’s more like ‘97/’98.”

Implicit in that statement is that they’re hoping the inevitable outcome is a ‘97-’99 style ramp, with all hoping it would occur as soon as possible. Why? The simplest answer is usually the right one: everyone likes bigger bonuses as soon as possible.

Stated succinctly: the “AI bubble” ascent was the paradigm that both bulls and bears were operating under for most of this year, or longer.

Bad news for the AI bulls and bears: the past few weeks has brought an end to that paradigm and led us to an unexpected turning point in the dynamics of the AI trade/narrative. On the 3 year anniversary of ChatGPT’s release, no less.

And we have Sam’s $1.4T 30GW splurge to thank for it.

Sam’s Splurge (we’ll call it “SS”) opened up AI “pandora’s box,” shifting the AI narrative in unexpected ways.

First, the overarching discussion has shifted to a greater focus on OAI’s ability to monetize and what that means across the Tech ecosystem, from ad platforms to software/services companies to GPUs to infra hosting like ORCL. Despite the behemoth it already is, the market began to appreciate it was taking implicit bets on what is still a 3 year old start up industry/company.

Second, SS and connected deals brought more focus to the interconnectedness of the whole ecosystem, OAI’s outsized role in it, circular financing, and “too big too fail” discussions.

The interconnectedness of the AI ecosystem📷
Third, SS and his “Give us a few months and it’ll all make sense … We are not as crazy as it seems. There is a plan.” opened up discussions about government’s role in AI. While government intervention would help accelerate the AI buildout, it also opened a doorway of investor doubt. Reader CIO At CG expressed these opposite outcomes well in TMTB Chat:

“It’s bullish if/when it happens. But until it happens it creates doubt if it is gravy (more upside) or if it’s needed to execute the 1trn+ commitments. Any doubts on ability to execute the 1.4trn is just bearish sentiment vis-à-vis today. So Friar opened a door that was closed. And by opening it, it opened both the left and right side of the distribution. It also makes people realize that they are too big to fail: if they fail to execute they will bring the entire ecosystem multiple down. And hard.”

Fourth, the sheer scale of the SS $1.4T plan, which is nearly the size of the whole private credit market, nudged both public and private lenders to reprice AI-linked risk, most notably seen in the rise of Oracle and Coreweaves’ CDS spreads. At the same time, off-balance-sheet structures—e.g., Meta’s $27B Hyperion SPV with Blue Owl— didn’t help by concentrating risk with private creditors and muddying system-wide leverage mapping.

The ironic thing is, if SS would have been half the size, things would have continued to grind along, investors would have enjoyed the ‘27 and ‘28 visibility, maybe even building the energy for a large vertical ascent in price action. Instead, it had the opposite effect: pouring too much gasoline on the fire and drowning out the energy for a big move up.

Fifth — by locking in commitments eight years out, SS dragged the long-horizon AI debate into the present. Over the last few weeks I’ve heard an increasing amount of bulls give voice to risks they’ve been able to normally wave away over the first 3 years of the AI trade, in an unusual sign of humility. Some of the key existential questions that now feel more present in the discussion:

How does the grid support the post-’28/’29 buildouts and what about water, land use, and local pushback? We’ve already heard of local governments slowing DC buildouts, and this week the WSJ wrote how Bernie and others are dialing up scrutiny of Data CentersIf inference moves to phones/PCs/cars, how does that rebalance hyperscaler capex, useful life assumptions, and who captures value? What’s the risk of stranded assets if models plateau or workloads shift to cheaper/edge solutions?The AI catch-22 no bulls want to talk about: If enterprise agents and automation work as advertised, what’s the path for unemployment and wages? If white-collar unemployment rises, what happens to ad spend and consumer wallets — remembering that GOOGLE and META are cyclically exposed ad businesses at their core? How does the seep into their top line and capex trajectory? If AI models don’t deliver, do we get a capex hangover and productivity disappointment?All of this sits against a U.S. backdrop that’s still skeptical of AI — worried about job loss and asking for a slower, safer rollout — which can swing sentiment and policy quickly. Will the current administration still be as supportive of the AI rollout if sentiment and unemployment shift in a more negative direction?

These are issues that will be a lot more prominent in the next 3 years of the AI trade than they were in the first 3 years of the AI trade.

This all began to seep into the price action of AI stocks several weeks ago: ORCL giving back all of its “monster RPO” move and more, very speculative sectors like Nuclear/Quantum rolling over, and the AI ecosystem progressively rallying less and less on each Open AI deal that was announced.

It all culminated in the last two weeks. We can give thanks to some hawkish fed speak and Sam’s now infamous BG2 pod appearance for providing the spark needed to ignite the fire spreading. In a period of time where nothing has changed fundamentally in respects to the AI trade, the market began more heavily digesting the overarching effect of SS: more unknowns and more uncertainty in the minds of investors. After all, the market isn’t just a mechanism for discounting fundamentals and perceived risk, but also the current emotional state of participants. With belief shifting from inevitable euphoria (read: vertical ascent price action) to verification, SS has had the opposite effect of what Altman likely intended: more multiple compression and less belief in out year estimates.

With greater uncertainty, it’s no wonder certain pockets of the market have underperformed: names with perceived questionable business models / debt issues (ORCL, CRWV, NBIS, Miners, etc.), names with perceived AI top of funnel / structural issues (DUOL, MNDY), names with rising opex as the market is less confident in how long heightened spend will be here to stay (META).

It’s also no surprise that as the market digests these new developments, the profitability factor has outperformed while names with good narratives and fast growth but little in the way of valuation support have underperformed: NET, PLTR, SHOP, TSLA, U. This is also why memory has been so strong: EPS revisions are currently happening —> there’s nothing uncertain about opening up your favorite DRAM/NAND spot price checker, seeing how much DRAM/NAND has risen overnight, and plugging it into your model. These names are arguably more attractive in the current environment than they were before.

The market is currently doing what it always does after a narrative/paradigm shock: digest, recalibrate, reassign risk premia. NVDA EPS and Gemini 3 are the next events on the docket to absorb. We’re running low gross while we let the market do its thing, letting the overarching narrative/price action stabilize and become clearer.

@dylan522p at Semianalysis joked this week that time is now divided in BC (Before ChatGPT) and AD (After Da Launch of ChatGPT). We think the AI trade will eventually be divided between BSS (Before Sam’s Splurge) and ASS (After Sam’s Splurge). BSS and ASS.

Wait - that doesn’t have a nice a ring to it, so let’s say it differently. We think the straight-line giddy phase of the AI trade will give way to something healthier: a phase where fundamentals and idiosyncrasies matter even more. Tech will always be a narrative and boom and bust heavy investing sector (that’s part of the fun), but in a landscape where sentiment is more balanced, stock-picking will become more relevant. That’s a good thing.

SS popped the non-bubble. But the AI trade isn’t broken: it’s simply entering a more mature, scrutinized phase.

[hoeem @hooeem]

her: what are you thinking about

me thinking about how during the 10/10 crypto liquidation event some mysterious wallet got funded with 80-160 million USDC right before Trump's tariff post on China and then opened over a billion in shorts on BTC and ETH with perfect timing down to the minute and closed them at the exact bottom for 160-200 million profit which is impossible without insider info from Trump's circle since his family holds billions in WLFI tokens that dipped 25-30% but they bought back 1.4 million worth right after like they knew it was a setup to clean out leverage and then Binance and Bybit suddenly had "technical issues" freezing orders so traders couldn't close positions or buy the dip while the short whale executed flawlessly and at the same time oracles misfired prices causing stablecoins like USDE to de-peg to 0.65 only on Binance which triggered a cascade of unfair liquidations wiping 1.6 million accounts and 19-40 billion total but insurance funds barely budged and ADL kicked in clipping winners unevenly and market makers like Wintermute moved 700 million including 200 million BTC to Binance hours before like they were prepping the harvest and then data sites like Coinglass got hacked so no one could see the real numbers in real time and exchanges admitted to "system congestion" rejecting close orders with error codes -4118 -2022 -1008 while liquidations ran perfectly against retail and some positions got nuked 25x over even with low leverage because collateral was marked at bogus prints and then rumors spread of two massive trading firms going to zero forced to dump their entire top-100 token books in a fire sale amplifying the altcoin bloodbath down 50-80% in minutes and meanwhile the Chinese Loot Theory fits because Asia was sidelined all year by US narratives like ETFs that got delayed by the government shutdown so CZ launches Aster dex luring billions in OI from noobs right before Xi provokes Trump knowing it'd tank everything and loot the overleveraged longs waiting for SOL XRP DOGE ETFs that never came and then post-crash an invisible predator like a wounded whale or carcinogenic market maker keeps dumping majors into their own shorts suppressing recovery while crypto decouples from rising stocks just like FTX Alameda in 2022 dragging on for months disguised as a bear market and Binance might've orchestrated the whole thing by exploiting their own oracle vulnerabilities to de-peg USDE and cause the cascade specifically to take out Hyperliquid as a competitor but it backfired and now they're reviewing cases case-by-case promising comps benchmarked to midnight but only for that tiny depeg window ignoring the broader manipulation and the awful human cost of traders committing suicide the next day alongside hundreds of portfolios erased including funds that won't admit it publicly and the real winners were a handful of entities pocketing billions in zero-sum derivs while retail became collateral damage in a quiet war between giants and regulators never probe because it's all "just volatility" not negligence or coordination and the market's still acting weird with thin books and artificial pressure like someone's unwinding massive losses by selling non-existing BTC MtGox-style and no full logs or transparency ever gets published so it all smells like a highly coordinated harvest not a market event lmao what the fuck:

nothing babe

[UB @CryptoUB]

Solana / $SOL

Retest of the Daily Breakout point.

If price falls below, an easy setup is to wait for the reclaim of $165 for a long trigger.

No reclaim, no trade.

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

I Studied Every Chart on the Economy and Credit Cycle — What I Found Changed My Outlook Completely