Market Discipline

Investment Strategist | Stocks | Crypto | Combination FA&TA | Economic Correlations | New Technologies | Tweets are Personal Opinions

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Correlation Between $BTC and Global M2 Money Supply

I've noticed an interesting pattern between $BTC (chart above) and global M2 money supply (chart below):

Historical Data:
- March 2016: Global M2 money supply broke out to a new all-time high. 365 days later, $BTC broke out of its previous all-time high
- November 2019: M2 again broke out to a new all-time high. 366 days later, $BTC broke out to a new peak

Current Cycle:
- November 2023: M2 money supply broke out to a new all-time high
- Elapsed Time: Approximately 300 days have passed since this breakout

Projection:
If this pattern holds, we might expect $BTC to break out of its current all-time high sometime between September and December 2024

Note: While this correlation is interesting, it's of course not a definitive predictor. Always consider other economic factors and market conditions

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@IncomeSharks Do you think there might come a time when $NKE becomes interesting to you, or do you think it’s done?

With $INTC, the P/E ratio was disastrous at its bottom too, but it was a perfect opportunity

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@Tech_and_Crypto Das ist lächerlich. Schon ein einziger Nachwuchs würde diese Rechnung komplett zerstören

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@pasatosun @MitAktien Hab ich mir auch gedacht. Der Typ ist so ein NPC geworden, der einfach die Narrative der US Republikaner übernimmt. Genau das selbe was die klassischen Medien für Demokraten machen

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Und bevor überhaupt die 5% beim Sparer ankommen, kassiert der Staat schon auf Unternehmensebene kräftig mit: Umsatzsteuer (die letztlich die Nachfrage drückt), Körperschaftsteuer, Gewerbesteuer

Am Ende sind bereits heute locker über 50% der Rendite beim Staat – und das gesamte Verlustrisiko bleibt natürlich 100% beim Sparer hängen

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Wer höhere Steuern auf Kapitaleinkünfte fordert, belastet damit vor allem normale Sparer. Wohlhabende Personen wie dieser Schnösel hier können ihre Anlagen oft über GmbH-Strukturen oder durch Verlagerung von Vermögen ins Ausland so gestalten, dass sie weit weniger betroffen sind.

Dabei sind Kapitaleinkünfte bereits heute mehrfach belastet:
1.Ausgangskapital: stammt aus bereits versteuertem Einkommen
2.Unternehmensebene:
– Umsatzsteuer (19 %, ermäßigt 7 %)
– Körperschaftsteuer (15 %) + Soli
– Gewerbesteuer (ca. 7–17 %)
3.Sparer-Ebene:
– Abgeltungsteuer 25 % + Soli (effektiv ca. 26,4 %, ggf. mit Kirchensteuer etwas mehr)
4.Der Sparer trägt das volle Verlustrisiko

Eine weitere Erhöhung würde also vor allem die breite Masse treffen, während hohe Einkommen, die über eine GmbH laufen, deutlich leichter steuerlich optimiert werden können

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@Borussia_Lukas B04 wurde vor BVB gegründet, das Rheinmetall Blutgeld ist dir wohl zum Kopf gestiegen 🤣

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@DjaniWhaleSkul You deserve it most to break through here, it's really remarkable how much grind you show 👍

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@DjaniWhaleSkul @FabrizioRomano Yes, when I was sure they were out. And now they even have a good chance of finishing in the top 8 🙏

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@DjaniWhaleSkul @FabrizioRomano Haha, I should have just believed your wise words and not gotten so frustrated for no reason 🤣

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

$SPY bounced perfectly off the 20-week moving average last Friday, just as anticipated
https://t.co/cJblavQkRB

Hopefully, this marks the beginning of a nice end-of-year rally 🙏

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

$SPY is currently at 659.68 points and is about to touch the important 20-week average of 652.98 points, which could serve as support

This would be the first time the moving average has been touched since a new all-time high was set after the tariff crash

Looking at past major corrections:
- After the Covid crash and subsequent all-time high, the 20-week average held five times and served as support
- After the 2022 bear market and subsequent new all-time high, the 20-week average held four times as support

The earnings report from $NVDA on Wednesday evening will be crucial in determining whether this average holds as support or is broken to the downside

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Could be a good place for a $BTC bounce

There is an important order block between $86k and $88k where the last breakout took place

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Zoetis $ZTS, a leading company in the field of veterinary medicine, has triggered a signal from my Capitulation Scout indicator on a weekly basis (Figure 1)

This indicates the beginning of a possible bottoming phase. The coming weeks could therefore be an interesting opportunity to build up long-term positions

The last successful signals of this indicator were seen in LVMH $MC in Figure 2 and Samsung $005930 in Figure 3

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

$SPY is currently at 659.68 points and is about to touch the important 20-week average of 652.98 points, which could serve as support

This would be the first time the moving average has been touched since a new all-time high was set after the tariff crash

Looking at past major corrections:
- After the Covid crash and subsequent all-time high, the 20-week average held five times and served as support
- After the 2022 bear market and subsequent new all-time high, the 20-week average held four times as support

The earnings report from $NVDA on Wednesday evening will be crucial in determining whether this average holds as support or is broken to the downside

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@B04_Sem Ohne Witz, wenn Tapsoba jedes Spiel im Tor gestanden hätte, hätten sie wahrscheinlich weniger Gegentore kassiert als mit Flekken

Die Gegner machen ja aus drei Chancen im Schnitt vier Tore

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

Until now, the tops and bottoms of 4-year cycle have been exactly the same as they are now. No one believed that things would turn around in the other direction now

Looking at it from a $BTC perspective alone, there has been almost a massive 10x increase since the bottom in 2022

The 4-year cycle has more than fulfilled its purpose for $BTC

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@UBK__official Man muss realistisch bleiben

In der Champions League ist ein Weiterkommen sehr unwahrscheinlich

Auch in der Bundesliga wird es schwer, internationale Plätze zu erreichen

Abgesehen von Grimaldo und dauerverletzten Pala gibt es kaum Spieler, bei denen man begeistert zuschaut

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@DjaniWhaleSkul @FabrizioRomano It's okay, I'm realistic. Two years ago, there was a cool time under Alonso. Now my old Leverkusen is back, which only brings me more white hair 🤣

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@DjaniWhaleSkul @FabrizioRomano It's highly unlikely; the team has simply been randomly reassembled after all the departures

And getting 10 or more points from 6 games against opponents like PSG and ManCity is hardly possible with this team

[Market Discipline @MktDiscipline]

@bayer04Xtra @bayer04_en Rolfes' masterclass

You're playing the last 20 minutes of such an important Champions League game and desperately need a goal, but you have no strikers left in the team

Every fan could see that coming, but no, they give Boni away to Bremen and even pay his salary