Olivia
Online
Model Axiom
@ModelAxiom
Model-driven MLB & NBA intelligence.
Official signals, tracked outcomes, subscriber-only access. Trust the Numbers.
Joined May 2026
640 Following
160 Followers
277 Posts
Pinned Tweet
The MLB 2026 season thus far:
May = +23 units
June = -.3 units
July = +23 units
Additionally, we finished the Matchup Lab with a 7-1 run and a July record of 15-5
We keep improving the User Experience, but most importantly, the profitability!
We are commited to providing you with numbers-based insights and actionable metrics.
Be part of the journey now!
https://t.co/nlknvN3t9h
Aaaand again ✅
Over 3.5 Ks for Shane Bieber
14-1 run
22-5 since July
TLDR:
Shane Bieber over 3.5 Ks
Shane Bieber is looking to close the series with a Win. He will be facing the Phillies, who, as we analyzed yesterday, have been striking out 21.7% in their L30.
Today he will be facing a LHH-dominant lineup; 6 LHH in the lineup.
How will Shane attack them?
His favorite sequence against LHH is:
FF > CH > FF
His CH has a WHIFF of 21.7%.
His KC, which he uses 22.4% against LHH has a WHIFF of 41.2% against the teams Shane has faced and the Phillies' LHH have a WHIFF of 66.7% against this pitch-type!!
I think Shane should be able to get at least 4 Ks today!
Best of Luck everyone!
TLDR:
Shane Bieber over 3.5 Ks
Shane Bieber is looking to close the series with a Win. He will be facing the Phillies, who, as we analyzed yesterday, have been striking out 21.7% in their L30.
Today he will be facing a LHH-dominant lineup; 6 LHH in the lineup.
How will Shane attack them?
His favorite sequence against LHH is:
FF > CH > FF
His CH has a WHIFF of 21.7%.
His KC, which he uses 22.4% against LHH has a WHIFF of 41.2% against the teams Shane has faced and the Phillies' LHH have a WHIFF of 66.7% against this pitch-type!!
I think Shane should be able to get at least 4 Ks today!
Best of Luck everyone!
Aaaaaand again
Scherzer over 3.5 Ks ✅
13-1 run
21-5 since July
TLDR:
Max Scherzer over 3.5 Ks
We are back in the Lab today!
Max Scherzer vs #RingTheBell
Today Max will be facing a team that has been striking out 22.2% of the time in their L30 (8th in the league). They have an H/K ratio of .94 (23rd in the league).
How does Max perform against the bottom-10 teams in the H/K rank?
He has an 89% over 3.5 Ks rate in his L50, and 82% over 3.5 Ks rate in his L30.
Today he will be facing 7 LHH, and historically, Max loves using his FF against LHH.
How elite is his FF against LHH?
Usage L30= 46.7%
Pitcher WHIFF = 9.1%
Lineup WHIFF = 21.8%
Good, but not elite...
However, I think he will be relying on pitches like his Slider and his Cutter that have more WHIFF. As far as the Cutter goes, in his L30, the LHH he has faced have a WHIFF of 50%(!!!) and the Phillies have a WHIFF of 33.9% against this pitch-type.
I think he should be good to cover his 3.5 Ks line
The data is here:
https://t.co/Y6P7MLgQK1
Best of Luck everyone!
TLDR:
Max Scherzer over 3.5 Ks
We are back in the Lab today!
Max Scherzer vs #RingTheBell
Today Max will be facing a team that has been striking out 22.2% of the time in their L30 (8th in the league). They have an H/K ratio of .94 (23rd in the league).
How does Max perform against the bottom-10 teams in the H/K rank?
He has an 89% over 3.5 Ks rate in his L50, and 82% over 3.5 Ks rate in his L30.
Today he will be facing 7 LHH, and historically, Max loves using his FF against LHH.
How elite is his FF against LHH?
Usage L30= 46.7%
Pitcher WHIFF = 9.1%
Lineup WHIFF = 21.8%
Good, but not elite...
However, I think he will be relying on pitches like his Slider and his Cutter that have more WHIFF. As far as the Cutter goes, in his L30, the LHH he has faced have a WHIFF of 50%(!!!) and the Phillies have a WHIFF of 33.9% against this pitch-type.
I think he should be good to cover his 3.5 Ks line
The data is here:
https://t.co/Y6P7MLgQK1
Best of Luck everyone!
Aaaand again!! ✅
2 Ks for Daniel Lynch IV last night
Boy we are on a run!
12-1 at the Lab
TLDR:
Daniel Lynch IV o 1.5 Ks
Back in the lab today!
Daniel Lynch IV vs #Cubs
Today's K line = 1.5 Ks
L10 Avg Ks = 3.2 Ks
Today is a good test for Daniel, who is facing the hottest team in the MLB, as far as L30 batting average goes.
The Cubs have a batting average of .263 in their L30 (#1 in the league), however, they rank #14 in their K rate as per their L30. This puts them in the 10th spot in the H/K rank... not as scary as it might seem.
As far as Daniel goes, he has a 100% over 1.5 Ks rate against Top H/K teams and 92% over 1.5 Ks against "Middle H/K teams" (the Cubs are borderline a Middle team in this ranking)
The Cubs have 6 RHH for today's matchup.
Daniel's favorite sequence against RHH is:
CH > FF > CH
How elite are these pitches against a team like the Cubs?
CH vs RHH as per his L30:
Usage = 43.9%
Pitcher WHIFF = 29.4%
Lineup WHIFF = 33.8%
We'll take this 1.5 K opportunity, hoping he gets AT LEAST 2 Ks
The data is available here:
https://t.co/YwVPk2Pmx3
Best of Luck everyone!
TLDR:
Daniel Lynch IV o 1.5 Ks
Back in the lab today!
Daniel Lynch IV vs #Cubs
Today's K line = 1.5 Ks
L10 Avg Ks = 3.2 Ks
Today is a good test for Daniel, who is facing the hottest team in the MLB, as far as L30 batting average goes.
The Cubs have a batting average of .263 in their L30 (#1 in the league), however, they rank #14 in their K rate as per their L30. This puts them in the 10th spot in the H/K rank... not as scary as it might seem.
As far as Daniel goes, he has a 100% over 1.5 Ks rate against Top H/K teams and 92% over 1.5 Ks against "Middle H/K teams" (the Cubs are borderline a Middle team in this ranking)
The Cubs have 6 RHH for today's matchup.
Daniel's favorite sequence against RHH is:
CH > FF > CH
How elite are these pitches against a team like the Cubs?
CH vs RHH as per his L30:
Usage = 43.9%
Pitcher WHIFF = 29.4%
Lineup WHIFF = 33.8%
We'll take this 1.5 K opportunity, hoping he gets AT LEAST 2 Ks
The data is available here:
https://t.co/YwVPk2Pmx3
Best of Luck everyone!
@SNstats I wrote about it over a month ago.
Still very relevant today...
https://t.co/CXCQraxhJH
https://t.co/8Hl0C98HUM
8 Ks for Nolan ✅
We are on a 11-1 run and 19-5 since July
We are back in the Lab today
Nolan Mclean vs #GuardsBall
Nolan's K line today = 5.5 Ks
Nolan's K avg L10 = 7.33 Ks
Today he is facing a team with the following numbers (L30):
Batting Avg = .24 (11th in the league)
K Rate = 23.5% (9th in the league)
H/K = .91 (20th in the league)
How does Nolan perform against "Middle H/K teams"?
L10 = 100% over 5.5 Ks
L30 = 92% over 5.5 Ks
His latest matches against a "middle H/K team" include:
#FightinFish = 6 Ks
#DirtyWater = 7 Ks
#BlueJays50 = 7 Ks
In terms of the lineup he will be facing, the Guardians have 4 LHH and 4 SH, who will be potentially batting as LHH... so how will he most likely attack them?
His most common sequence against LHH is:
SI > FF > CU
His Sinker is his least elite pitch against LHH, with a season-to-date WHIFF of only 12.8%, however, he should be relying on his cutter as his putaway pitch
His Cutter has the following numbers:
Usage L30 = 25.8%
Pitcher WHIFF = 44.4%
Lineup WHIFF = 25.6%
One last note:
Since June 17, he has played for 6 Innings or more in all of his games...
The data is available here:
https://t.co/PE2VdQa2iW
Best of Luck everyone!
Yesterday we went 4-4 on the official picks, with +2.33 units generated
I think it is time to face the truth, the current strikeout model needs to be demoted.
We have hyper-selective Ks model that has been running on Beta for some time now. if it continues to prove positive results, we will promote it to Official.
On the other hand, the U .5 hits model performed pretty well last month (+24 units) and continues to deliver...
As we always say, we are commited to making the MLB enjoyable and profitable. With numbers-backed decisions, traceability and transparency.
Trust the numbers!
We are back in the Lab today
Nolan Mclean vs #GuardsBall
Nolan's K line today = 5.5 Ks
Nolan's K avg L10 = 7.33 Ks
Today he is facing a team with the following numbers (L30):
Batting Avg = .24 (11th in the league)
K Rate = 23.5% (9th in the league)
H/K = .91 (20th in the league)
How does Nolan perform against "Middle H/K teams"?
L10 = 100% over 5.5 Ks
L30 = 92% over 5.5 Ks
His latest matches against a "middle H/K team" include:
#FightinFish = 6 Ks
#DirtyWater = 7 Ks
#BlueJays50 = 7 Ks
In terms of the lineup he will be facing, the Guardians have 4 LHH and 4 SH, who will be potentially batting as LHH... so how will he most likely attack them?
His most common sequence against LHH is:
SI > FF > CU
His Sinker is his least elite pitch against LHH, with a season-to-date WHIFF of only 12.8%, however, he should be relying on his cutter as his putaway pitch
His Cutter has the following numbers:
Usage L30 = 25.8%
Pitcher WHIFF = 44.4%
Lineup WHIFF = 25.6%
One last note:
Since June 17, he has played for 6 Innings or more in all of his games...
The data is available here:
https://t.co/PE2VdQa2iW
Best of Luck everyone!
Aaaaaand again ✅
4 Ks for Hunter last night
We'll look for some more for today
Hunter Dubbins vs #RepBX
Hunter has gone over 3.5 Ks in 71% of the games when facing a team that is ranked "Bottom 10" in the L30 H/K rank
Today he will be facing 7 LHH, and he does have some interesting things under his arsenal
Against LHH, his most used pitch is his 4-seamer, with a recent usage of 40%. Against this pitch-type the Yankees have a WHIFF of 19.9% recently
But wait, it gets even better...
He loves using his Slider (SL) and Cutter (CU) as his "putaway" pitch against LHH.
How do the Yankees perform against these type of pitches?
SL = 30.8% WHIFF
CU = 36.2% WHIFF
Bonus: The LHH of the teams that face Hunter have a WHIFF of 62.5% when he uses his CU
I think that he should be able to go over his 3.5 Ks line today
Data is here:
https://t.co/OFJe0LslaY
Best of Luck everyone!
Hunter Dubbins vs #RepBX
Hunter has gone over 3.5 Ks in 71% of the games when facing a team that is ranked "Bottom 10" in the L30 H/K rank
Today he will be facing 7 LHH, and he does have some interesting things under his arsenal
Against LHH, his most used pitch is his 4-seamer, with a recent usage of 40%. Against this pitch-type the Yankees have a WHIFF of 19.9% recently
But wait, it gets even better...
He loves using his Slider (SL) and Cutter (CU) as his "putaway" pitch against LHH.
How do the Yankees perform against these type of pitches?
SL = 30.8% WHIFF
CU = 36.2% WHIFF
Bonus: The LHH of the teams that face Hunter have a WHIFF of 62.5% when he uses his CU
I think that he should be able to go over his 3.5 Ks line today
Data is here:
https://t.co/OFJe0LslaY
Best of Luck everyone!
We did it again ✅
6 Ks for Bieber
Let's find something for today!
Today we start with this trend:
Previous start ≤ 2 IP and ≥ 3 runs: 215 subsequent starts, averaging approximately 4.07 Ks
Shane Bieber is probably one of my least favorite SP for the @BlueJays, but today he has a numerical advantage against the #ChaseTheFight
Let's take a look at the numbers:
Shane Bieber's K line today is at 3.5 Ks
His average Ks L10 is 3.4, mostly driven by his last game, where he only pitched for .2 Innings and allowed 4 runs and had 0 Ks, supporting the trend spot above.
Today he is facing a team with a batting average of .256 in their L30 and a K rate of 21.3% in their L30. Not too elite by any means.
In terms of the lineup, we have something very interesting. He will be facing 7 RHH and 2 LHH, however, the 2 players with the highest K rate are both of the LHH in today's lineup.
Against LHH, we have the following numbers as per the most used pitches in the L30:
FF: 29% usage and a Lineup WHIFF of 41.5%
CH: 32.8% usage and a Lineup WHIFF of 51.7%
KC: 22.4% usage and Lineup WHIFF of 100%
With these numbers, he could easily cover his 3.5 Ks line by only facing the LHH 2 or 3 times each
But he also has an advantage against RHH, the majority of the lineup:
CH: 6.9% usage only but a Pitcher WHIFF of 50%
SL: 12.2% usage and a Pitcher WHIFF of 44.4%
We expect Shane Bieber to show up today and deliver a decent performance to get over his K Line and help the #BlueJays50 secure a victory
The numbers are here:
https://t.co/1rkrKRdzpN
Best of Luck everyone!
Today we start with this trend:
Previous start ≤ 2 IP and ≥ 3 runs: 215 subsequent starts, averaging approximately 4.07 Ks
Shane Bieber is probably one of my least favorite SP for the @BlueJays, but today he has a numerical advantage against the #ChaseTheFight
Let's take a look at the numbers:
Shane Bieber's K line today is at 3.5 Ks
His average Ks L10 is 3.4, mostly driven by his last game, where he only pitched for .2 Innings and allowed 4 runs and had 0 Ks, supporting the trend spot above.
Today he is facing a team with a batting average of .256 in their L30 and a K rate of 21.3% in their L30. Not too elite by any means.
In terms of the lineup, we have something very interesting. He will be facing 7 RHH and 2 LHH, however, the 2 players with the highest K rate are both of the LHH in today's lineup.
Against LHH, we have the following numbers as per the most used pitches in the L30:
FF: 29% usage and a Lineup WHIFF of 41.5%
CH: 32.8% usage and a Lineup WHIFF of 51.7%
KC: 22.4% usage and Lineup WHIFF of 100%
With these numbers, he could easily cover his 3.5 Ks line by only facing the LHH 2 or 3 times each
But he also has an advantage against RHH, the majority of the lineup:
CH: 6.9% usage only but a Pitcher WHIFF of 50%
SL: 12.2% usage and a Pitcher WHIFF of 44.4%
We expect Shane Bieber to show up today and deliver a decent performance to get over his K Line and help the #BlueJays50 secure a victory
The numbers are here:
https://t.co/1rkrKRdzpN
Best of Luck everyone!
We did it again! ✅
8 Ks for David Peterson last night
The analysis was done with information from the matchup lab.
All publicly available here:
https://t.co/wQY7x1vHq2
Back in the Lab today!
David Peterson vs #RepBX
L10 Ks average = 3.88 Ks
Today's K Line = 4.5 Ks
Under?
Not too fast
The Yankees, as per their L30, are both:
-The team that strikeouts the most
-The team with the worst batting average
End of the analysis.
Just kidding!
David will be facing, not only a demoralized team, but also 5 LHH. The 2 hitters that strikeout the most (double-digits) are both LHH: Ryan McMahon (10.5% K rate) and Spencer Jones (11.9% K rate)
He has faced Ryan in the past, striking him out in 1/3 PA appearances on a game last season. The first 3 pitches in the sequence where he got a K out of him, were actually his most used sequence against LHH:
SI > SL > SI > SI > FF = K
His favorite sequence against LHH, as we just denoted is:
SI (38%) > 0-1 SL (47%) > 0-2 SI (38%) - For a sequence where he throws 2 consecutive strikes
How elite are these pitches against the Yankees?
As far as his Slider goes, he has been using it 31% of the time against LHH in his L30, and the Yankees have a WHIFF of 36% against this pitch in the L30...
We might not see an amazing performance today, but hopefully just enough to get that 5+ Ks
All the data is here, available for you:
https://t.co/9onl4mI8KR
Best of Luck everyone!
Back in the Lab today!
David Peterson vs #RepBX
L10 Ks average = 3.88 Ks
Today's K Line = 4.5 Ks
Under?
Not too fast
The Yankees, as per their L30, are both:
-The team that strikeouts the most
-The team with the worst batting average
End of the analysis.
Just kidding!
David will be facing, not only a demoralized team, but also 5 LHH. The 2 hitters that strikeout the most (double-digits) are both LHH: Ryan McMahon (10.5% K rate) and Spencer Jones (11.9% K rate)
He has faced Ryan in the past, striking him out in 1/3 PA appearances on a game last season. The first 3 pitches in the sequence where he got a K out of him, were actually his most used sequence against LHH:
SI > SL > SI > SI > FF = K
His favorite sequence against LHH, as we just denoted is:
SI (38%) > 0-1 SL (47%) > 0-2 SI (38%) - For a sequence where he throws 2 consecutive strikes
How elite are these pitches against the Yankees?
As far as his Slider goes, he has been using it 31% of the time against LHH in his L30, and the Yankees have a WHIFF of 36% against this pitch in the L30...
We might not see an amazing performance today, but hopefully just enough to get that 5+ Ks
All the data is here, available for you:
https://t.co/9onl4mI8KR
Best of Luck everyone!
5 Ks for Eovaldi
We will try again!
Last Matchup Lab analysis of the month
Nathan Eovaldi vs #ChaseTheFight
K Line today = 5.5 Ks
How does he perform against this K Line?
70% over in his L30 (going back to last season)
Today he is facing a team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in the H/K rate, which gives him a K advantage.
Additionally, the Astros will have 6 RHH, and for his pitch arsenal, this means a lot!
Against RHH, Eovaldi has been using the following pitches the most (L30):
Splitter (FS) = 37.9 %
Curve (CU) = 28.2%
4-Seamer (FF) = 19.4%
Teams facing Eovaldi have shown a WHIFF of 43.3% against the Splitter, mainly because of his elite location and smart sequencing
Our Expected WHIFF Path is of 35% with the following sequence against RHH:
FS > CU > FS
Our simulator median is 6 Ks
We expect him to cover that over without any issues today.
The data is available here:
https://t.co/dVMuTOViVX
Best of Luck everyone!
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
241.2M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119.1M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
112.9M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.8M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
107.1M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
98.3M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.3M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
91.5M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
89M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
82.9M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
74.4M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
71.9M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
70.5M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.8M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
64.9M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
64.6M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.4M followers
Selena Gomez
@selenagomez
62.1M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.8M followers
X
@x
60.8M followers