Modern Fitba

In-depth statistical and tactical analysis of Scottish football.

[Modern Fitba @ModernFitba]

We'll Meet Again, Don't Know Where, Don't Know When

Modern Fitba says goodbye for now.

https://t.co/IDYFprji1a

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

So I've been in the #ggplot2 lab, trying something my fellow @ModernFitba-er @fitbainscotland did for us at MF with xG graphs. Instead of the a line graph, Jamie used bar graphs. Trying it out again here.

xG bar graphs and shot maps for @CelticFC's 3-0 win at @LiviFCOfficial

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @KilmarnockFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.

On Matchday 14 (Oct 29th), Killie lost to St Johnstone 1-0 on a 4th minute own goal by Ash Taylor.

They had earned only 29% of available points. Two weeks later they were in last

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @dundeeunitedfc comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected

Each of the 3 managers tenures are marked

The model mirrored the actual results all season long - basically the team was as bad as their underlying numbers said they were

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @RossCounty comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.

Not much to say here...the model NEVER strayed more than 3 points away from Ross County's final point total of 34 points & the team's actual pace was just as consistent since January

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @StJohnstone comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.

For most of 6 months, the model had them within 3 points of its final total. A bad April dragged the projections down. Only 1 loss after the split spurred the team back to 43 pts

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @LiviFCOfficial comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.

Interestingly, despite a good start to the season...the model rarely projected beyond 3 points of their eventual point total of 46, while the actual pt rate fluctuated for months

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Season review for @MotherwellFC comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected.

Stuart Kettlewell took over following matchday 26. While the results & underlying numbers did improve, it wasn't until after the split that they actually outpaced earlier results

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Quick thread on @RangersFC season

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Presented without (much) comment...here's the season review for Celtic comparing their actual points pace with what my model projected

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Thread looking at @HibernianFC

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Thread from earlier…this one looking at @saintmirrenfc

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Updated Projected League Table

Only 3 clubs have seen a 4 point or more shift in their projected points since the World Cup break.

@JamTarts +5.19
@RangersFC +4.93
@AberdeenFC -7.72

Other notables:
Celtic +1.05
@dundeeunitedfc +3.24
@RossCounty -3.92
@KilmarnockFC +0.69 😏

[Rangers Report @TheGersReport]

Updated Projected League Table

The margins at the bottom of the table are starting to get smaller for that automatic relegation spot between @RossCounty & @dundeeunitedfc

It will also be interesting to see if the model's belief in @HibernianFC actually comes to fruition.

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

Please keep a lookout for Michael if you’re in Scotland.

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

@spfl @FotMob Previous version didn't exclude penalties, here is the shot maps with non-penalty xG (and smaller hexbins).

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

Shot locations hexbins for @SPFL Premiership Clubs five matches into the season.

The lighter the color of the hexbin, the more shots your favorite team has taken there.

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

Expected Goals for the @SPFL Premiership thus far.

[The Backpass Rule @TheBackpassRule]

Shot maps for the top 12 in expected goals in the @spfl Premiership this season so far.

[Modern Fitba @ModernFitba]

Thanks for finding our work interesting Chris. Good luck heading back to France.

[Chris Jullien.. @Chri6ViF]

@ModernFitba @fitbainscotland Interesting 😉

[KroneBall @KroneBall]

Chart mapping where each @eliteserien club has gotten open play shots this season. The lighter the fill of the hexbin, the more shots from that area for each club.

@vikingfotball lead #eliteserien in xG for and are getting plenty of opportunities in the middle of the box.