Momoracle

Modular Modelling Oracle for Election Predictions around the World

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

We predict a parliamentary majority for the Liberals in today's Canadian election
#CanadaElections2025 #Carney2025 #Poilievre

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Our prediction for #CanadaElections2025

Vote share:
LPC 43.1%, CPC 38.9%, NDP 7.9%, BQ 6%, GPC 1.9%

Seats:
LPC 187, CPC 126, BQ 22, NDP 7, GPC 1

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

More information is available here:
https://t.co/VnzSHvZga5

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Our final forecast for the Hamburg state election: SPD 32.3%, CDU 17.5%, Greens 17.2%, Left 11.4%, AfD 9.9%, BSW 2.7%, FDP 2.7%, Volt 2.7% #Buergerschaftswahl2025

Compared to last week: SPD +0.4%, CDU/CSU +0, Greens, -1.4%, Left +2.1%, AfD +0.4%, BSW -0.3%, FDP -0.3%, Volt -0.3

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

1/ Our German Election Review
The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter? #BTW2025

A deep dive into the results. 👇

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

6/ Read the full review of the Bundestagswahl here: https://t.co/JdsAHwfhNl

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

1/ Our German Election Review
The 2025 German Bundestagswahl tested pollster accuracy. YouGov led with a 0.61% error, while our Momoracle model hit 0.91%. How did pollsters fare, and why did social media matter? #BTW2025

A deep dive into the results. 👇

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

5/ Social Media Insight
Our Social Media Strength (SMS) index didn’t tweak our main model - German polls are too good. But it hinted at AfD’s stall and Left’s last-minute surge, adding depth to the data. Social media vibes mattered, even if subtle.

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Our final forecast for the German national election: CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 15.3%, Greens 13.1%, Left 7.2%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.4%, Others 5.7%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruene #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

@Wahlrecht_de https://t.co/XKFF4ac2s9

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Our final forecast for the German national election: CDU/CSU 29.9%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 15.3%, Greens 13.1%, Left 7.2%, BSW 4.5%, FDP 4.4%, Others 5.7%
#Bundestagswahl2025 #Bundestagswahl #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #AfD #SPD #Gruene #Linke #BSW #FDP #Merz #Weidel #Scholz #Habeck

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

2. The correlation between online strength and polling is weak at best for the parties – with the exception of the Linke:

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

In the last Romanian election, our Social Media Strength (SMS) index improved traditional polls. How does it look like in Germany now?

SMS, 21-23 February 2025:
AfD 36.9%, Left 16.3%, CDU/CSU 15.8%, SPD 10.0%, Greens 7.7%, FDP 6.9%, BSW 6.4%

2 things stand out:
#BTW2025

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

1. The AfD is in a strong first place, but it strength has declined substantially since the Musk-Weidel talk.

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Will the CDU/CDU win the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.79%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #CDUCSU #Merz #CDU #CSU

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Will the AfD win the 2nd most seats in the German election?

Predicted Probability: 99.08%

#Bundestagswahl2025 #BTW2025 #AfD #Weidel

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion (pass 5% threshold or win at least 3 districts) // Kommt die Linke in Fraktionsstärke in den Bundestag (5% Hürde oder mind. 3 Direktmandate)?

Predicted Probability: 98.84%

#DieLinke #Linke #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025

[Momoracle @Momoraclecom]

Will the Left win 3 or more districts / Gewinnt Die Linke 3 oder mehr Wahlkreise?

Predicted probability: 90.28%

#DieLinke #Linke #Gysi #Ramelow #Bartsch #Reichinnek #BTW2025 #Bundestagswahl2025