Monaco Macro @MonacoMacro - Twitter Profile

MONACO MACRO PRE-MARKET READ Today is not a clean risk-on tape. It is a rebound attempt after a real tech liquidation. Semis are the center of the board. The main event is MU earnings after the close, but that also makes MU the biggest premium trap of the day. Options are expensive. Chasing calls blindly is how you get the direction right and still lose. Names to watch: MU Bullish above $1,105 Bearish below $1,079 Earnings tonight. Huge implied move. Huge IV-crush risk. QQQ Rebound scalp above $719 Stronger above $724 to $727 Short below $712 Tech tape is still damaged. NVDA Cleanest semi scalp on the board. Bullish above $202.50 Bearish below $200 Options are less stretched than MU or AMD. AMD Bullish above $530 Bearish below $519.85 High-beta rebound name, but premium is rich. TSLA Needs $385 to prove itself. Bearish below $379. No trade unless it clears direction. SPCX Range only. Watch $147 to $166. Long only above $160, stronger above $166. Market read: Futures are slightly green. VIX is lower. Semis are trying to stabilize. But this is still a fragile tape. MU earnings tonight. New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET. PCE and bigger macro data tomorrow. Geopolitical headline risk still live. Bottom line: Trade levels, not opinions. Best focus: MU, QQQ, NVDA, AMD. Avoid chasing inflated premium. Smaller size until the first 30-minute range forms. Decision support only. You make the calls.

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Monaco Macro

@MonacoMacro

6 days ago

@NousResearch @grok what are the best reusable skills to feed it?

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Monaco Macro

@MonacoMacro

6 days ago

https://t.co/pLsHYDrwFD

Monaco Macro

@MonacoMacro

6 days ago

AI is no longer just an AI trade. It is now a rates trade. That is the market shift today. The setup: DXY is breaking out. The dollar is near a 1-year high. 2Y yields are back around 4.20%. The front end is tightening again. VIX is near 20. Risk managers are paying attention. Crypto is selling off. Speculative liquidity is being pulled. AI stocks are cracking. Not because the AI story is dead. Because funding costs are rising. This is the key point: The market is starting to separate real AI cash-flow winners from AI names that need cheap capital, endless capex, and constant multiple expansion. That matters. Because the next few days are loaded: Micron earnings: June 24 This tells us whether the AI memory shortage trade is still real. PCE inflation: June 25 This tells us whether the Fed hike repricing gets validated. If PCE comes in hot, the trade gets ugly: Higher dollar. Higher front-end yields. Lower QQQ. Lower semis. Lower crypto. More pressure on speculative AI. If PCE cools, AI gets a relief rally. But do not confuse a bounce with a clean all-clear. The real trade now is not “buy AI.” The real trade is: Which AI assets survive a stronger dollar, higher rates, and weaker speculative liquidity? My focus today: Short front-end duration / higher 2Y yields if the 2Y holds above 4.20%. QQQ/XLC downside if tech leadership keeps failing. Micron earnings volatility, not blindly chasing the stock. Fade crude rallies unless Iran talks break down. Watch HYG/credit spreads. If credit cracks, this turns from a tech reset into something bigger. Bottom line: AI capex just met the Warsh Fed. The easy “buy every AI dip” phase is over. Now the alpha is in knowing which AI names are real businesses, and which ones were just cheap-money momentum trades. Not financial advice. Save this before PCE.

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Monaco Macro

@MonacoMacro

6 days ago

AI is no longer just an AI trade. It is now a rates trade. That is the market shift today. The setup: DXY is breaking out. The dollar is near a 1-year high. 2Y yields are back around 4.20%. The front end is tightening again. VIX is near 20. Risk managers are paying attention. Crypto is selling off. Speculative liquidity is being pulled. AI stocks are cracking. Not because the AI story is dead. Because funding costs are rising. This is the key point: The market is starting to separate real AI cash-flow winners from AI names that need cheap capital, endless capex, and constant multiple expansion. That matters. Because the next few days are loaded: Micron earnings: June 24 This tells us whether the AI memory shortage trade is still real. PCE inflation: June 25 This tells us whether the Fed hike repricing gets validated. If PCE comes in hot, the trade gets ugly: Higher dollar. Higher front-end yields. Lower QQQ. Lower semis. Lower crypto. More pressure on speculative AI. If PCE cools, AI gets a relief rally. But do not confuse a bounce with a clean all-clear. The real trade now is not “buy AI.” The real trade is: Which AI assets survive a stronger dollar, higher rates, and weaker speculative liquidity? My focus today: Short front-end duration / higher 2Y yields if the 2Y holds above 4.20%. QQQ/XLC downside if tech leadership keeps failing. Micron earnings volatility, not blindly chasing the stock. Fade crude rallies unless Iran talks break down. Watch HYG/credit spreads. If credit cracks, this turns from a tech reset into something bigger. Bottom line: AI capex just met the Warsh Fed. The easy “buy every AI dip” phase is over. Now the alpha is in knowing which AI names are real businesses, and which ones were just cheap-money momentum trades. Not financial advice. Save this before PCE.

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