Millionaire Got Talent

Bitcoin market analysis. Price levels and ETF flows posted before the move. Public track record in the pinned post.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

Signal 5 closed.

Entry $59,200 on Jun 29. Bias: BEARISH.

BTC reclaimed $60K - the level I flagged as invalidation.

Bearish call didn't play out. Closing it clean.

Track record: 4 signals called before the move. 1 miss.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@traderhc Exactly. RRP at $4.5B means the shock absorber is empty, so the next leg of runoff hits reserves head on. That repo stress is what forces the Fed to stop QT and then cut. For BTC the pivot is the fuel, and it shows up in funding markets before the headlines do.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@virtualbacon Leverage is the only real overhang left, agreed. But look under it: $216M of Saylor selling barely moved price. Spot keeps eating every seller. It takes a margin-call cascade to crack this now, and nothing on the tape says that is close.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@BitcoinMagazine Most of that 1.26M sits on a few balance sheets, Strategy alone close to half. "Public companies" makes it sound broad. It's a handful of leveraged treasuries, and one forced seller moves price harder than all that buying moved it up.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@AshCrypto That flat line is the signal. Every catalyst fired and BTC didn't budge. When good news stops moving price, the marginal buyer is gone. $63k isn't stability, it's exhaustion. Watch ETF flows, not headlines.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@Web3BPP Safe harbor barely touches BTC. It de-risks tokens stuck in securities gray zones, an alt and DeFi story. Bitcoin cleared that fight years ago as a commodity. That's why it sits at 62k even with a friendly SEC. Its catalyst is rate cuts and ETF flows, not the rulebook.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF bled $59 million on July 8. Yet BTC is up 1.88% today.

When price climbs against ETF outflows, the bid is coming from somewhere the fund flows don't capture. Watch spot demand, not just the funds.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@pete_rizzo_ Bitwise runs a BTC ETF, so "close to the bottom" is talking their book. The leverage point is real though. Forced selling clearing out is what bottoms are made of. $100K by year end needs ETF flows to flip green first, and BlackRock just bled $59M.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@TedPillows BTC at $62,500 with green futures, but jobless claims came in at 215K vs 218K expected. That is a hawkish print, not a rate cut setup. The real tell: BTC held while BlackRock ETF bled $59M yesterday. Quiet bid, but a bid.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@virtualbacon Right, the 0.4% coupon is noise. The risk is timing, not size. Forced selling clusters when price drops and margin calls stack. A trickle in calm tape becomes a cascade on the way down. Leverage never unwinds evenly, it unwinds all at once.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@traderhc RRP at $4.5B means the shock absorber is gone, agreed. But QT doesn't end when RRP hits zero, it ends when reserves get scarce and SOFR pops. Reserves are still ample and funding is calm. Right direction, early on timing. The squeeze isn't printing yet.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@BitcoinMagazine Seller exhaustion is not a bottom, it is a pause. Price bottoms need a bid, not just an absence of sellers. Every real BTC low came with capitulation volume and a buyer stepping in. Low sell pressure on thin volume is how you get a lower low, not a reversal.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@benjamincowen The cycle called direction, not mechanism. Halved supply is a rounding error next to ETF flows and Fed positioning now. BTC didn't fall on a four year clock, it fell tracking equities and rates. Right chart, wrong engine. The pattern rhymes but the driver changed.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@Cointelegraph $250M over two days is a rounding error against two weeks of daily outflows. Gross buying isn't the signal, net flow is, and one repositioning day doesn't reverse a trend. A full week of net inflows would be bullish. This is just noise.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@TedPillows $50K is another 20% down from spot, and every cycle bottom you're citing formed with no ETF bid absorbing supply daily. Realized price and CVDD lagged those turns, they didn't call them. A liquidity cluster gets defended as often as it gets filled.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

Middle East conflict is supposed to bid safe havens. Gold is down 1.86%. Bitcoin down 2.45%.

The only thing green is oil, up 4.5%.

This selloff isn't fear. It's the market repricing inflation and rates. Watch oil, not the fear gauge.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@onlyhashes Fed minutes are backward looking, they wont be the catalyst, they just restate a meeting that already happened. The real tell is over half of supply at a loss, thats where past cycle bottoms formed. But oil spiking on Hormuz is stagflation risk, and that caps the rebound.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@virtualbacon Absorbing 0.4% in a green tape is easy. The test is a red quarter when they still have to sell to make the coupon. Forced supply only looks invisible while BTC is bid. That is the whole risk.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@rektcapital The EMA cross is lagging by design. BTC already reclaimed 60K and is clearing 63K while the average still points down. By the time it flips green the first leg is gone. Price broke the bearish structure before the indicator did.

[Millionaire Got Talent @MoneyMaker_MGT]

@saylor 3.3% is the average, not the path. STRC coupons are due on a fixed cash schedule while BTC gains are lumpy. A 2-year drawdown forces BTC sales into weakness to cover them. Sequence of returns is what breaks "indefinitely," not the long-run CAGR.