Moneyball Locks

Profitable, analytical MLB capper with over 7 years experience | 2026 MLB 12-7-0 | 63% hit rate

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Since the start of the MLB 2025 season. I’ve been profitable EVERY SINGLE WEEK. With only $50 units, collecting a total of +$2,290 for +45.8 Units. MLB statistics/analytics has always been a passion of mine. In the last month I’ve gone way harder and started this x journey.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

HR lays have been dialed last 2 days

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

2-2 day. Missed Skubal by 1 out. Sandy was a bad read. Shouldn’t have faded Brewers with how their offense has looked this year.

Freddie O1.5 bases hit easy

Nats TT over hit in 2 innings

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Hits in 2 innings. Beautiful read. Wood went hard 1st AB just as the data pointed to📈

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Let’s stay HOT today!⚾️🏟️

Nationals O4.5 total runs (-110, Hard Rock)💥💣

Nats are over is FIFTEEN/20. Most common team total of 5 runs actually occurring 5/15 times this season.

Houser struggles vs LHB. Nats have two of the best left handed bats in the MLB right now in James Wood & CJ Abram’s batting 1 and 2. Houser throws a pitch mix of sinker, slider, change up, 4 seam, cutter & curve. But he throws the sinker 44% of the time which also happens to be James Wood & CJ Abram’s best pitch to hit. Wood .330 BA, 58.6% hard hit rate. CJ .320 BA. Both with a .500+ SLG vs sinker.

Houser is over the 2.5 ER line in 2/3 this year. Giving up 4 runs to Baltimore & 4 to Philly most recently. I like the full game over though in case Houser gets pulled early or doesn’t give up 3 ER’s somehow. I don’t think the Giants bullpen is all that great either ranking 13th OVR, 3.92 ERA.

Weather conditions are conducive for hitting today in this home game for the Nats. Low 80’s, 10-12 mph wind blowing out to left field.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Sandy Alcantara O18.5 PO’s (+120, Hard Rock)

In the last game he started vs the tigers Sandy gave up 7 ER, 10 hits, 2 walks, 3 HR’s AND STILL went 6 innings pitched on 100 total pitches.

In a bounce back outing where he’s over this 18.5 PO’s line in 3/4 this season going 7, 9, 8.1, & 6 I think he smashes this line and gets at least 7 IP (21 PO’s).

I’m simply not scared of this brewers offense & im not afraid to bet on Sandy to get 1 out in the 7th inning.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Skubal O18.5 PO’s (+100, Hard Rock)

Skubal is over this line in 2/3 this season with the exception being his rough start against the red hot twins.

We just need 6.1 IP to hit this and Skubal is a role model of pitching efficiency. Placing #2 OVR in K’s last year at 241 just behind Crochet. 4.4% walk rate, loves to get hitters to roll over and ground out on the changeup which can lead to double plays. 2025 average innings per start of 6.1 IP actually.

The only time skubal doesn’t hit 6.1 IP is when he gets banged up & I don’t think the Red Sox are that team. They managed only 3 hits & no ER against Casey Mize and the tigers last night. Red Sox also rank 17th/30th in hits per game at 7.79 which is due for regression honestly.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Freddie Freeman O1.5 total bases (-155, Hard Rock)

#dodgers @ #rockies
8:10pm EST

Freeman is 4/12 with a double in his career vs feltner. He’s over this in 3/L5.

Freddie has TWO HITS in 3/L4

Freddie is a doubles machine sitting at 7 total on the season tied for 6th overall in the MLB in the doubles category.

Freddie is also the type of guy who can hit a single early then come back up to the plate and hit another one like he did last night.

I just this there’s a lot of ways we can hit this prop based on the player Freddie is.

Feltner relies on the fastball 34% of the time to lefties and yes that’s Freddie Freeman’s best pitch to hit historical. This one looks solid all around

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Bang bang

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

L but I also took total fame walks at O6.5 & also hit in another lay

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Rays O3.5 Batter Walks⚾️

Bubba Chandler walks allowed L3:
• 2, 4, 6

Pirates bullpen:
• 5.75 BB/9
• 0.64 BB per inning
• 4.43 ERA (near bottom of NL)
• 5th most walks allowed

Rays don’t chase + Pirates don’t locate

Free passes should stack up.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Hit

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Dodgers -1.5⚾️

The combo of glass being elite tonight. Ohtani being 2/2 with 2 HR’s vs Sugano.

Pages on fire, Tucker heating up, Freddie & Smith consistently decent & dodgers the away team (9 innings to bat guarenteed) should give them a win by 2.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Hit

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Yordan Alvarez O2.5 HRRBI⚾️

Yordan Alvarez is 2/2 with a HR against Kyle Leahy who allows a season avg of .394 to lefty’s.

Yordan Alvarez ranking 2nd in the MLB in XBH at 13 total through 20 games.

Over this line in L3/5

[That Guy Rocked MLB @MLBGuyRocked]

Evan Longoria

That guy rocked.

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

@ANick44_

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

Tyler Glasnow O6.5 K’s⚾️

Rockies through 19 games:
• 194 strikeouts (MLB worst)
• 10.21 Ks per game

Glasnow vs current COL hitters:
• 1/27 (.037 BAA)
• 12 strikeouts

That’s complete domination of this lineup.

2026 starts so far:
• 7 Ks
• 9 Ks
• 6 Ks

Even in his last outing vs TEX:
• 4 ER allowed
• Still 7 Ks

Strikeouts travel regardless of results.

Rockies profile + Glasnow swing/miss stuff = perfect storm

K floor is legit.
Ceiling is 10+.

Playable up to O7.5 for juice

[Moneyball Locks @Moneyball_Locks]

I’m aware but that doesn’t necessarily mean less K’s. Could also mean:

Cold hands = slower bat speed

Batter timing off

Downsides are pitcher grip issues, flatter breaking pitches, pitch control off.

BUT, all in all I’m playing the angle of:

✅ Boost to Strikeout Upside
•Hitters uncomfortable + slower reactions
•Less damage on mistakes → pitchers attack zone more
•Cold = hitters less aggressive