Mr. Swolis

Tweets are opinions only. Markets enthusiast. Armchair aristocrat

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

THE TEXAS STOCK EXCHANGE IS HERE

The Texas Stock Exchange officially began operating today with some test trades

Live stock trading is expected to begin Friday with a small group of securities

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Fed to inject $10 billion in US economy

[Mr. Swolis @MoneymanSwolis]

@Covfefe_Latte @rawsalerts Iran is the new Afghanistan. Resources grow and anonymity is a scare tactic for more control in a structured environment. We need to prioritize our digital information in the long run of all social media applications

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US M2 money supply surged +$247.8 billion in May, to a record $23.1 trillion.

This marks the largest monthly increase since May 2021.

Year-to-date, M2 has soared +$698.6 billion, the largest January to May increase in 5 years.

Money supply now stands $1.3 trillion above the March 2022 peak.

Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average annual rate of +6.3%.

US money creation is accelerating.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump: "The Reflecting Pool looks fantastic. I just got pictures of it, it's beautiful -but somebody went in with a knife and cut [the sealant]... I understand 5 or 6 people are arrested... and I hear they have 6 people under investigation."

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

THE FED IS ABOUT TO CUT WHILE THE ECONOMY BOOMS.

🇺🇸 New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: AI is "structurally disinflationary." Per his WSJ op-ed.

Same pattern. Different decade.

1995: Greenspan saw the productivity boom. Let the economy run hot. Cut rates anyway.
Result: 7 years of risk-on. Nasdaq up 1,132%.

Musk, Altman, Bezos, Druckenmiller all agree: AI is deflationary.

Warsh just took the chair. June 16: his first FOMC.

The next few years are going to be insane.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price increases since start of the Iran war
Sulfur: +97%
WTI Crude Oil: +60%
Jet Fuel: +58%
Heating Oil: +55%
European Natural Gas: +54%
Gasoline: +52%
Diesel: +52%
Brent Crude Oil: +50%
Cotton: +28%
Urea: +24%
Rice: +23%
Fertilizer: +20%
Palm Oil: +12%
Iron Ore: +12%
Coal: +11%

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: The White House is reviewing whether to amend and potentially scrap a decades-old rule governing stock trading that’s meant to make sure investors get better prices for their transactions, per Bloomberg.

[Eric Pachman @EricPachman]

The US labor force is a living, breathing map. 🇺🇸

Watch the number of counties with labor forces in structural decline spread like a virus across America between 2010 and 2025.

Shout out to @JMBDaecius for the idea to do this.
#Economics #LaborForce #Trends

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: UAE says it quits OPEC and OPEC+

[barney @barneyxbt]

let me make sure i’m understanding this correctly

the supreme court is refunding all tariff money back to corporations.

the same corporations that didn’t pay a single cent of those tariffs to begin with.

they passed every dollar directly to you through higher prices on everything you buy

you went to the store and paid more for groceries. you paid more for clothes. for car parts. for literally everything.

that money came out of YOUR pocket not theirs

and now the refund goes to THEM?

the corporations who used the tariffs as an excuse to raise prices even higher than the tariff itself and pocket the difference

the american people funded the tariffs.

the corporations profited off the tariffs.

and now the corporations get a refund on money they never spent in the first place
and nobody in washington thinks the people who actually paid should get the money back.

not a single person has even suggested it

guess we are never getting our DOGE checks either

this country does not work for you.

it works for them. it’s a joke

and they’re not even pretending anymore

[Mr. Swolis @MoneymanSwolis]

@PolymarketMoney Bear signal? 😬

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

JUST IN: After 14 years in charge, Tim Cook will step down as Apple CEO this September.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and officially posts its fastest recovery since 1982.

The S&P 500 has now added +$7.3 TRILLION since its low on March 30th.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes +1.2% higher, now up +10.2% from its March 30th low.

The S&P 500 has now added +$5.8 TRILLION over the last 11 trading days.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: The SEC has reportedly eliminated the Pattern Day Trader rule, replacing it with a new intraday margin system.

The requirement to maintain a $25,000 balance to engage in day trading is being scrapped.

[Exec Sum @exec_sum]

brace yourselves for impact

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Call your blockade.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Wow.

Hundreds of supertankers are headed toward the U.S. Gulf Coast from every direction.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

No Margot Robbie in a bathtub today. Just a hedgehog who's been watching private credit for months and needs you to read this carefully.

🦔The biggest banks on Wall Street are launching a new tool next week to bet against private credit funds, the same $3 trillion corner of finance that quietly holds money from pension funds and retirement accounts. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs are working with S&P Global to launch a credit default swap index called CDX Financials, allowing investors to profit if private credit fund managers including Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone run into trouble.

Credit default swaps are insurance contracts that pay out when borrowers default. Banks want protection against their own exposure. Hedge funds want to profit from a downturn. This comes as Blue Owl reported 41% redemption requests last quarter and Carlyle's fund was hit with a 15.7% redemption request this week, more than three times its normal limit.

My Take
I want to explain why this matters for regular people because the language around it is designed to be confusing.

Private credit is a market where investment firms lend directly to companies outside the traditional banking system. Millions of Americans have indirect exposure through pension funds and 401k plans without knowing it. When those loans go bad and investors try to get their money out simultaneously, funds gate withdrawals, meaning you simply cannot access your money when you need it.

What the banks are doing now is building the infrastructure to profit when that happens. Credit default swap indexes were central to the 2008 financial crisis, and that doesn't mean we're heading there again. But when the largest banks on Wall Street simultaneously decide they need protection against private credit losses, and hedge funds are lining up to bet on a collapse, people with retirement savings in these funds deserve to understand what the people on the other side of that trade are seeing.

Hedgie🤗