The Real Mongoose

Macro • Equities • Crypto | Multi-Asset Research | MC Suite | Market Regime • Rotation • Trade Structure | Husband • Father • Faith • Fine Food • Wine

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Welcome to The Real Mongoose.

Macro • Equities • Crypto • Cross-Asset Research

I build the MC Suite for regime, flow, compression, execution & analog analysis.

Trade ideas. Market structure. Evidence over predictions.

By MC Capital

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

@Sofia50020Sofia 70-75

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

┌──────────────────────────────────────┐
│ MC GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE // 09.09.26 │
│ MONGOOSE CAPITAL • GLOBAL TERMINAL │
└──────────────────────────────────────┘

GLOBAL REGIME
🔴 INFLATIONARY GEOPOLITICAL SHOCK
Bias: RISK-OFF / HIGHER-FOR-LONGER
24H Δ: DETERIORATING

RISK MATRIX
Geopolitics 🔴 CRITICAL ↑↑
War / Conflict 🔴 CRITICAL ↑
Energy 🔴 CRITICAL ↑↑
Sovereign Debt 🔴 HIGH ↑
Trade 🟠 ELEVATED →
Global Growth 🟠 ELEVATED ↓
Legal / Reg. 🔴 HIGH ↑

────────────────────────────────────

01 // IRAN • GULF • HORMUZ
🔴 PRIMARY TAIL RISK

• U.S.–Iran maritime conflict escalating
• Iran reports attacks on 10 ships near Hormuz
• Maritime exclusion/restricted zones expanding
• War-risk insurance + freight costs surging
• Brent breaks $100

TRANSMISSION:
Hormuz ↓ → Oil/Diesel ↑ → Inflation ↑
→ Yields ↑ → Central-bank tightening ↑
→ Duration/Liquidity ↓

────────────────────────────────────

02 // RUSSIA • UKRAINE
🟠 ELEVATED

• Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian logistics
• Ukraine–Moldova border infrastructure hit
• U.S.-mediated diplomatic channel remains open
• No durable battlefield de-escalation

READ:
Defense bid remains structurally supported.
European geopolitical premium stays intact.

────────────────────────────────────

03 // CHINA
🟠 EXTERNALLY STRONG / INTERNALLY SOFT

CPI: +0.8% YoY
PPI: +3.8% YoY

• Energy/metals driving inflation higher
• Core inflation remains subdued
• Domestic demand still soft
• Oil demand structurally weakening
• No major new Taiwan escalation

READ:
Imported inflation + weak domestic demand
limits Beijing's policy flexibility.

────────────────────────────────────

04 // CENTRAL BANKS

ECB 🟠 TIGHTENING BIAS
BOJ 🔴 HAWKISH REPRICING
PBOC 🟡 POLICY SUPPORT
FED 🟠 INFLATION CONSTRAINED

JPY ↑↑
Carry-trade unwind risk ↑

KEY RISK:
BOJ normalization + energy inflation could
tighten global financial conditions together.

────────────────────────────────────

05 // CROSS-ASSET TERMINAL

OIL ↑↑ BULLISH / SUPPLY SHOCK
GOLD ↑ SAFE-HAVEN BID
JPY ↑↑ BOJ + CARRY UNWIND
US10Y/30Y ↑ INFLATION / TERM PREMIUM
TLT ↓ DURATION PRESSURE
USD ↔/↑ YIELD SUPPORT
BTC ↔/↓ LIQUIDITY SENSITIVE
SPX ↓ TACTICAL PRESSURE
NASDAQ ↓↓ DURATION SENSITIVE
ENERGY ↑↑ FAVORED
DEFENSE ↑ FAVORED
SEMIS ↔ STRUCTURAL ↑ / MACRO ↓

────────────────────────────────────

⚖ LEGAL / REGULATORY

IRAN SANCTIONS
🔴 HIGH — Western restrictions expanding

IAEA / NUCLEAR
🔴 HIGH — renewed UNSC escalation risk

GLOBAL TRADE / TECH
🟠 ELEVATED — fragmentation continues

────────────────────────────────────

MC TRANSMISSION CHAIN

HORMUZ
↓
ENERGY SUPPLY
↓
OIL + REFINED PRODUCTS ↑
↓
GLOBAL INFLATION ↑
↓
SOVEREIGN YIELDS ↑
↓
CENTRAL BANK FLEXIBILITY ↓
↓
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY ↓
↓
DURATION / RISK ASSETS ↓

────────────────────────────────────

⚠ MC WATCHLIST

1. Brent holds > $100?
2. Further Hormuz shipping attacks?
3. ECB guidance
4. U.S. inflation
5. BOJ / JPY carry unwind

────────────────────────────────────

MONGOOSE BOTTOM LINE

The regime has changed.

The market is no longer pricing only the
possibility of an energy shock.

Physical supply disruption + $100 oil are
now feeding directly into the global
inflation and rates complex.

PRIMARY RISK:
ENERGY SHOCK → INFLATION → YIELDS →
LIQUIDITY TIGHTENING

MC REGIME:
🔴 GEOPOLITICAL / INFLATIONARY RISK-OFF

By MongooseCapital
#Macro #Markets #Oil #Bonds #Geopolitics

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

So we're seeing an unusual divergence:
Front-end Treasury yields ↓
Curve steepening ↑
Credit still relatively healthy
Fed-funds futures → ~60% hike

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

We see the RR and compression at these levels , we see the potential Alpha, we're scaled in, squeeze it. Give me a weekly close above $85-86 TLT we add, below $81 we re- assess strategies.
@SecScottBessent

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

TLT volatility expansion looks increasingly close. Direction is not confirmed.
Price is compressing near the lows while momentum and bullish divergence improve, but the higher-level regime remains bearish.
83.60 is the line in the sand.

Above it: countertrend duration squeeze becomes actionable → 85, then potentially 86+.
Below ~81.8: bullish divergence fails and the dominant Treasury bear trend likely resumes.

The interesting part is that the engines disagree — bearish regime, improving momentum, volatility contraction.
That disagreement usually doesn’t last forever.
Don’t predict the expansion. Trade the confirmation.
#TLT #Treasuries #Bonds #Rates #Macro

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

@SamanthaLaDuc https://t.co/XHogtwE0jb

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Rates are sending a warning. Credit hasn’t confirmed it — yet.

• US10Y pushing sharply higher
• US30Y holding above 5%
• TLT remains under pressure
• MOVE elevated → rate volatility isn’t going away
• HYG/IEF still firm → credit is refusing to break What I’m watching: whether higher long-end yields finally transmit into credit.If HYG/IEF rolls over + MOVE expands + TLT breaks lower, the rates shock is migrating into broader risk → bearish equities / long-duration assets.If credit holds while yields stabilize and MOVE fades, the market may continue absorbing the rates pressure → much more constructive for risk.For now: rates stress, credit resilience. The confirmation signal is still missing.
— Mongoose Capital
#Macro #Bonds #Treasuries #Credit #SPX #Markets

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Rates are sending a warning. Credit hasn’t confirmed it — yet.

• US10Y pushing sharply higher
• US30Y holding above 5%
• TLT remains under pressure
• MOVE elevated → rate volatility isn’t going away
• HYG/IEF still firm → credit is refusing to break What I’m watching: whether higher long-end yields finally transmit into credit.If HYG/IEF rolls over + MOVE expands + TLT breaks lower, the rates shock is migrating into broader risk → bearish equities / long-duration assets.If credit holds while yields stabilize and MOVE fades, the market may continue absorbing the rates pressure → much more constructive for risk.For now: rates stress, credit resilience. The confirmation signal is still missing.
— Mongoose Capital
#Macro #Bonds #Treasuries #Credit #SPX #Markets

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

@mindoverweaknes So dumb, getting lines from X, just be yourself, reminds me of the GQ, stuff, taking young men what to wear, how to act, be yourself, and if you're a dousche then own it

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Copper is setting up cleanly.
$MHG showing full multi-timeframe alignment:
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
Trigger: Bullish
Quality: 100/100
MC Trading Engine now has the setup CONFIRMED / EXECUTE READY with a pullback trigger near 6.6805.
Risk map:
Initial SL: 6.6355
Hold SL: 6.5855
Thesis SL: 6.5465
T1: 6.7480
T2: 6.7935
The key here is not just direction — it’s structure. Higher-timeframe trend remains intact while execution risk is clearly separated from thesis risk.
Bias: bullish trend hold unless structure breaks.
#Copper #Commodities #Futures #Macro #TradingView #MongooseCapital

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

all positions closed waiting on Gold next

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Watching waiting MGC1

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Enabling add on contracts model mode MCL1, locked in essentially break even. no losers

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

@SJosephBurns BB

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

$MCL long thesis 🛢️

Crude is showing bullish alignment across the weekly, daily, 4H and 1H timeframes. The breakout is confirmed, momentum is expanding, and price is holding above the trend structure.

Targets: 94.13 → 96.08 → 104.15
Thesis invalidation: 88.63
The strategy: scale out into strength while keeping a runner for the larger trend.

#CrudeOil #Futures #TradingStrategy

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

@Barchart

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Nice, but stopped out for a loss on RB1,

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

Didn't get full size yet,

[The Real Mongoose @MongooseSoBay]

MC tool detected 2 actionable intra day trades, RB1, MCL1