MonteCarleaux

Plant scientist turned data-driven quantitative analyst & trader.

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass #statchat

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass #Statchat Aug23, LH said “the farmer survey carries the vast majority of the weight, with satellite data offering supporting role”

StoneX farmer survey as proxy for USDA survey suggests corn yield increase

NDVI supports yield increase

How did methods NOT change if yield down?

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass #statchat

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass In the Crop Production Briefing, there is always a slide called “Data Sources” which is missing from today’s report and replaced with a far less informative page titled “Multiple Data Inputs One Acreage & Yield Estimate”. Why? #statchat

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass #statchat

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass Your 8:50 am post says that you did include field data in your estimates despite OYS data being removed from Aug report after 2018. This is a peculiar time to announce a methodology change (after lockdown already began on the day of the Aug report release).

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@GrainStats This isn’t new. NASS has been incorporating acreage revisions in the Aug report the past couple of years.

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@JennieCamp50026 @usda_nass NASS does not say they are using OYS for corn or beans in the Aug report, which would be a change in methodology. NASS has always used OYS for wheat in the Aug report, which would not be a change in the methodology.

Let’s see what the report brings.

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

Niño 3.4 weekly #SST anomaly has now held at/above +0.5°C for 3 straight weeks (+0.5, +0.5, +0.7), pushing into #ElNino territory. Not a formal El Niño classification yet (requires 3-month avg to stay ≥ +0.5°C for 5 overlapping periods), but conditions favor development. #ENSO

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@JRichieTX @donfortexas WASHINGTON, DC, JUNE 03, 2026 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the detection of a New World screwworm (NWS) in a bovine in Zavala County, Texas.

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

WASHINGTON, DC, JUNE 03, 2026 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (#USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (#APHIS) confirmed the detection of a New World #screwworm (#NWS) in a bovine in Zavala County, Texas.

[Corey Lavinsky @biofuelslaw]

For those waiting for an updated GREET model for #45Z, guidelines for crop-based #biofuel feedstocks are likely next. The White House’s review of the guidelines appears to be wrapping up.

[MonteCarleaux @MonteCarleaux]

@usda_nass Are PP acres incorporated into this years prospective plantings, please?