David 🇺🇸 (Private)

Managing Partner, Energy Company. Engineer, MBA; USC, CSU, & Stanford

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC IS STILL IN COMPRESSION

BTC: $71.4K
30d core flows: -$160M
20d avg flow: +$96.6M/day and accelerating
Price strength: 70th percentile

If sustained absorption turns positive while price is already holding $70K+, the market moves from compression to launch.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

A major source of selling pressure has shifted toward buying.

~$4.3B of net ETF inflows since July’s trough

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: A $90K BREAKOUT PUTS $100K IN PLAY

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

The bullish $BTC signal:

10Y Treasury: 5%
Oil: $100+
Fed: likely hiking
Liquidity: tightening

And Bitcoin went from ~$60K to $70K+.

$BTC is rallying into a macro headwind.

Like a knife through hot butter

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

Current:

Price: $79.8K
Power-law trend: $139.8K
Historical P10 boundary: $66.1K

$BTC is ~43% below trend, yet only about $14K above the historical lower boundary.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: THE LOWER TAIL COMPOUNDS

Today: $79.7K

Pure-scaling P10:

2028: $120K
2031: $271K
2034: $541K
2036: $832K

10.4× | 26.4% CAGR

$832K is the 10-year P10, not the bull case.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

Bessent sees oil potentially falling to $40–50 once the Iran conflict ends and constrained supply returns.

Oil executive: hold off on all new investment.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC vs GOLD: THE REPRICING OF SCARCITY

2014: 1 oz gold = 3.05 BTC
2026: 1 oz gold = 0.056 BTC

Gold has lost roughly 98% of its value relative to Bitcoin.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

Gold was the best scarcity asset of the industrial age.

$BTC is the best scarcity asset of the digital age.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

A strong economy means adoption and capital formation continue.

Bitcoin: 21M. Fixed.

The economy can grow.
Demand can grow.
Capital can grow.

Bitcoin supply cannot.

When everything else becomes more abundant, you want to own what stays scarce.

bitcoin:native

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: $80K IS THE TRIGGER

Spot: $78,540

$80K = max gamma strike + call wall
Dealer GEX proxy: −$183M
Amplification bias: up

Break $80K and $85K–$90K can come fast.

Resistance switched to fuel.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

PBIP-01, Proposed $BTC Investor Protection Warning⚠️

Trading $BTC may be hazardous to your wealth.

10K simulation.

The biggest risk isn’t volatility.

It’s being out when Bitcoin moves.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

Enjoy the journey.

We are just getting started.

bitcoin:native

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

PBIP-0001
PROPOSED BITCOIN INVESTOR PROTECTION WARNING

⚠️ WARNING

Trading $BTC may be hazardous to your wealth.

Bitcoin trades 24/7.
Volatility is high.
Timing exits is difficult.
Timing re-entry is even harder.

HODL responsibly.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$MSTR: THE ~1.7× BITCOIN AMPLIFIER

5 years :

Log-log structural amplifier: 1.68×
Structural R²: 0.934
90-day return beta: 1.70×
Best lead/lag: 0 day

The signal is clear:

MSTR does not lead Bitcoin.
It runs with Bitcoin & amplifies the move by roughly 1.7×.

MSTR adds leverage

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$MSTR DOESN’T LEAD BITCOIN. IT AMPLIFIES IT.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

Zoom out

$BTC has already climbed from $0.001 to $100K.

$1M is simply the next 10× rung.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: $80.5K
200-week SMA: $64.3K
P10 floor: $65.5K
Power-law trend: $138.9K

BTC is now ~25% above the 200-week SMA
and ~23% above the P10 floor,
yet still ~42% below long-term trend.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: STRUCTURE RECLAIMED. 42% TO TREND.

BTC: $80.5K
P10 floor: $65.5K ✅
Structural path: $73.8K ✅
Cycle MA: $86.1K
Power-law trend: $139K

The upside mean reversion has just begun.

[David 🇺🇸 (Private) @MoritaZa]

$BTC: THE REAL BULLISH SIGNAL IS THIN LIQUIDITY, BTC moved ~23% in a week. The key question isn’t how many coins exist.

It’s how much buying is needed.

If less capital now moves BTC further, marginal liquidity is thinning.

Thin liquidity will continue to make upside moves.