$BTC The Big Report
What is next?
We perfectly predicted the huge retracement that occurred last Friday, printed big time from our #BTC and #BNB Short, and bought some alts at discount prices
So, what to expect next? I have to say it was very difficult to read the market the past couple of days and determine where it is heading. At first, we saw a strong bullish correction from #BTC breaking 114k and heading higher, but as I told you on Monday before the NY open, you can’t trust any metrics provided on Monday because of Columbus Day. Tuesday, Wednesday, and today gave us a clearer picture of the market's next direction.
The golden line at 112k was lost, a crucial level to hold, which dictates a highly bearish scenario unfolding. Despite seeing the biggest liquidation event in history (approximately 10 times bigger than the Covid crash), euphoria still exists, and the market is not yet clear from degens. All of X is still yelling for new highs, and people are still drunk with that bullish hopium.
We are seeing too many crises in the US, from the tariffs imposed on China to the formation of a private equity bubble. Around 6% of the GDP of the US is generated from private equity firms, and 50% of the private equity share is distributed among five companies:
KKR
Apollo
Blackrock
Caryle
CVC Capital Partners
The US private equity has outperformed the public markets by 4-5%. The private equity market was around 200 billion and is now above 1 trillion. Bigger move than the NASDAQ since 2008. At first, the idea was that private equity firms would manage the “riskier” loans so the banks would never intervene to keep the depositors safe from high-risk, high-reward trades, a good idea that was not implemented as presented. This was intended to reduce systemic risk by moving leveraged loans, buyout financing, and other high-risk debt off bank balance sheets. However, banks remain deeply involved in this space, often indirectly, undermining the full separation envisioned by regulators.
So, five firms carry too much weight on their shoulders, if one crushes, the impact will be huge. I hope you can all understand what 6% of the US GDP means and how a slight decrease in revenues, not to mention a company default, can affect the overall market.
I also still stand by my point of MicroStrategy, a company with an unsustainable business model that could crash the entire market. Please read the report I shared about MicroStrategy last week in VIP to understand my point.
What does all this information mean?
For the next 2-10 months I’m switching towards a bearish stance. We remained perfectly calm and held 50% of our #BTC short since 116.7k which I plan to hold for the months to come. As far as alts go, we bought in some golden buy zones, #ONDO at 0.59 and #IMX at 0.39 and we are already 10-20% up from our Entry. These prices were a huge opportunity but I can’t exclude the possibility of revisiting these levels. Still holding my alt bags until further notice. I will keep you updated on my decision regarding alts in the next couple of days.
$BTC Report
Must Read
As said in the last report, the 3rd distribution zone played out perfectly. We saw a rejection at 82k, and now we are ranging in the low 60k zone.
The next leg is down, I see no point in taking any longs or buying anything at this range.
Last week, we saw Saylor make his first BTC sale since 2022. As said in the MicroStrategy report, I don't see this business model as sustainable, so a panic sale was only a matter of time.
I expect to see some sideways movement to create liquidity at lower levels. As of now, there is not much liquidity in the 50k area, so we need to see a sideways move towards 57k to create liquidity in the lower levels. Sharp moves are coming.
The next big move is down. I expect to see 50k in the next few months of summer. Market makers want lower prices.
There is still a strong support holding at 60k, this is the most critical level for #BTC as of now. This level has been held strongly for months, and the breakdown of this level is when the real fun will begin. These moves take time to unfold, and I believe we will see the bottom for #BTC in September.
For the next months of summer, I expect rapid moves down followed by small rallies up before moving even further down. Heavy manipulation will occur on both sides.
There is a possibility of pumping in the 65-70k zone one last time before the big leg down. Drunken bulls are still buying and accumulating this zone, I still see X influencers calling for generational wealth buy zones, while their alt portfolio is generationally down in losses since they never sold. Not all Alts will recover after this crash, some people fail to realize that this isn't 2021 anymore, not every coin will pump. This narrative is now dead there is too much mainstream adoption in crypto, outperformers will be few and in some particular niches. Will talk more about Alts and this narrative when the time comes.
None of this is affecting my trading strategy, holding strong all of my short positions and not considering booking profits yet. We were very early, predicted the top since last August. Long-term trading is the most profitable strategy in these market conditions and volumes.
I waited a bit to share this report so I could see the weekly open and adjust some parts to keep it as current as possible.
$BTC Report
Must Read
As said in the last report, the 3rd distribution zone played out perfectly. We saw a rejection at 82k, and now we are ranging in the low 60k zone.
The next leg is down, I see no point in taking any longs or buying anything at this range.
Last week, we saw Saylor make his first BTC sale since 2022. As said in the MicroStrategy report, I don't see this business model as sustainable, so a panic sale was only a matter of time.
I expect to see some sideways movement to create liquidity at lower levels. As of now, there is not much liquidity in the 50k area, so we need to see a sideways move towards 57k to create liquidity in the lower levels. Sharp moves are coming.
The next big move is down. I expect to see 50k in the next few months of summer. Market makers want lower prices.
There is still a strong support holding at 60k, this is the most critical level for #BTC as of now. This level has been held strongly for months, and the breakdown of this level is when the real fun will begin. These moves take time to unfold, and I believe we will see the bottom for #BTC in September.
For the next months of summer, I expect rapid moves down followed by small rallies up before moving even further down. Heavy manipulation will occur on both sides.
There is a possibility of pumping in the 65-70k zone one last time before the big leg down. Drunken bulls are still buying and accumulating this zone, I still see X influencers calling for generational wealth buy zones, while their alt portfolio is generationally down in losses since they never sold. Not all Alts will recover after this crash, some people fail to realize that this isn't 2021 anymore, not every coin will pump. This narrative is now dead there is too much mainstream adoption in crypto, outperformers will be few and in some particular niches. Will talk more about Alts and this narrative when the time comes.
None of this is affecting my trading strategy, holding strong all of my short positions and not considering booking profits yet. We were very early, predicted the top since last August. Long-term trading is the most profitable strategy in these market conditions and volumes.
I waited a bit to share this report so I could see the weekly open and adjust some parts to keep it as current as possible.
$BTC Report
Must Read
As said in the last report, the 3rd distribution zone played out perfectly. We saw a rejection at 82k, and now we are ranging in the low 60k zone.
The next leg is down, I see no point in taking any longs or buying anything at this range.
Last week, we saw Saylor make his first BTC sale since 2022. As said in the MicroStrategy report, I don't see this business model as sustainable, so a panic sale was only a matter of time.
I expect to see some sideways movement to create liquidity at lower levels. As of now, there is not much liquidity in the 50k area, so we need to see a sideways move towards 57k to create liquidity in the lower levels. Sharp moves are coming.
The next big move is down. I expect to see 50k in the next few months of summer. Market makers want lower prices.
There is still a strong support holding at 60k, this is the most critical level for #BTC as of now. This level has been held strongly for months, and the breakdown of this level is when the real fun will begin. These moves take time to unfold, and I believe we will see the bottom for #BTC in September.
For the next months of summer, I expect rapid moves down followed by small rallies up before moving even further down. Heavy manipulation will occur on both sides.
There is a possibility of pumping in the 65-70k zone one last time before the big leg down. Drunken bulls are still buying and accumulating this zone, I still see X influencers calling for generational wealth buy zones, while their alt portfolio is generationally down in losses since they never sold. Not all Alts will recover after this crash, some people fail to realize that this isn't 2021 anymore, not every coin will pump. This narrative is now dead there is too much mainstream adoption in crypto, outperformers will be few and in some particular niches. Will talk more about Alts and this narrative when the time comes.
None of this is affecting my trading strategy, holding strong all of my short positions and not considering booking profits yet. We were very early, predicted the top since last August. Long-term trading is the most profitable strategy in these market conditions and volumes.
I waited a bit to share this report so I could see the weekly open and adjust some parts to keep it as current as possible.
$BTC Report
After some weeks of exercising soldier patience, #BTC is finally following my prediction.
#BTC is currently above 80k and moving towards the distribution area I called weeks ago
The plan is perfectly clear in my eyes, everything above 83k is a short opportunity
I have spread out orders from 83k all the way up to 92k
$BTC The Big Report
What is next?
We perfectly predicted the huge retracement that occurred last Friday, printed big time from our #BTC and #BNB Short, and bought some alts at discount prices
So, what to expect next? I have to say it was very difficult to read the market the past couple of days and determine where it is heading. At first, we saw a strong bullish correction from #BTC breaking 114k and heading higher, but as I told you on Monday before the NY open, you can’t trust any metrics provided on Monday because of Columbus Day. Tuesday, Wednesday, and today gave us a clearer picture of the market's next direction.
The golden line at 112k was lost, a crucial level to hold, which dictates a highly bearish scenario unfolding. Despite seeing the biggest liquidation event in history (approximately 10 times bigger than the Covid crash), euphoria still exists, and the market is not yet clear from degens. All of X is still yelling for new highs, and people are still drunk with that bullish hopium.
We are seeing too many crises in the US, from the tariffs imposed on China to the formation of a private equity bubble. Around 6% of the GDP of the US is generated from private equity firms, and 50% of the private equity share is distributed among five companies:
KKR
Apollo
Blackrock
Caryle
CVC Capital Partners
The US private equity has outperformed the public markets by 4-5%. The private equity market was around 200 billion and is now above 1 trillion. Bigger move than the NASDAQ since 2008. At first, the idea was that private equity firms would manage the “riskier” loans so the banks would never intervene to keep the depositors safe from high-risk, high-reward trades, a good idea that was not implemented as presented. This was intended to reduce systemic risk by moving leveraged loans, buyout financing, and other high-risk debt off bank balance sheets. However, banks remain deeply involved in this space, often indirectly, undermining the full separation envisioned by regulators.
So, five firms carry too much weight on their shoulders, if one crushes, the impact will be huge. I hope you can all understand what 6% of the US GDP means and how a slight decrease in revenues, not to mention a company default, can affect the overall market.
I also still stand by my point of MicroStrategy, a company with an unsustainable business model that could crash the entire market. Please read the report I shared about MicroStrategy last week in VIP to understand my point.
What does all this information mean?
For the next 2-10 months I’m switching towards a bearish stance. We remained perfectly calm and held 50% of our #BTC short since 116.7k which I plan to hold for the months to come. As far as alts go, we bought in some golden buy zones, #ONDO at 0.59 and #IMX at 0.39 and we are already 10-20% up from our Entry. These prices were a huge opportunity but I can’t exclude the possibility of revisiting these levels. Still holding my alt bags until further notice. I will keep you updated on my decision regarding alts in the next couple of days.
$BTC
My calls might be early, but very rarely wrong
Better to be early rather than late
These trades need time to unfold
The most profitable strategy during these market conditions and volumes is the one we are following
Saw so many groups taking daily longs and getting liquidated
Good traders pick their battles, study volumes, and make smart decisions
Follow planners, not gamblers
$BTC Report
After some weeks of exercising soldier patience, #BTC is finally following my prediction.
#BTC is currently above 80k and moving towards the distribution area I called weeks ago
The plan is perfectly clear in my eyes, everything above 83k is a short opportunity
I have spread out orders from 83k all the way up to 92k
$HYPE Short Position Setup
I’m taking a Short on #HYPE at CMP
I expect most alts to suffer hugely in the next few months
We will hold this trade probably throughout the summer, so make sure you put small leverage 1-4x MAX
As you have noticed during this price movement and trend, I’m only focused on mid-long-term trades with small leverage rather than the short-term trades we did in the past
You need to adapt your strategy to the market and global trends. Sometimes high-leverage trades are considered pure gambling
$HYPE Short Position Setup
I’m taking a Short on #HYPE at CMP
I expect most alts to suffer hugely in the next few months
We will hold this trade probably throughout the summer, so make sure you put small leverage 1-4x MAX
As you have noticed during this price movement and trend, I’m only focused on mid-long-term trades with small leverage rather than the short-term trades we did in the past
You need to adapt your strategy to the market and global trends. Sometimes high-leverage trades are considered pure gambling
S&P Short Position Update
The top is very close, if you ask me. I am adding some additional size to my short position now at 7,400
I'm moving my SL at 7,800
I am incredibly bearish on the S&P, and depending on how the FED plays their cards, we could see COVID levels or lower
I strongly advise all of you to go back and study the Great Depression. Who profited from
The Great Depression and how? People who had hard gold got instantly rich. Buying property for just a few oz of gold. Commodities outperform in periods of crisis.
But always remember, this period isn’t the same as the 1900s, we have advanced technology, high data speeds, and globalization, so all knowledge has to be adapted to current data.
S&P 500 Short Position Setup
You all know my thesis, silence is only an indication that the plan is working out
When you are positioned correctly there is no point in overtrading
I am entering a short here in S&P and I’m planning to hold it throughout the next weeks
$BTC Report
After some weeks of exercising soldier patience, #BTC is finally following my prediction.
#BTC is currently above 80k and moving towards the distribution area I called weeks ago
The plan is perfectly clear in my eyes, everything above 83k is a short opportunity
I have spread out orders from 83k all the way up to 92k
$BTC Report
#BTC is starting to move, as said in the previous Report
My prediction is that what we are seeing is another scam pump to trick retails and moonboys into entering the market
Don't overanalyze the market and overtrade, plan is simple in my eyes all it takes is dedication and discipline towards the plan.
Haven't traded for some days now, as you have seen, it simply is not worth the risk
I'm currently evaluating the opportunity of entering some shorts in altcoins
Everyone who is calling for bottom prices is simply delusional in my eyes
The only place I feel safe is holding silver and short positions
As you have seen over the past week, I opened a short position on both the S&P and Dow Jones, I expect them to retrace in the following months, coming close to COVID prices
#BTC is finally starting to move according as I said in the previous #BTC Report