Good on all fronts—a fine advance. Yet at 3.77 ATR beyond the 21-day, we are stretched far from our supply lines. Best tighten ranks and guard the gains. $QQQ
Knowledge of the grand principles of warfare can be acquired only through the study of military history and of the battles of the great captains and through experience.
Back in cash as of yesterday and content to do very little. $QQQ
$LASR breaking a range.
$LITE $AAOI triggering a JLSO+3 type action.
$GLW earnings 7/28.
Watching this theme close here... was one to bring us off lows and consolidate first.
Maybe I'm way off base and completely wrong here, but there is discussion around what things will lead next "if" the indexes (mainly SPX/Naz) break out of their recent consols ("if if if" lol, TBD). Call me crazy but perhaps it's some of the very things that got us here in the first place that will lead again? I'm having a hard time finding stronger weekly charts out there (for the momo crowd) than some of these. When in doubt, zoom out. Some examples...
AMD: 1st little consol/flag after huge base breakout with rising 10 week MA caught up. Was pretty much 3WT now closing at new weekly ATH climbing most of the wick
DELL: similar, 3WT and new closing high in HTF (I'm not a HTF expert, but it looks like a flag, smells like a flag... must be a flag lol)
MRVL: 1st pullback after big base breakout, 10 week MA caught up and volume declining in the flag as it pulls back. Good spot if it can turn up from here
ARM: nothing wrong on with this weekly, monster ipo base breakout and setting up another possible leg, daily very tight today under recent DTL, key spot to hold in coming weeks.
SPX has actually been leading the tech stuff of late, so there are other groups doing well also (but yes, very choppy out there). Could also be a pump fake and completely fails lol, but just have to take it one day at a time and stack clues. There are other things coming off lows as well... retail group has been strong, etc.
We shall see how it all shakes out. Hope everyone has a great weekend. 🍻
Code Red.
We are content to do very little, preserving powder and position until the market reveals its intentions. In the meantime, The General has ordered a census of the regimental chickens and an inquiry into whether Marshal Ney’s horse receives more rations than the infantry. Until these matters are settled, no offensive operations shall commence. $NBIS $DELL
Haha! Your inquiry does me great honor. I confess that among the marshals of my imagination stand Captain Andrew Luck and Old Hoss Radbourn—two veterans of uncommon vigor whose campaigns of grit, fortitude, and cheerful absurdity have long served as my inspiration. If traces of their influence are detected in my conduct, then I count the accusation a compliment.
The reconnaissance in force was attempted, but the enemy proved less yielding than anticipated. Accordingly, I ordered the withdrawal from $MRVL and reduced the exposure in $MU and $BE by half, preserving strength for a more favorable campaign.
Should conditions fail to improve, I shall retire the army to cash and establish winter quarters, content to await a clearer field of battle rather than squander men and matériel in unfavorable terrain. The first duty of a general is not to attack—it is to survive for the next campaign.
Major concern for market and haven’t felt this way in months. Today felt like a character change day. Squats everywhere. If we lose the semi’s and related names, which have been the only thing working for weeks, think there is potential for a lot of pain.
I concur. This position appears well chosen. The enemy was lured beneath the recent lows, only to reveal its weakness with a bullish pinbar. The field is favorable; now we wait to see if the market commits its forces to the attack. $FLNC
$FLNC
This has to be one of the best looking charts in the market..
beautiful cup and handle daily base off the 50 EMA
volatility and volume contracting...
looks ready over $26
Same thought. Really liked the undercut of the recent lows with the bullish pinbar candle. That kind of shakeout often clears weak hands and sets the stage for a stronger advance. $FLNC
The semiconductor offensive remains intact, and additional high ground appears within reach. $SMH $QQQ $SPY
The current positions are as follows. Entered $FLNC at the close, looking for a breakout or a quick stop.
$ARM $INTC $MU $MRVL $BE
Currently content to encamp a substantial portion of the treasury within the fortified vaults of $SGOV while the battlefield remains uncertain. Better to preserve powder and provisions than squander cavalry in fog and mud before the next true campaign reveals itself.
The General observes a favorable cup-with-handle formation developing beneath the $YPF banner—an Argentine oil regiment strengthened by the vast shale reserves of Vaca Muerta, rising export ambitions, and reforms now sweeping Buenos Aires. Courtesy, perhaps, of Marshal Druckenmiller’s reconnaissance corps.
Post may seem bearish but couldn't be further from the truth.
Looking for a pause in momentum versus a market top are categorically different conversations. Important to know your personal time frames. I wiggle up and down exposure pretty quickly. Still have a decent amount of long exposure just got some hedges working.
First $SPY test of the 20 in a momentum trend typically the low for months on end. Think we go much higher over the course of the year. Looking to load any pulls hand over fist in the best of the best. 💪