Moxey

Greatness is not reserved for the chosen few, greatness is reserved for the few who choose | If you're going to do something, do it to the best of your ability

[NO CONTEXT HUMANS @HumansNoContext]

2025 be like

[Nathan Michaud @InvestorsLive]

To follow up my prior tweets as the current environment of small caps change - just some thoughts for anyone who got run over in a bad way this week.

$OCTO $CWD or any of the others.

Reality is you never think it'll be you until it is. That's a fact. The game is ALWAYS changing and they're just waiting for that one misstep.

I think the bigger picture here is not blowing out just retail traders but at some point they will be coming for clearing firms.

One should expect tighter risk controls as these happen more and more often. You'll likely be mad at your broker but, you're not the one going in the hole when a client blows up beyond their account equity. In the end, they're protecting not just themselves but you, too.

Typically we just think about what we could have made vs. what you actually would have lost had you been able to size in the amount you really wanted to. Most times that size comes after the name opens up attempting to get out of a bad decision only to 2-3x the loss.

Each time we've seen this craziness they get more and more lethal.

And, retail traders never think it'll be them. You're one stubborn hold away. One front side SIZE trade away. One missed cover away. Doesn't even mean you're a bad trader most of the time but when a stock "breaks" and you see an algo come in etc. you're signing up for it by pushing the button.

It's hard as a small cap trader to keep excelling because you think the answer is continually scaling up risk as a % of account, but at some point the numbers don't work in small caps AND you actually become your own risk.

It's better to be a small fish in a big pond.

Not the big fish in a small pond.

I personally don't take crazy risk anymore in small caps there are times I wish I did, surely. But those times we are just thinking about the reward, not the risk that it took to get that reward. No different than Chinese IPO rigger names. Most only look at the -90% drop but, not the ones that didn't work.

I too, see everyone absolutely crushing the game and surely get some FOMO. But, its weeks like this where I know it'd be a huge draw down, weeks, months or a years worth of work is gone if risk is ignored. And, look you can do all the right things but if the liquidity isn't there, the liquidity isn't there.

The more traders that start to size opportunities the more whipsaw candles we have. The moves become more lethal as all liquidity is taken at all cost. We've obviously had all the signs suggesting this was bound to happen, lots of "close" calls where traders sit down, take a deep breath and say "damn that was close." but it's at that moment you need to be real with yourself, make an agreement with yourself and make proper rules going forward.

I applaud anyone who makes it work but I save my high conviction for stuff like $OPEN $DJT $MSTR $SMCI set ups. If I lose I lose, at least I know my risk and there isn't outlier/unknown risk.

It's probably PTSD from circuits probably in years past probably doesn't help the days I LEARNED. Or just overall fear of what we've seen continually get more and more aggressive.

I am strictly speaking from short side.

There has been endless opportunities long side for solid traders. That's always work in progress for me and I've sucked with it since COVID. I see some insane traders making insane moves especially on weeks like this. Kudos to them.

But, for most it's no issue. Point of this tweet is once you extract a decent chunk from small caps, get out of the game that controls you and focus on large caps, bigger picture and letting your trades work for you ie: @TheShortBear

You'll NEVER see him trade this crap because that's the ONLY way he can risk his career - outlier black swan event. He doesn't need to risk his career anymore.

A goal for me this year was to not get into situations or stocks where I can't quickly leave the desk. You know damn well which names those are. Most of these fall into that category. Again, work in progress. I've done much better but recognizing it gets you half way there.

I'm not really one to talk yet, transition to less is more has taken me two years and still awork in progress. This is also my current journey.

I think the goal should always be to graduate from small caps, trying to become a BEAST in small cap land has a ticking clock.

Goal should be to use small caps for income and/or $ to plug into bigger opportunities that work for you whether it be investing or passive income. The goal should not to be to keep getting bigger and bigger in small cap land.

Otherwise, the game never ends and eventually catches up.

I wish I realized this earlier in my career or maybe didn't ignore it - ie: develop more of a bigger picture look a few years earlier.

So if this was 'your week' I'll leave w/ this - every great trader I know had this kinda week (myself included).

It built the foundation for them, taught them what never to do again and served as a wake up call that no matter what happens risk management is ALWAYS number one.

"But I couldn't fill" and "it was too thin" was known upon entering the trade. THAT is part of risk management.

Yes, volume will let you get away with it most times, until it doesn't.

That's the point.

When traders finally confuse volume with actual liquidity - that's when you're exposed.

I'll leave with this - the markets that taketh also giveth. It was an outlier event. Zoom out. Look at how you've done over the long term - this is a hiccup. Faster you get back to equilibrium faster you're back on the horse.

I always used to put my tail between my legs and trader smaller after a big loss and always admired @elkwood66 for getting right back to it, cuz reality is the next two days after a big blow out are going to give SO MUCH opportunity faster you can clear your head faster it's an event of the past.

Hope this helps 🍻

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

7 luxuries in life:
- time
- health
- a quiet mind
- slow mornings
- a comfortable home
- good friends
- loving relationships

[small_caps_automated @SmallCapSmarts]

Experienced 7-figure+ trader:

Finds an edge, keeps it quiet. Maybe shares with a trusted circle that gives real value back.

Forever NGMI newbie:

Finds an edge, blasts it online, posts stats on Kinfo.
Edge dies in a week/month. Blows up. “Studying harder” again.

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

My average trading day

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

How to succeed at trading:

Choose the goal that will have the largest impact on your trading and judge your day based on whether you progressed at that goal (NOT PNL!)

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

The thing that makes your actions extraordinary isn’t the nature of the action itself, but your commitment to it.

[Bear @BearOnWindows95]

What is a solid annual return for a day trader?

This has to be one of most wildly misunderstood topics in the trading world.

I saw a guy on here today with a large following making fun of a guy for making around 50% annually on a $100k account actively trading….His exact response “so you’re better than Warren Buffett? 🤣”….. Essentially saying that 50% returns aren’t attainable as an active trader.

Also heard a prop firm owner talk about 20% being “incredible” and not easily attainable for an active trader…..

So many problems with both of these comments and beliefs.

Let’s point some things out that should go without saying:

1. Day trading and investing ARE NOT the same.

2. Trading a $5k account is not the same as trading $500k or $5M or $5B.

3. RETURNS ARE RELATIVE to account size.

4. 99.99999% of day traders have nothing in common with hedge funds so why study them or compare your returns to theirs?

5. The less money you are trading (to an extent) the easier it is to make higher % returns.

What’s actually possible?

Using my accounts as a reference (I’m a semi competent trader sometimes).

On a sub $10k futures account it’s nothing to make 100%+ in a month.

On a $50k to $100k account 500%+ annually isn’t crazy.

In my long term account (sub $5M) 40% annually without actively doing much is more than feasible.

Also I’m a nobody, there are guys out there doing 10x+ what I’m doing.

Stop having low standards.

[Brian Lee @BrianLeeTrades]

Beginners need to make money everyday, but trading maturity is realizing that it comes in waves.

When others are fearful and discouraged, you expect as much and wait patiently for the next opportunity.

Coincidentally when others lose faith and abandon their process, that’s when the opportunities arrive.

[Moxey @MoxeyMindset]

@BrianLeeTrades Great thanks!

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

”In trading, everything works sometimes and nothing works always” – Ed Seykota

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

The results you achieve by breaking your rules are worthless, no matter how large the profits.
The moment you break your rules, you are no longer a trader.

A system with an edge is one that leaves profits after repeatedly winning and losing according to the rules.
Trying to conveniently avoid only losses is the same as abandoning the system.

People who break the rules:
- Do not understand why losses lead to profits.
- Have not properly tested their system.
- Do not understand probabilistic thinking.
- Misunderstand that a trader's job is to win the current trade.

Such individuals are completely unprepared as traders and should learn the fundamentals of trading again before putting money at risk.

This may sound harsh, but it is not me being harsh—it is the market that is harsh.
Never underestimate the market.
If you continue breaking your rules, you will only bring misfortune upon yourself.
Face trading and yourself seriously.

What you need to do and what you should focus on is written here every day by me.

Good night 😴

[Brian Lee @BrianLeeTrades]

99% of people will say the following going into New Years:

My goal is to go bigger and bigger and be bigger, my wins need to be bigger and that means my size needs to be bigger. Bigger size and bigger trades means bigger PNL.

Here’s what I’m focusing on:

I want to respect my rules as best as possible, I want to limit my mistakes and not take any one trade or trading day personally.

The dynamic of risk and reward always skews reward en masse. But, provided you have edge, you could double or even triple your net PNL by removing mistakes and outlier losing days. Two different ways to reach the same outcome, greater PNL.

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

"You should review your rules at the beginning of the day and review your trading at the end of the day. If you followed your rules, even if you lost money, pat yourself on the back."

~ Dr. Van K. Tharp

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

Your actions reflect your beliefs and thought processes.

If you cannot follow the rules:
- You believe that short-term wins and losses are important.
- You do not trust the statistical edge of the system.
- You think that wins and losses are your own responsibility or achievement.

So do the opposite of this:
- Consider the rules more important than immediate wins and losses.
- Backtest until you can trust the system's statistical edge.
- Understand that the responsibility for wins and losses generated by following the rules is not yours; your responsibility is only to follow the rules.

Good night😴

[Brian Lee @BrianLeeTrades]

I am starting to realize that there are two and a half dominant trading mentalities and it can be boiled down to these:

1) Casino mentality: Treating trading as one is the 'house', emphasizing edge and the law of large numbers. This philosophy emphasizes consistency, time and math. The house edge exists within casino games by taking marginal % advantages over the player, however trading actually has far more edge than +1/2/5%.

Personally I prefer this and I think you can put a lot of my thought processes into this box.

2) Poker mentality: Emphasizing and extrapolating the game of poker towards the game of trading and using this philosophy to guide major decisions such as bet sizing, opportunity and bankroll management.

Undoubtedly analogous to trading in many ways, I think this one makes the MOST sense to the MOST amount of people because of the parallels. It also makes the MOST sense because making money with large wins and minimizing losers is easy to understand.

2.5) Dumbass gamblers: Philosophy is centered around winning at all costs, willing to forsake trading convention and ego-driven decision making. Goals are egregiously large, imagine big losses as "bad luck" and would use martingale as their primary strategy if given unlimited resources.

The allure of financial markets is that any fool can appear a genius given the right set of circumstances.

The thing that #1 and #2 share is intentionality and adherence to a set of principles that guide decisions. Both are equally able to navigate markets because there are fundamental systems that are derived from mathematics and profitability is largely a numbers game with some bells and whistles.

Think on it!

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

No matter how much profit you gain by breaking the rules, it is worthless.
The moment you break the rules, you are no longer a trader.

A system with an edge is one where profits remain after repeatedly winning and losing while following the rules.
Trying to conveniently avoid only losses is the same as abandoning the system.

Those who break the rules do not understand why losses lead to profits.
They haven’t thoroughly tested their system.
They don’t understand probabilistic thinking.
They mistakenly believe that the trader’s job is to win each trade in front of them.
They are not functioning as a trader at all and should relearn trading before putting money at risk.

This may sound harsh, but it's not me being harsh - it's the market that's harsh.
Don't underestimate the market.
If you keep breaking the rules, it will only lead to misfortune.
Face trading and yourself seriously.
What you need is written here by me every day.

Good night😴

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

If you're not losing money, you're probably not making money either.

Trading is a numbers game -you win by taking risks and staying exposed.

Just don't blow up in the process.

Controlled losses... always.