$HIMS guided for $6.5B in revenue by 2030.
I think they sandbagged — that’s only a ~22% CAGR from 2025.
Here’s my Bear, Base, and Bull case for where they really might land:
Bear Case (25% CAGR): 🔴
Revenue grows modestly off their 2025 guide of $2.35B
👉 Lands them at $7.19B by 2030
That’s already ~10% higher than what they told the Street
Base Case (30% CAGR): 🟡
Still conservative considering the vertical tailwinds (GLP-1, mental health, personalization, new launches)
👉 Puts them at $8.74B by 2030
This is what I think is most realistically achievable — and they have plenty of cash and margin to reinvest along the way
Bull Case (35% CAGR): 🟢
If GLP-1s continue to compound, they scale globally, and roll out testosterone, menopause, fertility, and chronic care by 2026–2028?
👉 You’re looking at $10.76B in revenue by 2030
That’s a 4.5x increase over 2025 — while maintaining positive cash flow and expanding margins
Now here’s the kicker:
All of these scenarios assume zero multiple expansion
But if $HIMS trades at just 5–6x sales in 2030 — which is reasonable for 20%+ margins — then:
$7.19B → $35–43B valuation(3.5x)
$8.74B → $44–52B valuation(4.3x)
$10.76B → $54–64B valuation(5.5x)
Current market cap? ~$11B
So when people ask if $HIMS is still early…
You’re looking at a 5-year window with the potential to 4–6x revenue and possibly 3-6x valuation — while scaling profitably.
This is what compounding at scale looks like
This is what the market still isn’t pricing in
And this is why I think the $6.5B guide was the floor, not the ceiling
�� $TSLL 🚨
I’m a known $TSLA bear, but man this chart is too good to pass up on.
So much upside potential and hardly any downside risk.
Trading 101 here.