If you join a startup and they give you:
- a MacBook
- Codex and Claude subscriptions
- your job offer on a Sunday night
- a random urgent task on your first day
- a founding team with kids
you’re probably in the right place.
If they give you:
- a Windows laptop
- one responsibility for the next six months
- Outlook
- PowerPoint decks
- an office on the outskirts of town
good luck. You’re going to need it.
"every single trader out there seems to make the same mistake over and over again. their position size is probably two to ten times more than it should be."
martin shkreli built a kelly criterion simulator to test exactly this.
"most folks don't actually have an edge when they trade. but if they did, they're trading as if they had a 4x or 5x kelly edge."
"if you run the simulator, you will go to zero each time."
"even with a 60/40 edge on every trade you make, you'll go bust if you overbet."
"and who has a 60/40 edge in the stock market? nobody has a 60/40 edge."
even a real edge, sized wrong, still ends at zero.
sizing is too commonly the part I see every trader consider second or third.
SASA bilançosunda bence asıl hikaye net kar değil operasyonel taraftaki belirgin toparlanma. Q2’de 21,5 mlr TL ciro ve 5,5 mlr TL FAVÖK var. FAVÖK marjı %19,7’den %25,4’e çıkmış. Hacimler güçlü, PTA tam kapasiteye yakın çalışıyor ve yeni yatırımların katkısını artık rakamlarda görmeye başlıyoruz. Operasyonel tarafta benim daha çok önemsediğim kısım burası.
Net kar tarafı ise oldukça muhasebesel. Dolayısıyla manşet net kara bakarak bilanço okumak yanıltıcı. Bilançoda en güçlü gördüğüm taraf borcun aşağı gelmesi. Net borç 147,6 mlr TL’den 136,2 mlr TL’ye gerilemiş. Yatırımların artık borç yaratma aşamasından FAVÖK üretme aşamasına geçmesi önemli. Buradaki temel risk ise nakit akışı. Q2 işletme nakit akışı -8,4 mlr TL. Yani operasyon düzeliyor ama henüz yeterince nakde dönmüyor.
Net kar kötü ama operasyon beklediğimden daha iyi. FAVÖK ve marjlar toparlanıyor, net borç düşüyor. Bundan sonra kritik konu bu operasyonel iyileşmenin devam edip nakit üretmeye başlaması.
Highly disagreeable women are often preferred by intelligent men over agreeable ones because they possess an internal axis. She can remain loyal to her own values and stand against the world for them. Agreeable women can become loyal to everyone and therefore to no one. Disagreeable women usually have stronger values and less porous boundaries, making infidelity less likely. They become agreeable only to their man, after trust and respect are earned and their respect is rarely ever easily acquired.
DON’T WASTE YOUR LIFE
Be egoistical. Stop caring about what they think. Let everyone judge you. Make yourself look silly. Take risks. Embarrass yourself on purpose. Don’t be affected by their opinions. Only you exist. Become the main character. Make your life worth living. Have no regrets at the end of each day.
You’re allowing everyone to have an effect on your life resources: time, money, and energy, while neglecting what you really want from life, FROM YOUR OWN LIFE.
Embarrassment is the word used for the unconscious agreement on certain things, so you become afraid to shine.
To show your talents.
To express your preferences.
To tell people what your interests are.
Living every day chronically afraid of others’ judgment is not a life - it’s a performance.
“Don’t do this.” “Don’t do that.” “You’re embarrassing yourself.” “We want you to become XYZ.”
WHO ARE THEY to teach you how to live and tell you what to do with your life in the first place?
It’s BEYOND the absurd.
Everyone deep down knows this, but continues to ignore it and accept it as “This is what life is.”
Because their programming makes them operate in fear, their CNS has adapted to it, and the subconscious mind thinks that it’s normal.
Reprogram everything society and your family told you life is. One of the reasons why you shouldn’t listen to them about everything is because your mission is to surpass what you had in the past, so you can discover how fulfilling living can be.
Tony Robbins said it best:
“You are now at a crossroads. This is your opportunity to make the most important decision you will ever make. Forget your past. Who are you now? Who have you decided you really are now? Don't think about who you have been. Who are you now? Who have you decided to become? Make this decision consciously. Make it carefully. Make it powerfully. Then act upon it.”
Your potential should fucking terrify you. Not because it's out of reach. But because it's there for the taking. You've seen glimpses. In the rare moments you actually go all in. And deep down, you know what would happen if you stopped playing small and gave it everything. That's the scary part. Not failure. But the fact that you're capable of so much more. It's like owning a Ferrari and refusing to take it out of first gear. And every day you don't act on it, you feel it. Quietly. Heavily. Like a life you were supposed to live is waiting for you to show up. So show the fuck up.
Patience is the single most difficult skill to master for investing well. Too, the most impactful.
Position sizing trails patience. The more patience, the largera a position can be.
One must not mistake patience for foolhardiness.
A hardy fool is just a hardy fool.
notes from eileen gu:
• you can do anything you put your mind to
• be impossible to categorize. most people spend their lives trying to fit into one box. you must break that box.
• one exceptional skill can become the distribution channel for five others
• don’t spend your whole life competing in someone else’s game. build a career so unique there isn’t really anyone to compare you to.
• your multitudes are your unfair advantage
• ambition can be feminine
• play long games
• be remembered for expanding what’s possible
what an icon truly
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were asked about Jim Simons' Medallion fund, ~39% a year, net of fees, for three decades, and whether Berkshire would ever hire a quant to trade like that.
Their answer is a masterclass:
"we're not trying to make money trading stocks. we don't think we know how to do it. if we knew how, we'd probably be trading stocks too. but we don't, and we really don't trust anybody else to do it for us."
two of the greatest investors, plainly saying: that's not our edge, so we don't play there.
then Munger explained why even Renaissance had a ceiling:
"if they tried to do it too much, they destroyed their own advantage. there was a limit on the amount they could make."
the better the edge, the smaller it often is. the most inefficient, hardest-to-find opportunities pay the most per dollar, which is exactly why most edges of those kinda can't scale that aggressively. capacity and edge trade off against each other.
none of which takes away from what Simons built. it just explains why it didn't scale to manage $1 trillion.
I wish I could express to you the energy and spirit moving through this once great city at this exact moment in time.
It was electric, it was invigorating and it was contagious.
Pure magic.
Everyone who walked those streets seemed like they had a mission and a dream with the tenacity and will to fulfill it.
You became a better and more ambitious person by just being in proximity of it.
Then after we worked hard? we played long past the sun came up.
It is now a whispered legend of a city that once was.