Will the ICT algorithm change?
I get asked this question almost on a daily basis.
Short answer. No.
Why?
Because you have to understand the mechanics behind the algorithm and why the market moves the way it does.
Let's take this tweet for example. How is that related? Well.. You're reading it, right? Notice how I used the word ICT in the title? The algorithm that governs your twitter feed will expose content to you that will be of interest (for the most part). Its job is to retain user engagement on its platform. Its purpose is to compete for our attention in the social media space, which is always becoming more competitive. The longer the tweet, the more time you spend reading it and thus, sending positive feedback to the algorithm, which in turn will increase the ranking of this tweet for exposure. (๐)
So, what does this have to do with the trading algorithm?
Well, the algorithms that govern the content on social media have been programmed to understand human psychology. The algorithms are able to capitalise on human behaviour patterns based on years of data.
The algorithm that governs market price isn't much different. It has also been programmed on human psychology. Since the herd mentality of humans will never change, neither with the algorithm. Decades of data has been collected, and the market movement is designed to manipulate human emotions. There are only so many ways the market can do this. Consolidation, expansion, reversal, retracment. It moves from liquidity to liquidity, and liquidity is the blood of these markets.
In order for the algorithm to change, one must assume that everyone who understands how the algorithm works will milk the market. After spending half a decade learning how this algorithm moves, the harsh truth is this.. The algorithm is incredibly complicated. Using the information to trade still requires a tremendous amount of psychological resilience, and impeccable money management. I believe the odds of success are greatly improved with understanding how the algorithm works, but the vast majority of people will still not be able to make money due to its complexity and the mental investment needed in order to carve out an income stream. So, nothing really changes. Retail is still just a drop in the ocean.
In conclusion, stop wasting time worrying about whether the algorithm will change or not. For it to change, human behaviour will have to change, and history teaches us that never happens. Greed will always be greedy..