Michael Thomas

Former radio broadcast meteorologist/
Former high school meteorology teacher/
Current middle school science teacher

[Michael Thomas @MrTScienceWx]

@NASAArtemis how much does all the fuel weigh that’s been loaded into the rocket? East Shore Middle School Period 6 Science Clas

[Michael Thomas @MrTScienceWx]

@Eweather13 snow heavy in Milford…quite a surprise this morning! 1.1”

[Michael Thomas @MrTScienceWx]

@Eweather13 temperature continues to drop in Milford as the snow ramps up

[Michael Thomas @MrTScienceWx]

@cthsfb @SCCcommissioner All of the dates are incorrect

[Bob Maxon @bobmaxon]

It is not a lot, but the timing might mean some slippery patches out there early tomorrow morning for the early risers on a Saturday, like hockey parents! Scattered squalls fly by in the afternoon too. #NBCCT

[eweather @Eweather13]

Updated snowfall map… all in a solid 6-12” across most of the area. A bit less across SE CT, S RI, SE MA and northern MA. Also a jackpot zone cuts right through CT, N RI to near Boston where 8-14” is likely. This won’t be perfect for everyone, but you have the general idea. And there will likely be surprises. For example Cape Cod is in my 3-6” zone and some models have much more there…so close.

[eweather @Eweather13]

National blend of models calling out where the bullseye may end up.

[NWS New York NY @NWSNewYorkNY]

Here is our official snowfall forecast for late Monday night and Tuesday. #NYwx #CTwx #NJwx #NYCwx

[NWS Boston @NWSBoston]

A Winter Storm Watch is now if effect on Tuesday for much of Southern New England. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches is possible. Hazardous travel conditions possible for both the Tuesday morning and afternoon commute. #MAWX #RIWX #CTWX

[eweather @Eweather13]

Here’s the impact to the Euro ensemble mean snowfall trend. More robust due to the slowing and a touch south as the track shifted south.

[Mark Dixon @MarkDixonTV]

Beyond the unseasonably warm weekend... we are keenly focused on Tuesday, as a coastal storm likely brings plowable snow & wind to CT. Our First Alert Team of meteorologists will keep you up to date in the coming days as to how model trends evolve, and therefore impacts...

[NsfwWx ❄️ @NsfwWx]

don't forget all of the discussion about the storm in my Patreon is at the "be my Valentine blizzard thread"

join for free or just 2$ a month to see all the maps and discussion https://t.co/LCDRFKwHi1

[NsfwWx ❄️ @NsfwWx]

GFS with another crush job for NEPA/NNJ/hudson valley and NE

[eweather @Eweather13]

And here’s that 12z Euro…..mostly a scenario 2, but tight with some mixing south.

[Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan]

Tuesday could be fun! I'll have the latest coming up at 4.

[eweather @Eweather13]

12z GFS….its a narrow swath of snow, centered right over SNE.

[eweather @Eweather13]

06z Euro ensembles….perfect for a SNE snowstorm. Will it hold?!

[eweather @Eweather13]

40-60% probability for 6”+ of snow this run

[eweather @Eweather13]

Here are the ensembles. That’s the 00z GFS.

I am keeping an eye on the trends. The timing is Monday night through Tuesday morning. If scenario 2 plays out, things should improve Tuesday afternoon…but if the storm slows there could be lingering impacts into the afternoon. For now I would plan on the Tuesday morning commute being impacted. Expect gusty winds, especially at the shore. I am not seeing a damaging wind signal at the moment. Coastal flooding is a concern as well with high astronomical tides.

Bottom line, a plowable snowfall still on the table for all of SNE, but this storm could also mostly miss south. The surface low forms near Texas tomorrow so forecast confidence should begin to improve then. If a snow map is needed, I will make one this weekend. Stay tuned.

[Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan]

Odds for accumulating snow have increased a bit for Tuesday. Still plenty of time to watch things!