THREAT INCREASES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION .
FYI as I’m posting this discussion waiting on one more piece of guidance to confirm HIGH IMPACT Snowstorm is becoming more in focus .
I will NOT give you a bunch of scenarios as that drives everyone nuts , my aim is to give you the most honest & accurate forecast . Obviously it’s still early & forecast snow amounts can change .. however been forecasting East coast storms for 40 years experience counts .
DISCUSSION :
Bitter cold airmass will invade the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic starting Saturday . Powerful upper air energy associated with plunging Polar Vortex will ignite storm development in the Southern Plains/ Tennessee Valley on Saturday . A transfer of energy to the Carolina coast will flip the switch for storm development “( Intensifying coastal storm )
Model trends have been tracking the storm further North up along the coast (Trend is your freind ) Euro model is the most intense & closest to the coast than the Global models GFS , I trust Euro more than GFS , because of its history of handling East coast winter storms than all others .
GFS has just completed its cycle & is NOW more align with Euro .
MY FORECAST
ALL OUT DANGEROUS SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT ENTIRE REGION .. Nor’easter !
Snow arrives between 3am -5Am Sunday morning . Snow & wind will increase greatly during the afternoon , expect rapidly accumulating snow as bitter cold will be locked in . Wind driven snow will reduce visibilities . Dangerous wind chills BELOW ZERO , temps hold in the teens . This storm will be a slow mover so an extended period of Snow , ending before noon on Monday . We must keep in mind the snow ratios with bitter cold in place 1 inch of liquid = 10 inches of snow .
Right now snow amounts 12-16inches +
Pending on exact track .. will tweak amounts higher or lower as we get within the put the hammer down forecast as use as a rule 48 hrs prior to the event .
Coastal flooding likely on Gale Force NE winds 20-35mph with higher gusts 40mph + Mixing could take place along Delaware coast & perhaps immediate coast of SNJ .. need to see future runs .
We are ALL in the Snow bullseye including distant NW burbs .
Nor’easter will impact Mid-Atlantic -Northeast , From DC-NYC-BOS
Interior Va / Carolina’s with mounts into the 20+ range
NEXT UPDATE TOMORROW or if any dramatic change takes place .
By FRIDAY will have the go to forecast 48hrs prior to storm
Thank you for your trust , I will always be honest with you & if I blow it you will be sure to let me know :)
@jaketapper Jake, I usually like your take of Philly sports related tweets, but the ump was not wrong. You can’t mark on the ground where you feel the ball was. You just can’t do that.