EJL

Fights, foolishness, friends, and fun times in 140 characters or less. Also alliterations. Wife to @niklentz ✝️🙏🏻

[EJL @Mrs_Carny]

@NikLentz 💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA was started roughly 18 months ago. Since then, our systematic trading strategies have produced a 39.52% return with significantly better risk adjusted metrics, while our non-correlated Alpha portfolio has returned 23.89%.

Since inception:

Systematic Strategies: +39.52%
Alpha Portfolio: +23.89%
Combined: +31.71%

The goal has never been to chase returns at any cost. It is to build repeatable strategies across different market environments, manage risk, and find Alpha that does not rely on the broad market simply going higher. All tracked daily with real money trades. No hindsight bullshit.

@Jimmyjude13 @DSMMAprivate

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

Last three public trade ideas on @tradingview. Giving away free Alpha all the time. Gold at the lows, BTC at the lows and NLFX at the lows.

No BS calls after the fact like most do on here.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

Released every morning for DSMMA clients. Link in Bio.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Offering our client Monthly Roundtable for your enjoyment. Pinned tweet for details on becoming a client.

https://t.co/aaMgWR1wo8

[EJL @Mrs_Carny]

Happy birthday to our number 1 guy @NikLentz …we love you! ❤️❤️❤️

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

08/12/2026 - Market and CPI Result Overview:

Posted every morning with technical and macro briefs from @NikLentz and @Jimmyjude13, along with the Full Suite of TradingView indicators and daily trading zones.

[EJL @Mrs_Carny]

@forexflowlive @NikLentz Alright I think we’ve tortured you enough 😂 Thank you for the bday wishes 😊

[EJL @Mrs_Carny]

@NikLentz @forexflowlive Early morning twitter is an odd place! I think I need a cup of coffee 😂

[EJL @Mrs_Carny]

@NikLentz 🥰

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
08/07/2026

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EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Constructive on equities medium term, cautious on trading duration, but longer-term yields are attractive, selective across commodities.

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NON-FARM

Non-Farm today is expected around 80k, with unemployment at 4.2% and average earnings at 3.5%. The keys to watch are whether we see a tick back up in the unemployment rate after it moved lower last report, and whether earnings are keeping pace with inflation. On a weak number with higher unemployment, we would expect a short-term pop in bonds across the curve and upside pressure in the rest of the 2026 SOFR contracts.

This will likely be short lived, with inflation data coming up and the bond market's refusal to take weakening labor data seriously. The fear remains inflation and supply dynamics, and these sentiment flips always lag in bonds versus stocks. On a strong report, there will be a full hike priced into September and bonds as a whole will struggle. Longer term, a healthy economic backdrop supports yields at current levels and does not suggest they need to move materially higher. In the near term, a strong report will cause selling across the curve.

For stock indices, it is a harder read. Earnings have been fantastic. There are almost no signs of slowing growth or that we have hit peak earnings, and while we very well could have, it is unlikely the market will care until it has to. Too many people continue to get left behind thinking valuations cannot possibly maintain this type of earnings or growth, but we have now passed another earnings season that beat already elevated expectations.

On a very hot number, I would expect a flash down in equities, but longer term it is difficult to see sustained selling when the economy is doing well. Stocks have largely detached themselves from the short-term interest rate discussion, and the old rate-manipulation cycles that drove stock euphoria are fading in both correlation and sentiment. The feed-through mechanisms are not what they used to be as the economy and tech sectors have evolved, and the best businesses are no longer as interest-rate sensitive.

The main issue for stocks will be long-term interest rates, as 3% real yields are hard to pass up and higher yields in general make elevated multiples less attractive. However, if the bond market itself does not want to invest in longer duration, the idea that people will blow out stock positions to buy them remains unlikely.

We caught the turn in gold, trimmed our positions into the report, and moved stops to break even. Gold has momentum to the upside and is more likely to move with oil than be heavily affected by the Non-Farm data. Obviously, higher real rates are negative for gold, but a lot of that has already been priced in through the failed attempts to break below 4k.

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[Jared Johnson @jaredjjohnson]

Did well in equities but wanted to trade macro. @NikLentz spent years studying currencies and bonds to get there. Finding your niche usually lands somewhere different than where you start.

Full episode: https://t.co/lxgIoPPeO2
More at: https://t.co/id3D3ppUWu

[Jared Johnson @jaredjjohnson]

Dropped out of medical school to become a professional fighter. Started making real money right as 2008 hit. @NikLentz was the only one with cash while everyone around him was going broke.

Full episode: https://t.co/lxgIoPPeO2
More at: https://t.co/id3D3ppUWu

[Jared Johnson @jaredjjohnson]

Different sectors doesn't mean diversified. @NikLentz on what true diversification actually means: non-correlated systems, 10 to 15 running simultaneously, not asset labels.

Full episode: https://t.co/lxgIoPPeO2

More at: https://t.co/id3D3ppUWu

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

The 5-day rolling breadth thrust remains quite positive, but yesterday's session was nothing special. In fact, more stocks fell below their moving averages than climbed above them.

That tells us breadth has improved meaningfully over the past week, but yesterday alone was a modest deterioration rather than a continuation of the thrust. The recent improvement is encouraging, but it is not yet the type of breadth expansion that typically marks a durable long-term low.

If we see strong follow through today, those metrics should improve further and would increase the probability that a near-term low is in place. At this point, however, the evidence is supportive of a short-term low rather than a major long-term bottom.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

BONDS / RATES / FX

Bonds are giving cross signals. When we look at the Fed meeting, it is obvious why there was a longer-duration scare. I believe short-term interest rates do little to tame inflation, especially supply-side inflation, but the bond market as a whole was expecting a very hawkish overtone. It did not get one. That led to instant selling across longer-duration bonds. In the near term, the meeting is being taken as Warsh suggesting that the long bond should be yielding higher, which in turn will tighten financial conditions rather than use aggressive hikes to the front of the curve.

On the “positive” side, sentiment levels are in the tank. CCS metrics are very extended to the downside, and social sentiment is hitting new lows. All of this points to an overextension to the downside.

Those signals are at odds, but the bond market has to be treated very differently than stocks. Bonds trend more, are more prone to panic around data and Fed releases, and can become far more extended to either side of the equation. They are less mean-reverting and run on longer-term narratives. This is creating all kinds of great opportunities in corporate bond markets, while also setting up longer-term TIPS and duration entries.

However, in the near term, this is NOT the time to lever up or be aggressive on the long side in intraday or short-term swing bond futures trades. Washout risk remains high, and a pop in 30-year yields is entirely possible. This is why I chose to hold TLT and LTPZ positions in the Alpha portfolio. We are running into long-term value levels across the bond curve, but that does not mean buying today will produce no drawdown. It is a great time to add duration risk to diversify portfolio construction, but from a trading standpoint, it is not time to get aggressively long.

I have been expecting a period of dollar weakness, as I believed the Fed's hawkish overtone would likely be undercut. That is happening this morning, and our new USD/JPY short is starting to work. Overall, I expect a period of dollar weakness, but over the longer term, I still view this as a pullback within an otherwise neutral dollar trend.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

07/29/2026 - DSMMA Market Overview:

Posted every morning with technical and macro briefs from @NikLentz and @Jimmyjude13, along with the Full Suite of TradingView indicators and zones.

[Nik “The Carny” Lentz @NikLentz]

DSMMA Morning Brief
07/29/2026

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EXECUTIVE SNAPSHOT

POSTURE: Constructive. Add quality on weakness while avoiding broad index beta.

A hawkish hold is already well priced into today’s Fed meeting, making a less-hawkish outcome the more likely surprise. Earnings continue to support a healthy U.S. economy, and the recent 10% correction in the NQ looks more like a positioning reset than the start of a broader bear market.

We continue to favor software over hardware as leadership rotates beneath the surface. Geopolitical headlines are still creating volatility, but the market is increasingly looking through them rather than treating them as lasting macro risks. Longer-duration bonds remain attractive near 3% real rates, oil spikes are more likely to be sold than signal a structural inflation cycle, and BTC remains a rally to sell rather than a new leadership asset.

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MACRO

It's Fed day, which means get excited to wait until 2 p.m. The Fed is expected to hold rates while projecting a hawkish tone. Barring a rate hike today, it would be difficult to exceed current hawkish expectations, making a short-term dovish surprise a decently possible outcome.

Overnight, Iran fired missiles at a base in Jordan, which brought retaliatory attacks from both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The market is starting to look past the war as the long-term importance of the Strait shifts and Iran continues picking fights across the Middle East and with the U.S.

While no one can deny their grit, the market is increasingly pricing an outcome where Iran is forced to make a deal. The attacks are also damaging the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s long-term push to turn the region into a global business and travel hub, which adds even more pressure on neighboring countries to bring the conflict to an end.

The KOSPI continues to crash daily, but is becoming extended to the downside. These types of forced liquidations often present the best buying opportunities. However, when you look at what is holding the market and sentiment higher, it is largely cyclical businesses at peak earnings and low forward multiples. While they look strong on paper, that level of demand is unlikely to be sustained. It presents a clear case for moving out of hardware and other physical names and back into the software sector.

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EQUITIES

Equities sold off a bit overnight on the Iran drama, but were bought into the European session. For now, we continue to favor holding our portfolio of individual names across the software and healthcare sectors while avoiding broad stock index beta. We have major earnings tonight following the Fed decision, which should provide final confirmation of what has been a very positive earnings season across the riskier, extended tech sectors.

If software names continue to show no signs of a slowdown from the AI vibe-coding takeover theme, and there is no deterioration in earnings, the capex and circular-financing fears will likely be looked past for another quarter. The NQ went through a 10% correction, and without data supporting the end of the bull run or a turn in earnings, investors will likely buy the dip rather than fear the ride is over.

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BONDS / RATES / FX

The bond market is always nervous about everything, and today will be no different. With the lack of forward guidance, market participants are forced to hedge books more aggressively. The current SOFR and OIS curves price a hold at this meeting, with two hikes likely before the end of Q1 2027.

We still like the longer-duration plays and remain focused on owning real rates near 3%. We also see no reason to fear the inflation metrics, as they continue to fall and move toward target. The target itself has effectively shifted to a floating range, even if the Fed cannot say that outright at this time. Outside of the transitory oil spike, there is little reason to fear an inflationary decade. That makes the current dynamics risky in the near term, but they present very good long-term value in TIPS and other longer-duration structures.

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COMMODITIES

Oil spiked overnight following the “surprise” Iran attack. While we discussed the $77–$80 range as a good spot to take a shot on a scalp higher in CL, we would begin scaling out of the position into strength. For now, the oil market is reacting relatively benignly to the news, and $80 oil does not create enough pressure on the economy. Sustained prices above $90 are where the real stress would begin. Barring that, these oil spikes are more likely to be sold into, as some version of a fake peace deal remains the most logical outcome over the next six months.

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CRYPTO (BTC)

The BTC breakout remains in play, and as long as general risk sentiment does not crash, it will remain intact. However, this is a rally to sell positions into. The bear market is not over, and even with near-perfect technical structures, BTC is struggling to separate to the upside. Sellers remain active, and we see little reason for BTC to outperform or diverge from general risk.

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Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.

All opinions are my own. **I am not a professional.** Please trade responsibly

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== Preparation Beats Prediction ==

@DSMMAprivate

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Good luck and God Bless!

- Nik "The Carny" Lentz