Yemen News Observers

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The latest Houthi attacks, particularly the horrific massacre of young security recruits in Shabwa, should serve as a wake-up call. The Houthis are escalating across multiple fronts, targeting government institutions, military personnel, civilian infrastructure, and threatening regional security. The stakes are rising dangerously, and the cost of inaction is growing.

The Yemeni government's appeal to the UN to designate the Houthis a terrorist organization is understandable. But designation alone will neither alter the balance of power on the ground nor deter further escalation. Neither will another round of international condemnations.

What is increasingly alarming is the widening gap between the scale of the Houthi threat and the Yemeni government's ability to confront it. The Houthis have developed increasingly sophisticated military capabilities, while the government is expected to fight an expanding war with depleted resources, overstretched institutions, and uncertain international backing. This is not a sustainable equation, militarily or politically.

There is a glaring contradiction in the international approach to Yemen. The world acknowledges the threat the Houthis pose to regional security and global commerce, yet remains reluctant to adequately support the Yemeni state and the forces expected to confront them. You cannot demand that Yemen contain a threat of international proportions while denying it the means to do so.

But external support alone will not be enough. The anti-Houthi camp faces a more fundamental test: whether its competing factions can transform a shared enemy into a shared national project. Military coordination is necessary, but a coalition that cannot agree on the political order it seeks to establish will struggle to translate battlefield gains into lasting strategic success.

The Houthis have a clear vision of the Yemen they want to impose, however coercive and destructive. Their opponents must demonstrate that they offer something fundamentally different, and more credible, than another collection of armed factions competing for power.

The battle for Yemen will not be decided by firepower alone. It will also be decided by whether the government and its allies can convince Yemenis that restoring the state means restoring their rights, security, dignity, and a future worth believing in.

I explain to Erica @CNN here.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

Some memories stay with you for a lifetime.

As a little boy growing up in Yemen, learning English, I would sit beside my late father as he turned on CNN to watch Christiane Amanpour reporting from war zones and some of the most dangerous corners of the world. I was mesmerized by her courage, her questions, and the extraordinary people and places she brought into our living room.

Never in my wildest dreams could I have imagined that one day she would be reporting on my own country, Yemen, and that the little boy watching her in awe would grow up to be interviewed by her.

But what makes that memory truly precious is that my father lived to see it. The man who introduced me to Amanpour, who once sat beside me as I struggled to understand her English, got to watch his own son speaking to her. I can only imagine what went through his heart in that moment. But I knew how proud he was. And knowing that he got to witness that full-circle moment is something I will cherish for the rest of my life.

Christiane, you are more than an icon of journalism. You helped shape how an entire generation saw and understood the world. You inspired curiosity, courage, and compassion in countless people, including a little boy in Yemen who never imagined his own voice would one day reach you.

As you close this remarkable chapter at CNN and embark on whatever comes next, I wish you every success and happiness. You leave behind an extraordinary legacy, not just in journalism, but in the lives of people you may never even know you touched.

Mine is one of them. And because of you, I have a beautiful memory of my father that I will carry forever.

Thank you, Christiane, and all the very best on your next adventure.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

I spent five months in Houthi detention, where I experienced firsthand the brutality and repression of a movement that rules through fear and intimidation. But my understanding of the Houthis and Yemen's war extends well beyond my own imprisonment. I lived in Sana'a most of my life and during the early years of the conflict, witnessing their abuses against civilians, the systematic erosion of freedoms, and the devastating human cost of a war that has torn families apart and pushed millions into desperation.

Those experiences left me with no illusions about the nature of the Houthis or the need to confront them. But they also taught me that military force, however necessary, must be guided by a clear political strategy if Yemen is to escape this devastating cycle of conflict.

Military action has an important role in countering Houthi advances, degrading their capabilities, and creating leverage for meaningful negotiations. But military gains, however significant, cannot by themselves resolve the underlying political conflict or guarantee lasting stability.

My concern is the increasingly entrenched **zero-sum mentality**, where the complete annihilation of one side is seen as the only acceptable outcome. This approach risks exacting an enormous human, political, and economic toll. It is a steep and uncertain road, with no guarantee that even a costly military victory would deliver the political outcomes its advocates envision. Yemen has already paid far too high a price for us to ignore these realities.

The question is not whether military force has a role, but what political outcome it is intended to achieve, at what cost, and with what realistic prospect of success. Military pressure and diplomacy must reinforce one another, rather than be treated as competing alternatives.

That requires strengthening the unity and effectiveness of Yemen's government, rebuilding state institutions, and offering Yemenis a credible political alternative to Houthi rule. It also demands a careful assessment of direct foreign military intervention, which risks allowing the Houthis to recast their struggle for power as resistance to foreign occupation, potentially mobilizing Yemenis who would otherwise oppose them.

The ultimate objective must remain restoring the authority and sovereignty of the Yemeni state and creating the conditions for a just and durable peace. Achieving that will require strategic clarity, difficult compromises, and a willingness to distinguish between what is militarily possible and what is politically sustainable.

Yemen needs neither an open-ended military campaign nor diplomacy disconnected from realities on the ground. It needs a coherent strategy that uses military pressure to create political leverage, strengthens the Yemeni state, and ultimately brings an end to a war whose greatest burden continues to fall on ordinary Yemenis.

On a personal note, it was a pleasure reconnecting with Donna Kennedy-Glans (@dkennedyglans), who supported me during my years at the University of Calgary (@UCalgary). I'm grateful for her thoughtful National Post (@nationalpost) article on my journey, Yemen's conflict, and the challenges ahead, and for her enduring friendship.

Article was published in print copy, you can access it here through e-paper:

https://t.co/XzwCOhuxek

It's also available on the web version here:

https://t.co/9EOSI5A8rF

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

Has the war against the Houthis already been lost? Absolutely not. But let's not confuse refusing to concede defeat with having a strategy to win.

After more than a decade of war, billions spent, and a devastating human toll, Yemen cannot afford another round of failed strategies, political paralysis, and wishful thinking.

The Houthis have proven remarkably resilient militarily. But surviving a war is not the same as winning it, much less governing a country or securing lasting peace. Equally, the failures of their opponents do not make a Houthi victory inevitable.

The real question is no longer simply whether the Houthis can be defeated, but whether their opponents can overcome the divisions, weak leadership, and institutional failures that have repeatedly handed them the advantage.

Yemen's war is not lost. But it will not be won by repeating the very mistakes that brought us here.

I joined fellow Yemeni analysts @maysaashujaa and @shehrah_mahmoud in this timely @AmwajMedia debate to examine what went wrong, what remains possible, and where Yemen goes from here.

Read our perspectives:
https://t.co/L9h1p6TAzo

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthi attack on the Presidential Palace in Aden today, while Yemen’s prime minister and cabinet members were present, is a serious and troubling escalation. And it is not the first time the Houthis have targeted the country's political leadership. The 2020 attack on Aden airport, as the newly formed government arrived, remains a stark reminder of the risks facing Yemen's civilian leadership.

Whatever the intended target of today's attack, striking the seat of government carries serious political and security implications, particularly at such a critical juncture in the conflict.

Beyond the immediate danger to government officials, such attacks further undermine already fragile state institutions, deepen political divisions, and complicate prospects for a negotiated settlement.

Yemen has endured enough instability. Its political differences cannot continue to be settled through missiles and military force.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthis have crossed a dangerous new threshold in Yemen's war. By targeting the government's political leadership in Aden, they are escalating beyond the battlefield and striking at the very heart of the Yemeni state. This is not simply another military attack. It is a direct assault on the government's political leadership and an alarming signal of where the conflict may be heading.

The latest attack reflects a growing sense of impunity and a willingness to throw whatever remains of the rules of engagement out the window. That should alarm everyone.

And let's be clear about what this tells us of their political intentions. This is not a group interested in negotiating with its opponents, but one increasingly demonstrating that it would rather eliminate them altogether. The political message is clear: the Houthis are seeking to dictate Yemen's future through force, not compromise. Years of inadequate international responses, hollow condemnations, and a failure to impose meaningful consequences have only emboldened the Houthis, reinforcing their belief that they can escalate with impunity.

The attack also sends an unmistakable warning: Aden is now firmly in their crosshairs, and the Houthis may be preparing to push the conflict further south. Whether through direct military advances or increasingly destructive strikes, they appear determined to expand the battlefield and raise the stakes.

Anyone still assuming this escalation can be contained to existing front lines, or that the Houthis can be persuaded to moderate their behavior without meaningful consequences, is making a dangerous miscalculation.

I explain more to Erand on @trtworld here.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The battle for Taiz could become Yemen’s next humanitarian catastrophe, and the world is dangerously unprepared.

As the Houthis tighten their grip around the city, the stakes go far beyond another military victory or defeat. Taiz is home to millions who have already endured years of siege, shelling, hunger and displacement. A full-scale assault could uproot hundreds of thousands more, overwhelm an already collapsing humanitarian response, and leave countless civilians trapped in the crossfire.

But Taiz is not just another city on Yemen’s military map. It is the political and symbolic heart of resistance to Houthi rule, a city with a proud history of civic activism, political pluralism, and defiance against authoritarianism. For over a decade, its people have resisted Houthi attempts to subjugate them, often at an enormous human cost. Its fall would not merely redraw frontlines; it would strike a devastating blow to the republican cause, undermine confidence in the internationally recognized government, and hand the Houthis an enormous political and psychological victory.

There is also a bigger strategic picture. Losing Taiz would dramatically shift Yemen’s balance of power, embolden the Houthis, and potentially open the door to further advances southward. With Saudi Arabia already under attack and international shipping threatened, the conflict risks drawing regional and international powers into a much wider confrontation.

And let's be clear: Yemen simply cannot absorb another displacement crisis of this magnitude. Aid agencies are overstretched, funding is drying up, and millions are already struggling to survive. Hundreds of thousands could be forced to flee with nowhere safe to go.

My greatest fear is that we are once again measuring this war in territory gained and lost while ignoring what is really at stake: the lives of civilians, the survival of Yemen's republican institutions, and the possibility of a future beyond militia rule.

Taiz does not have to fall for a catastrophe to unfold. A prolonged siege alone could devastate its population. And if Taiz falls, the Houthis won't just have captured a city; they will have dealt a profound blow to one of the last major symbols of Yemen's resistance to their rule.

I explain to John @trtworld here.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthis have achieved something few insurgent movements ever manage: transforming battlefield survival into strategic relevance far beyond their actual military and economic weight. But their meteoric rise also exposes a dangerous paradox: the more militarily sophisticated they become, the less predictable and potentially more destructive the conflict becomes.

What concerns me is not simply their expanding missile and drone arsenal, but their growing ability to combine relatively inexpensive weapons, intelligence, and asymmetric tactics to overwhelm far costlier defense systems. They've effectively learned how to impose disproportionate costs on much stronger adversaries.

And this changes the calculus for Washington. Direct U.S. intervention might degrade Houthi capabilities, but it could also internationalize the conflict further, give the Houthis a larger confrontation to exploit politically, and create opportunities for other Iranian-aligned armed groups in Iraq and Lebanon to activate additional pressure points.

There's also an economic dimension we shouldn't underestimate. Oil markets don't need a complete shutdown of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab to panic. Sustained uncertainty, higher insurance premiums, and doubts about the reliability of alternative export routes can be enough to keep prices elevated.

Perhaps the most overlooked development is that the Houthis are no longer merely beneficiaries of Iran's regional strategy. They have become an increasingly consequential player within it, with their own calculations, ambitions, and capacity to influence the decisions of much larger powers.

The strategic question now is whether the Houthis' growing military reach is translating into lasting political power, or whether their escalating ambitions will ultimately expose the limits of what military coercion can achieve.

I explain here to Rosemary @CNN

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthis are taking the war beyond Yemen’s borders to, among many objectives, raise the cost for Saudi Arabia and pressure Riyadh into concessions that consolidate Houthi power.

But the real stakes are who governs Yemen, who controls its institutions and weapons, and on what terms. Any discussion of a Saudi-Houthi deal that sidesteps these questions risks turning a temporary de-escalation into a permanent imbalance of power—entrenching the very conditions for renewed conflict.

My comments to Xinhua in excellent article by @MuradAbdo22:

https://t.co/Lrm1l00e6U

[Anna Jacobs Khalaf @AnnaLeaJacobs]

But very interesting to note that the Saudi foreign ministry statements, and R4 statements, focus their attention solely on the Houthis and are trying to avoid making this about retaliating against Iran.

[Yemen News Observers @MurdockYemen]

@AJEnglish When is it time to eliminate the Iranian terrorist attacks through the huthis, Iraq Shia or Syrian Shia ! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthis have now renewed their attacks on Saudi airports, once again targeting civilian infrastructure. And once again, we need to get our framing of the Houthis right.

They are not a state actor, not an armed resistance movement, and certainly not a legitimate government. They are a radical, extremist militia that hijacked the Yemeni state by force and has behaved accordingly ever since.

Once you understand who they are and how they operate, their actions should hardly come as a surprise. Kidnapping, torturing and killing civilians, besieging entire cities, planting millions of landmines, forcibly recruiting children, disappearing humanitarian workers, sinking commercial ships, and bombing civilian airports are not isolated excesses. They are part of a consistent pattern of coercion, intimidation, and violence.

The Houthis have never needed much of a pretext to commit atrocities. What changes is the justification they offer, the enemy they invoke, and the political circumstances they exploit. What remains constant is their willingness to make civilians pay the price.

And this is precisely why treating the Houthis as just another political actor with legitimate grievances fundamentally misreads the problem. It rewards their use of violence as a negotiating tool and encourages the belief that escalating attacks will eventually translate into political concessions.

There is also a dangerous tendency to view Houthi aggression exclusively through the Saudi-Iranian rivalry or the wider regional confrontation. That framing overlooks the most important fact: Yemenis were the Houthis' first victims, and they continue to bear the heaviest burden of their rule.

The latest attacks on Saudi airports are not some sudden departure from Houthi behavior. They are a continuation of it, only with a wider target list.

The international community needs to stop treating every new Houthi escalation as an isolated crisis and start confronting the underlying problem. Geography may change, targets may change, and political slogans certainly change. But the nature of the militia, and the threat it poses to Yemen and beyond, does not.

I explain in latest interview on @AJEnglish here

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The United States has already signaled strong support for Saudi Arabia, and direct American military involvement is now being openly considered. But Washington has not announced a decision to join the strikes against the Houthis.

I would distinguish between three possible levels of American involvement:

1) Continued intelligence, targeting and defensive assistance: Consistent with Washington's existing approach.

2) Direct, limited strikes against Houthi missile and drone capabilities: Now a serious option given Trump's remarks and the American fatality.

3) A broader American military campaign alongside Saudi Arabia: A much bigger decision, particularly given the ongoing confrontation with Iran and the risk of regional escalation ahead of the midterm elections.

The American casualty is particularly consequential. The Houthis are no longer simply attacking Saudi infrastructure; their operations have now killed an American civilian, increasing pressure on Washington to respond.

The key question is whether Washington treats the airport attack as an isolated escalation or as part of a wider threat to American interests in the region.

If further attacks threaten American nationals or international shipping or global energy infrastructure, the arguments within Washington for direct intervention could strengthen considerably.

The next signals to watch are Trump's anticipated conversation with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, any Pentagon announcement of additional deployments, and whether the Houthis carry out further attacks.

I explain to Sami on @AJEnglish here

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The Houthis want to force a calculus where Riyadh is forced to choose between continuing its support for the Yemeni government’s military campaign, and protecting its own economic and civilian infrastructure.

Moreover, though the Houthis pulled the trigger, Tehran’s fingerprints are all over this escalation.

Saudi Arabia is effectively facing attacks from two interconnected threats: Iran and the Houthi militia it arms and supports. The Houthis may have operational autonomy, but it strains credibility to suggest Tehran had no knowledge of, or role in, an escalation of this magnitude.

For Washington and European capitals, the question is no longer whether the Houthis pose a serious threat, but how much further that threat will be allowed to grow. Years of treating Houthi escalation as a manageable regional problem have not produced lasting deterrence.

Ignoring the warning signs now risks allowing a threat that already extends across Yemen, the Arabian Peninsula, and vital international shipping lanes to spiral into a much wider crisis, with consequences for global security, trade, and economic stability.

I explain to Salma @CNN here

[Yemen News Observers @MurdockYemen]

اليمن : صنعاء " نداء للجيش الوطني الشرعي و التحالف العربي والدولي "

[د/ رشاد محمد العليمي @PresidentRashad]

On my behalf and behalf of my fellow PLC members, the government, and the Yemeni people, I extend our sincere condolences and solidarity to Saudi Arabia, its leadership, government, and people.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

The latest Houthi attack on Riyadh's airport is about more than hitting a civilian target. It's an attempt to raise the cost of Saudi support for Yemen's government, undermine confidence, and force political concessions.

But this is a dangerous gamble. What the Houthis see as leverage could backfire, triggering stronger Saudi retaliation and greater international pressure.

Negotiations remain possible, but another deal that merely freezes the conflict without addressing the question of Yemeni state authority will only postpone the next war.

And it would be a grave mistake for the international community to assume that only Yemenis and Saudis will pay the price. We've already seen what the Houthis can do to international shipping and global trade. Their threat extends well beyond Yemen's borders, and ignoring that reality won't make it disappear.

I explain to Luke and Lillia @abcnews here.

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

There is a real danger in allowing the regional dimensions of Yemen’s war to overshadow what is actually at stake inside the country.

Much of the international debate now revolves around Iranian influence, Saudi security, and the Houthis’ ability to threaten global shipping through Bab al-Mandab. All legitimate concerns. But they also risk turning Yemen into little more than a battlefield for competing regional interests, with Yemenis reduced to spectators in a war being fought over their own country.

The Houthis have been remarkably effective at exploiting this dynamic. By expanding the conflict beyond Yemen’s borders, they have made themselves a problem the world feels compelled to negotiate with, rather than a militia whose seizure of state institutions and coercive rule remain at the heart of Yemen’s tragedy. Every new regional crisis offers them another opportunity to seek concessions and political recognition without fundamentally changing how they govern.

And this is precisely where we need to distinguish between managing the Houthi threat and actually resolving Yemen’s conflict. The two are not necessarily the same.

For Yemenis, this is not primarily about shipping lanes, Saudi-Iranian rivalry, or the balance of power in the Middle East. It is first and foremost a Yemeni struggle to reclaim their state, end the Houthis’ oppressive rule, and restore the right of citizens to determine their own future.

That struggle also demands more from the internationally recognized government and its allies: greater unity, credible leadership, accountability, and a political vision that goes beyond battlefield victories. Opposing the Houthis is not, by itself, a substitute for demonstrating what a better Yemen would look like.

The real danger is that the international community becomes so preoccupied with containing the Houthis' regional threats that it ends up accommodating their domestic grip on power.

Yemen does not need another arrangement that makes the Houthis less dangerous to the outside world while leaving Yemenis at their mercy.

A bit of an extended but important discussion with Mahrukh Hameed @Mahrukh_Hameed on @PakistanTVcom

[Yemen News Observers @MurdockYemen]

@Ali_Albukhaiti @algassabinasser

[Hisham Al-Omeisy هشام العميسي @omeisy]

Yemen is facing an increasingly severe humanitarian aid shortage, and the coming weeks could prove catastrophic for millions already struggling with hunger, displacement, and the devastating consequences of more than a decade of war.

Aid supplies are dwindling, humanitarian operations are being scaled back, and renewed military escalation threatens to push even more families into desperate conditions.

Making matters worse, the Houthis have systematically obstructed humanitarian operations, driven aid organizations out of areas under their control, and continues to detain more than 70 UN personnel and humanitarian workers.

These are the very people risking their lives to deliver food, medicine, and lifesaving assistance to vulnerable Yemenis.

There is something profoundly cruel about a movement claiming to defend Yemenis while intimidating those trying to keep them alive.

With humanitarian needs rising and resources rapidly shrinking, Yemen is heading toward an even deeper catastrophe. The international community must act urgently to restore humanitarian access, secure the release of detained aid workers, and prevent millions of civilians from paying yet another devastating price for this war.

An excerpt from my participation on the @AJInsideStory panel discussing the worsening humanitarian conditions in Yemen.

Full episode here:

https://t.co/JyHyt2mI9E