Jason Joseph

Trying to improve the world as best as I can, or at the very least, help people understand it better. Engineer @ Macmillan Publishers.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@pitdesi @GeorgeMayer Underrated skill is knowing how to party 😂

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@OlgaBazova @PKurzin Ok I am willing to accept that as a reasonable critique. When I see someone say something on Twitter I take it literally which is not always reasonable which I think is fine.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@GatorCosmist @BrianMcDonaldIE Lol ok must not be very confident, I wouldn't be either.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

Ok so you're being pedantic then. He did say those words but they mean something else and thus it's "not what he said".

But let's pretend you're not arguing in bad faith. Why then would the illigitimate leader of Ukraine meet with the illigitimate leader of Russia who obviously does not run free and fair elections? At least Zelenskey at some point in the past was able to win an actual election, something it's unclear that Putin has ever been capable of 😂

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@GatorCosmist @BrianMcDonaldIE Would you bet on that, with actual money?

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

Let's start with the artificial state claim.

https://t.co/BWgzLuwDzt

Both in the Tucker interview and in the original 2021 letter he penned preceding the war he used this language.

I understand if you don't find the BBC to be a trustworthy news outlet but this is merely referencing the interview where he clearly states these words and the letter he wrote.

If you accept this as real then we can discuss the second claim about the legitimacy of the state of Ukraine.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@GatorCosmist @BrianMcDonaldIE You said June 2027. I'd bet you won't bet on that date.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@GatorCosmist @BrianMcDonaldIE It's only on track if you think they'll have everything you said they would have within a year (which I don't think you think). They don't have to give up but they might if it keeps going at this glacial pace.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@OlgaBazova @PKurzin He absolutely stated Ukraine is artifical and illigitimate, he stated it clearly on the outset of the 2022 invasion.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

A Darwin award is given posthumously to people who do stupid things that end their life not people who do things in their own self interest that don't kill them and at least in the present, seem to have them on the path of self betterment.

Armenia might suffer a Darwin award fate given its far less likelihood of survivor a Russian attack though, I'll give you that. Depends a lot on what western support they extract in the interim between now and when Russia gives up on its try and fail to takeover Ukraine plan 😂

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

You similarly are "stealthily" veering the discussion from what China is doing and why from how they came up with the idea. Whether they copied it or not is not really relevant to the point you are making about whether they planned for this (although it might matter to you and others for other reasons of say, optics).

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@YanLian31677392 @RushDoshi Irrelevant to intent and strategy but you do you. Pretty clear what your opinion is and why, have a good day.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

They won't run out but it also constrains the type of offensive actions they can do in the future and using other vehicles for logistics just makes them even more vulnerable to even smaller short and mid strike drone platforms.

Sucks to be in russia's position but I'm enjoying it 😂

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

Ok cool you have some personal and similarly irrelevant opinion about whether it's copying or not. All that matters is that we know China uses strategic asymmetric advantages in a weaponized way.

We know they plan decades in advance and have likely done so here knowing that whether they use it as a weapon or not it's not important because they benefit from it (resiliency, building domestic industry, etc) whether it's used or not but are most interested and willing to expend great cost over long time scales to have this optionality.

The fact that you are laser focused on whether they are copying America is just a silly smokescreen trying to hide that it seems extemely likely that China planned for this. Either that or you think they just lucked into it 😂

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@JMGregorchuk Of course not but it very obviously depresses housing mobility and I think by extention housing production and demand which I would have assumed you would be supportive of but I guess if you hold everything that makes sense, thanks for clarifying.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@JMGregorchuk Developers generally sell the stuff they develop no?

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

@evazodd2 @Sokilkyy Yup, exactly this.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

They are actively producing tanks and are expanding the ability to do so. They do not seem to have any issues with this (yet) and are only expending less because the nature of warfare (drones) has changed their efficacy.

I love that Ukraine destroyed 1000s of their soviet and modern era armor but they are not in any danger of running out and likely never will.

[Jason Joseph @Musicalmindz]

China does almost everything by state control, state direction, or at the very least tacit or explicit state approval. This can come in many forms, subsidization, preferential tax treatment, and this can happen via many vehicles, LGFVs, via SOEs or more discretely in other ways through private market participants who have CCP members sitting on advisory boards.

China has in many situations built up industries with the dual purpose for internal resilience but can also be used as a cudgel diplomatically when necessary. There's countless examples of this and I don't think it's controversial to say this.

China is extemely smart and strategic in the places they invest and they know ahead of time what will be an asymmetric advantage in any peer or sub peer conflict. They are extemely risk averse and want to be able to handle all adversarial situations with the least risk of blowback and with maximum leverage while preserving tactical geopolitical escalation dominance. If you think China didn't build up it's REE industry specifically to handle the exact situation Trump attempted then you either think China is extemely lucky or dumb. I think we both know that is not the case and again, this is just you being wilfully blind to their superior long term strategic thinking.

I'm happy to provide other examples, the REE one is just the most clear and obvious example of them applying leverage that they spent decades building up.

As for whether it was modeled on the US playbook I don't think it particularly matters. That is not to say the US is blameless and doesn't do nefarious geopolitical things but when China sees a good strategy it will obviously try and copy and improve upon it. Again, to imagine otherwise would be silly given how intelligent and the long term strategic thinking we know the CCP does.