FED BALANCE SHEET CONTRACTS 🚨
$12B in mortgage-backed securities just matured over the past 2 weeks.
Treasury buybacks are accelerating.
Stay patient. Liquidity is coming!
This week, I convened the inaugural meeting of Treasury’s Payment Fraud and Scams Working Group in collaboration with @BrendanCarrFCC, @FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson, and @federalreserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
Treasury is leading a comprehensive effort to combat these crimes by bringing together leaders across the financial services, telecommunications, and technology industries, and using every tool at our collective disposal to expose scammers, disrupt their networks, protect consumers, and hold criminals accountable.
The AI trade is diverging sharply:
The 30-day correlation between the largest US CapEx spenders and the semiconductor index, $SOX, is down to almost zero, near the lowest in at least 4.5 years.
This marks a sharp decline from the +0.78 positive correlation seen in April.
By comparison, the average correlation coefficient has been +0.60 since the start of 2022.
The divergence comes as semiconductor stocks have rallied while the largest AI infrastructure spenders have declined, and vice versa, since the beginning of June.
This tells us that investors are no longer treating AI infrastructure builders and chipmakers as one trade, as chipmakers benefit from AI demand while hyperscalers face questions over whether massive spending will generate sufficient returns.
The next phase of the AI trade will be defined by profitability, not investment.
$BTC - Macro Update
I have mentioned the $53,000 level for awhile now, which i want to see tested. Basically any larger dip we see from here i will start to ladder up on
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 U.S. Senator Lummis says President Trump has voluntarily agreed to ethics rules, which were the biggest roadblock for the Clarity Act.
“Get the Clarity Act passed NOW”
JUST IN: Bulls are betting $3.4 billion on Bitcoin +11% by next Friday.
Heavy BTC call (buy) options open interest at $70,000 and $72,000 expiring July 31.
— Laevitas data
JUST IN: Samsung reveals plans to bring native stablecoin support, the first in smartphone giants.
Samsung says its Samsung Wallet will support new forms of digital value, including stablecoins, claiming the move will make it "one of the first major mobile brands" to do so.
The company also reportedly demonstrated a $USDC interface with send, receive and top-up functions, although no issuer partner was announced.
Samsung, the world’s largest smartphone maker, has more than 1 BILLION active devices worldwide.
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BREAKING 💥
Japan's core inflation came in at 1.6% in June, matching expectations.
Inflation has now stayed below the BOJ's 2% target for the fifth consecutive month.