MyCryptoSphere @MyCryptoSphere - Twitter Profile

2 days ago

Near-term BTC price action is going to be heavily dependent on one thing: Did Saylor sell enough BTC this past week? If he sold zero, that’d be a massive mistake on his end and we’re probably cooked. If he sold $1B of BTC, that helps, but realistically I don’t think it’s enough and we probably continue lower. If he sold at least $2B, that’s where it gets interesting and sets up a bounce. The more he sold, the harder we bounce. My base case is that he sold at least $2B. I also think there’s a decent chance BTC bottoms into Monday if the market starts pricing in that he sold some. Rationale: Selling none is my lowest probability scenario. He needs the money. He already did that weird 32 BTC “test” sale and I have a hard time understanding the purpose of it. If he was planning on selling more, all the test did was give him worse execution. If he wasn't planning on selling more, then he nuked the market for no reason. The latter seems completely ridiculous, so my guess is it was indeed a test and he was planning on selling more. A tiny sale ($500m) is the worst of both worlds. It damages the “never sell” narrative without solving the liquidity problem. If you’re going to sell, sell enough to matter. That’s the key here. A material sale does two things at once. It adds real cash runway, but it also sends an important signal to STRC buyers: he is willing to sell meaningful amounts of BTC to keep funding the dividend. That signal matters a lot. Strategy has roughly $871M left in its USD reserve. Against the current preferred + debt cash burden, that’s only about 6 months of runway. If he sold $1B, that takes runway from ~6 months to ~13 months. Helpful, but probably not enough. 13 months is enough to reduce near-term stress, but not enough to make STRC feel like a self-sustaining issuance product again. STRC buyers are still underwriting a shrinking cash cushion and hoping the market rallies materially within that window. I think it becomes very hard for STRC to get back to 100 in that scenario. If he sold $2B, that takes the reserve to ~$2.9B and extends runway to roughly 20 months. That is a very different setup. At ~20 months of coverage, blow-up risk gets pushed much further out, STRC buyers can believe the dividend is properly covered by cash on hand, and the product has a real chance of trading back to 100. It also changes how STRC buyers think about the balance sheet. They’re not just relying on new issuance to get paid. They’re backed by a massive BTC treasury that Saylor has now shown he is willing to selectively monetize to support the credit stack. Once STRC is back at 100, the flywheel can restart. This is the “sell to buy” point. A large BTC sale does not just create cash runway. It can increase his ability to issue STRC, which then gives him the ability to buy more BTC than he sold. So the hierarchy is simple: Selling zero is the disaster scenario. Selling too little helps, but probably does not fix the flywheel. Selling enough to matter is what gives STRC a path back to 100 and gives BTC a reason to bounce.

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