We don't pick sides, we track WINNING data models - fully tracked in public - every lean graded, losers included, sportsbooks/predictions markets live odds.
Yesterday — smart leans 1–1, -0.52u · the daily card 2–1, +0.59u
Smart leans, every graded lean:
❌ Venezia +108 → -1.00u · steam move + 3.8% edge
✅ Philadelphia Phillies −210 → +0.48u · steam move + 2.6% edge
One unit on every lean, settled results only. Heavy favourites at −300 or shorter never count toward the record — they win often and you cannot get real money down on them.
The daily card: 2–1, +0.59u across 3 graded plays.
The daily card is our bench — separate system, graded its own way: at the line we announced, and again at the worst price showing on the board.
Two separate systems, two separate records, never added together. Every graded result prints, win or lose.
30d — smart leans: 71–54, +6.39u
This week — smart leans: 22–12, +5.23u
30d — the daily card: 61–59, -0.99u · worst price on the board -5.06u
Would you have passed on either of these at those prices?
Yesterday — smart leans 6–2, +2.21u
Smart leans, every graded lean:
✅ Brentford +123 → +1.23u · steam move + 3.1% edge
✅ Real Madrid −228 → +0.44u · steam move + 3.3% edge
✅ Dakota Bush −210 → +0.48u · steam move + 5.9% edge
✅ Gadzhi Rabadanov −4500 → +0.02u · steam move + 6.2% edge · not counted, heavy favourite
✅ Philadelphia Phillies −145 → +0.69u · steam move + 2.5% edge
❌ Inter Miami CF −302 → -1.00u · steam move + 4.2% edge · not counted, heavy favourite
✅ Orlando City SC −106 → +0.94u · steam move + 7.2% edge
❌ Makkasharip Zaynukov −180 → -1.00u · steam move + 6.7% edge
✅ Eoin Sheridan −900 → +0.11u · steam move + 4.3% edge · not counted, heavy favourite
❌ Minnesota Twins +126 → -1.00u · steam move + 2.8% edge
✅ Vancouver Whitecaps FC −230 → +0.43u · steam move + 4.3% edge
One unit on every lean, settled results only. Heavy favourites at −300 or shorter never count toward the record — they win often and you cannot get real money down on them; 3 are printed above, uncounted.
The daily card: nothing graded.
The daily card is our bench — separate system, graded its own way: at the line we announced, and again at the worst price showing on the board.
Two separate systems, two separate records, never added together. Every graded result prints, win or lose.
30d — smart leans: 71–57, +3.25u
This week — smart leans: 21–11, +5.75u
30d — the daily card: 61–58, +0.42u · worst price on the board -3.64u
Which model on the board do you trust most right now?
Yesterday — smart leans 3–2, +0.06u
Smart leans, every graded lean:
✅ Philadelphia Phillies −247 → +0.41u · steam move + 4.0% edge
❌ Toronto Blue Jays +183 → -1.00u · steam move + 4.2% edge
❌ New York Mets +116 → -1.00u · steam move + 2.8% edge
✅ Kansas City Royals −104 → +0.96u · steam move + 3.0% edge
✅ San Diego Padres −145 → +0.69u · steam move + 2.7% edge
One unit on every lean, settled results only. Heavy favourites at −300 or shorter never count toward the record — they win often and you cannot get real money down on them.
The daily card: nothing graded.
The daily card is our bench — separate system, graded its own way: at the line we announced, and again at the worst price showing on the board.
Two separate systems, two separate records, never added together. Every graded result prints, win or lose.
30d — smart leans: 65–55, +1.04u
This week — smart leans: 15–9, +3.54u
30d — the daily card: 61–58, +0.42u · worst price on the board -3.64u
Anything on this card surprise you?
Our lean yesterday lost.
Baltimore Orioles −103. By first pitch the market had moved 2.2 points toward that side across five books.
Early on the number, wrong on the game. Both are true.
105 of our last 116 MLB leans beat the closing line.
Yesterday's card — 0–2, -2.00u
❌ ATL ML vs MIN -136 FanDuel → -1.00u
❌ WSH ML vs TEX +132 BetRivers → -1.00u
Lines as announced, books named.
30d: 60–53, +4.25u · worst price on the board +0.31u
Would you have passed on either of these at those prices?
Saints RB Alvin Kamara expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL.
Went down in Tuesday’s joint practice vs. Dallas. Initial tests confirmed he avoided a season-ending injury.
Depth notes:
• Travis Etienne signed (4-yr, $12M/yr)
• Kendre Miller (back) + Devin Neal (hamstring) both participated in the scrimmage
• HC Kellen Moore still plans a deep committee
Kamara (31) had a career-low 471 rush / 186 receiving yards in 2025. Franchise all-time leader: 7,250 rushing yards and 61 TDs in 126 games.
Season starts Sept. 13 at Detroit.