Kilmeade on Iran: I don't think that Witkoff and Kushner should be the ones doing this. They're business guys. They have not been effective in Ukraine, not been effective in Gaza. They have not been effective in this. We have a State Department for a reason.
I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. What they fail to see is how much better off they'd be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by doing things that will give you more information). The expected value gain from raising the probability of being right from 51 percent to 85 percent (i.e., by 34 percentage points) is seventeen times more than raising the odds of being right from 49 percent (which is probably wrong) to 51 percent (which is only a little more likely to be right). Think of the probability as a measure of how often you're likely to be wrong. Raising the probability of being right by 34 percentage points means that a third of your bets will switch from losses to wins. That's why it pays to stress-test your thinking, even when you're pretty sure you're right.
#principleoftheday
Consider this your invitation to board the Black Pearl.
Twenty-three years ago today, audiences first set sail with PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL (2003). Starring Johnny Depp, Geoffrey Rush, Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, the film went on to earn five nominations at the 76th Oscars.
No rehearsals. No warm-ups. Just pure talent.
At 74 years old, the voice is still absolutely breathtaking. ❤️🎶
Music might just be the closest thing we have to a time machine.
“We did one game that was filmed with a static camera, another where the camera was constantly moving around the table, then we did one where the camera starts far back and slowly closes in on Bond and Le Chiffre.” – Phil Méheux, director of photography.
Bond (Daniel Craig) and Le Chiffre (Mads Mikkelsen) raise the stakes and the tension at the poker table in CASINO ROYALE.