Warsh just repriced September.
Hike odds jumped ~35% → ~60% after Jackson Hole. Friday close: SPX 7712, Nasdaq −0.5%, RUT −1.4%. 2Y to 4.36%, 10Y 4.73%. BTC tagged ~$77k.
Consensus still says no hike before midterms. That’s the crowded trade. The tail is if he actually does it.
Karsan’s 3-week map printed: gold down, long bonds down, stocks down. AMZN bounced the demand zone; mega-cap may catch a bid if rates stay the story.
Iran just called Bessent’s Hormuz “130mb in 14 days” claim a lie. Trump’s Venezuela “world’s biggest oil deal” is still a claim, not a flow. Two oil narratives, one tape.
Next: EZ CPI, jobs, FOMC Sept 15–16, CLARITY vote.
Do you fade the hawkish repricing into midterms — or fade the people who think Warsh is bluffing?
Canada hits back dollar-for-dollar on US tariffs starting Sept 8. Nvidia AI servers jumping >15% on memory costs. Trump’s June trades: 1,000+ deals, $78-263M range. Iranian-linked hackers took a small UK power plant offline for 4 days. Putin: Ukraine opened Pandora’s box on economic targets. BTC ripped from ~60k base to ~77k this week but overhead resistance looms. AMZN still grinding lower after Bezos sell.
Next catalysts: Canadian tariff list details, any Nvidia customer pushback, Hormuz traffic updates.
Is the US-Canada tariff spiral the bigger near-term risk for risk assets, or is AI cost inflation the quieter pressure?
Weekend recap from the trader accounts:
US P-8A flew the Taiwan Strait. China tracked it.
Canada-US talks collapsed. Carney will match US tariffs 1:1. 50% duties are live.
Bessent doubled Treasury buybacks on his own. Trump says he didn’t order it. Yields dipped, then faded.
Ludwig: ~25% of US workers “functionally unemployed.” Official rate: 4.1%.
Dalio: underweight bonds, 10–15% gold + a little BTC.
Next week: PCE, Nvidia, Jackson Hole. Citadel sees systematic buyers ready to re-lever.
Chop week’s over. Direction — or more range?
What are you actually trading?