Nail Markets

Build your strategy. Improve your edge. Deploy real capital.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Welcome to Nail Markets.

We’re a futures funded trader platform.

Clear three phases, simulated on live CME quotes, and you go live on a real brokerage account. Real CME futures. Orders routed to the exchange.

The rules are published before you pay, and they are not changed retroactively:

• The drawdown is what it says
• The consistency rule applies in phase one and does not follow you past it
• You get paid at every phase, not only at the end

What is true on the day you buy is true on the day it is enforced.

That is all it is. A rulebook that holds still, and real trading on the other side of it.

More as we get closer to launch.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

$NQ_F ticked higher after the close, near 29,340 against a prior close of 29,277, following @nvidia's earnings.

The report was the week's most watched single event for the index. With AI capex now a driver of the long end of the Treasury curve, a chip result of this size reads as a rates input as much as an equity one.

That sets up Friday, when Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole three weeks before the September FOMC.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

July core PCE is out, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

• Core PCE to 0.2% on the month, from 0.1%
• Core PCE at 3.3% over the year, in line with forecast and unchanged from June

Core landed where expected and held at 3.3%, the last major inflation read before Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

July core PCE is out, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

• Core PCE to 0.2% on the month, from 0.1%
• Core PCE at 3.3% over the year, in line with forecast and unchanged from June

Core landed where expected and held at 3.3%, the last major inflation read before Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

$CL_F pulled back about 2% on the day to near $85, from a prior close of $87.

The move comes after two straight weekly gains of more than 5%.

Strait of Hormuz supply risk is still in the frame, so this reads as a pullback from elevated levels rather than a change in the supply picture.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

The week on the desk, August 24 to 28.

• Tuesday: CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales
• Wednesday: core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Consensus 0.2% on the month, annual core at 3.3%. GDP second estimate and durable goods land the same morning.
• Wednesday: Nvidia earnings after the close. With AI debt issuance now driving the long end of the Treasury curve, this reads as a rates event as much as a tech one.
• Thursday to Saturday: Jackson Hole. Chair Warsh speaks Friday, three weeks before the September FOMC.

$ES_F, $NQ_F and $ZN_F carry the week.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Trust isn't something you're told.

It's something you can read before you owe anyone anything.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

August flash PMIs are out.

• Services jumped to 56.8 against 53.9 expected, from 54.6
• Manufacturing eased to 53.2 against 54.0 expected, from 53.9
• Both stayed in expansion, above 50

Services accelerated while manufacturing softened, the two sides of the private economy splitting in August.

This lands alongside yesterday's Philadelphia Fed jump and firm jobless claims, a run of data pointing to resilient activity into the week's close.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Philadelphia Fed just printed its highest reading in more than a decade.

• Index at 47.4 against 25 expected, up from 41.4
• Within it, new orders and shipments eased but stayed elevated, and prices paid fell 13 points to 40.9
• Initial jobless claims fell to 206K, from 212K

Manufacturing is firm and claims are low. The July payrolls drop said the opposite, and the 10-year yield moved up on the day.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Source: Federal Reserve, https://t.co/cXKvNhbVqs

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

FOMC minutes are out today, from the July meeting.

• Held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9 to 3 vote
• Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented, each favoring a 25bp hike
• Many participants saw tightening as likely if inflation did not decline
• Some judged financial conditions not yet restrictive enough to reach 2%
• Various participants tied tighter conditions to strong growth and expectations of a more restrictive Fed

The minutes describe a hawkish room.

They also predate the July payrolls drop, the in-line CPI and PPI, and the retail sales miss, all of which landed after the meeting.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

EIA crude inventories are out.

• Built 4.405M barrels against an expected 0.200M
• Third straight weekly build, after 17.4M and 2.5M
• $CL_F near $85, $BZ_F near $91

Three weeks of inventory builds against a crude price that has held higher through the same stretch.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Real capital, real exchanges, and rules that never change on you.

This is Nail Markets.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

$NQ_F is down about 1.5% on the session, near 29,640 against a prior close of 30,096.

Over the same stretch, Brent crude traded near $90 and long-end Treasury yields moved higher. Equity index, energy and rates are repricing together this week.

Ahead of Wednesday's July Fed minutes.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

The week ahead in US data.

• Wednesday: EIA crude inventories 10:30, July FOMC minutes 14:00
• Thursday: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, initial jobless claims
• Friday: S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI, preliminary

Last week closed with retail sales down 0.6% and consumer sentiment at 51.0, both softer than expected.

The Fed minutes land into that on Wednesday, two weeks ahead of Jackson Hole.

$ES_F, $NQ_F and $ZN_F carry last week's move into the week.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, preliminary August release. https://t.co/V5AwMpqN5C

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary August:

• Index 51.0 against 54.5 expected, from 55.2 in July
• Expectations fell more than current conditions
• Year-ahead inflation expectation 4.3%, five-year at 3.3%

The second consumer read of the day, after retail sales fell 0.6% this morning. Spending and sentiment softened in the same session, two weeks out from Jackson Hole.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

July retail sales are out.

• Headline down 0.6% on the month against an expected 0.1% rise
• Motor vehicles down 1.8%, nonstore retail down 2.2%
• Still up 5.0% over the year, from 6.7% in June

This closes a week of three consumer and inflation prints: CPI and PPI both soft, and now the first monthly drop in retail sales against an expected gain.

The read shifts from cooling inflation to cooling demand, which are two different things for the rate path.

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

July PPI is out.

• Headline flat on the month against an expected 0.2% rise
• Core up 0.2%, against an expected 0.3%
• Annual headline 4.7%, from 5.5%
• Initial jobless claims 209K against 202K expected

Two inflation prints below expectations in two days, CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday, with the annual PPI rate stepping down about a point.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

A trailing drawdown that updates in real time can stop you out on a high you already gave back. Ours updates once, at the close.

It is 6%, trailing, the same on every account size. Your open P&L during the session does not move it.

A number you print and give back before the day ends does not move it.

It trails the balance you finished with, not the best tick you touched getting there.

That is the whole drawdown rule. It was published before you paid, and it reads the same today as it did then.

[Nail Markets @NAILmarkets]

EIA crude inventories, latest week:

• Built 17.4M barrels against an expected 1.7M draw
• Prior week built 2.5M
• $CL_F near $83, up about 9% on the week

A build that size with price up 9% on the week. The front month is being set by more than the weekly stock figure right now.