FD 3x2 Analysis

Data scientist specializing in projecting 3x2 probabilities in NBA games || 2022-'23: 46-56, +14.0u || 2021-'22: 116-84, +103.2u

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@youkillmyfather DK happy hour

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

3x2 boost is 🔥 as others have noted

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Where is it 😥

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@ESPNBet @ESPNBetSupport How can you even rationalize putting these lines up? 70% hold. Utterly embarrassing. Just stealing from ignorant people. Take the market down if you don't know how to price it.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@ESPNBet @ESPNBetSupport How can you even rationalize putting these lines up? 70% hold. Utterly embarrassing. Just stealing from ignorant people. Take the market down if you don't know how to price it.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Update: it slowed down

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

this hasn't slowed down at all. We finished Feb at 58.6% and March is at 62.2% so far

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@badnewsbales34 nope, this market hasn't been very interesting until the last couple months as FD got much sharper

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

this hasn't slowed down at all. We finished Feb at 58.6% and March is at 62.2% so far

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Is Joel Embiid a system center?

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

This graph shows 3PT% in the first 3:00 of games relative to overall 3PT% since the start of 2022-23.

Color indicates relative aggressiveness.

The majority of players lie above the line; they are more efficient at the start of games.

Maybe Steph needs a better warm-up routine.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Draymond Green makes 3s at a higher rate in the first 3:00 of games than Steph Curry.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

This graph shows 3PM/min in the first 3:00 of games relative to overall 3PM/min since the start of 2022-23.

The horizontal line represents the breakeven point: if every player made 3s at this rate, 3x2s would hit 50% of the time.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

The color of the dots represent how relatively aggressive the player is when it comes to shooting 3s. Red means they shoot more 3s in first 3:00, blue means they shoot less.

Players both shoot more 3s and make them at a higher rate in the first 3:00 of games (38.5% vs. 36.3%)

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

the data on the left side of the graph in my tweet last month is actually the '21-'22 season. Sorry about that.

This graph shows the data for '22-'23. The right side is unchanged

Last year did not see the same drop-off in shooting in February that occurred in '21-'22.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Some low hit rates in Feb 23 and Oct 23.

Anecdotally, it has seemed that players were a bit rusty at the start of the year, and the weeks around the All-Star Break do seem to have some questionable effort at times. Will be interested to see if that repeats this Feb

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@ThePromoguy123 @PlusBoosts For transparency two games were missing from the data I had (he’s played 37) and I didn’t have time to track them down, but the takeaway holds regardless

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

@badnewsbales34 I don't have the '21-22 data handy at the moment, but I may check later.

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

***1+ (3x1): 81.2% (-432) 🙄

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Some low hit rates in Feb 23 and Oct 23.

Anecdotally, it has seemed that players were a bit rusty at the start of the year, and the weeks around the All-Star Break do seem to have some questionable effort at times. Will be interested to see if that repeats this Feb

[FD 3x2 Analysis @NBA3x2]

Hit rate for each number of 3s in the first 3:00 of NBA games since the start of 2022-23:

0: 18.8%
1: 33.9%
2: 27.0%
3: 14.2%
4: 4.6%
5: 1.2%
6: 0.2%

1+ (3x1): 82.2% (-462)
2+ (3x2): 47.3% (+111)
3+ (3x3): 20.3% (+393)