NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center

Welcome to the National Crash Service. Forecasting crash potential during racing events. Run by @JlukeJohn.
Outlooks are issued from Friday through Sunday.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

https://t.co/tGigyFt4UM

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

2:04am EDT SCPC Day 1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: across portions of Michigan International Speedway
#NASCAR #DQS250

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

@matt_h_297 If I ever move to Michigan, that'll change.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

06:01 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 06:11 PM

AT 06:01 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
A DESTRUCTIVE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE BACKSTRETCH
HAZARD... DESTRUCTIVE 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. CARS WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. CARS COULD LEAK CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF OIL AND FUEL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE FIRES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BACKSTRETCH

SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE

#ARCA #HenryFordHealth200

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

06:00 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 06:10 PM

AT 06:00 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
A DESTRUCTIVE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2
HAZARD... DESTRUCTIVE 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. CARS WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. CARS COULD LEAK CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF OIL AND FUEL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE FIRES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2

SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE

#ARCA #HenryFordHealth200

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

RACE DISCUSSION #351 - MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

RACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 351
NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA
507 PM FRIDAY JUNE 05 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...
MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

CONCERNING... SEVERE CRASH POTENTIAL

VALID 500 PM - 700 PM

WATCH PROBABILITY...
5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE CARS TO LOOSE HANDLING AT TIMES.

DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SEVERE CRASHES ARE LIKELY, BUT BIG ONE POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DUE TO RAPID SEPARATION BETWEEN CARS DUE TO EQUIPMENT DISPARITY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A 5+ CAR CRASH ON A RESTART, BUT THAT'S NOT A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE...
SEVERE CRASHES POSSIBLE.
MULTI-CAR CRASHES POSSIBLE.
A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

06/05/2026

#ARCA #HenryFordHealth200

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

1:00pm EDT SCPC Day 1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: across portions of Michigan International Speedway
#ARCA #HenryFordHealth200

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

@tasbridge Update: Make that 8 out of 10.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Since the season is over, ask me anything.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Been making a lot of upgrades to the software this week.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

How it started/How it's going.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

@kyle_brokaw This is just an example graphic for demonstrating how the colors look. Not an actual forecast.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Updated the colorization of the Outlook risk areas. The categorical outlook legend on the bottom will be fixed next race so it's not so small. The chevron shapes are now officially phased out.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

11:26 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 11:36 PM

AT 11:26 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A DESTRUCTIVE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE FRONTSTRETCH
HAZARD... DESTRUCTIVE 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. CARS WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. CARS COULD LEAK CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF OIL AND FUEL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE FIRES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRONTSTRETCH, PIT ROAD

SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE

#NASCAR #NASCAROnPrime #CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Big One Watch #186 has been extended until 11:30PM CDT.
#NASCAR
#NASCAROnPrime
#CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Big One Watch #186 has been extended until 11:15PM CDT.
#NASCAR
#NASCAROnPrime
#CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

11:12 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 11:17 PM

AT 11:12 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 3-4
HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 3, TURN 4

#NASCAR #NASCAROnPrime #CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

@tasbridge Good thing that only happens 6 times a year, at most.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Big One Watch #186 has been extended until 11:15PM CDT.
#NASCAR
#NASCAROnPrime
#CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BIG ONE WATCH NUMBER 186
NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA
07:30 PM CDT SUNDAY MAY 31 2026

THE NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* BIG ONE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY FROM 07:30 PM UNTIL 10:30 PM.

* PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE...

SEVERE CRASHES AND SOME SIGNIFICANT MULTI-CAR CRASHES INCLUDING UP TO 10 CARS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A BIG ONE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE CRASHES INCLUDING BIG ONES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE CRASHES MAY NOT BE IMMINENT, PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING RACING CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS

&&

#NASCAR
#CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

10:28 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 10:33 PM

AT 10:28 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE FRONTSTRETCH
HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRONTSTRETCH, PIT ROAD

A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:30 PM FOR NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY

#NASCAR #NASCAROnPrime #CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE CRASH WARNING
NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA

10:17 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026

THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . .
NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY
* UNTIL 10:22 PM

AT 10:17 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2
HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH.
SOURCE... OBSERVED
IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2

A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:30 PM FOR NASHVILLE SUPERSPEEDWAY

SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

#NASCAR #NASCAROnPrime #CrackerBarrel400

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

@Wonderful_Chip The confidence in there being significant crashes on the backstretch is too low for me to feel comfortable going higher than a normal 15%.

[NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center @NCS_SCPC]

Day 1 Severe Crash Outlook 02:15z update
#NASCAR
#NASCAROnPrime
#CrackerBarrel400