NDK

High Risk Alternative Asset Manager

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@EquitybyNelson Smith tipped this play by switching his lead foot for his stance. CB picked up on it.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

If Thomas lost $75K trading options nobody would give a shit. But because it was on sports it’s bad.

[Bobby Allyn @BobbyAllyn]

Meet Thomas, a 35-year-old who got hooked to FanDuel and DraftKings in the pandemic, ended up $50,000 in the red. He filed for bankruptcy and signed up for a Pennsylvania registry that banned him from using betting apps.

More recently, he saw an ad for Kalshi offering a cash bonus. He got the app and couldn’t put it down. He’s now living with his mom and grandmother and taking loans from them to afford food and car insurance payments. “I have a gambling addiction” he wrote to Kalshi, begging for them to ban him, which they eventually did. But not before he was more than $25,000 in the hole.

Thomas represents dark side of the prediction market boom: Problem gamblers who relapse with Kalshi, which has blanketed TV, social media, sports stadiums, bus stations, trains, with ads trying to attract new traders, just as they insist they are not a gambling operator. That means they don’t honor “self-exclusion” registries maintained by states like Pennsylvania. Mental health clinicians say that creates a loophole for people like Thomas.

What really got Thomas were Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto markets, where you can make a binary trade on whether Bitcoin will be above or below a certain number every 15 minutes. There were times he was betting 18 hours a day in these markets.

He told me: “The odds flip so quickly. It’s such a rush. And when I’d lose, my brain just kept wanting to win it back. I never even traded Bitcoin or any crypto, but I just kept coming back to the rush of how unpredictable the markets were.”

A clinician I spoke to called 15-minute crypto markets “a slot machine in your pocket”

https://t.co/LCR7Y0XQkO

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@rjmanalytics He’s also the only Chevrolet in the top 10 in points. Considering how correlated manufacturers are especially in the next gen era, I think it’s extremely impressive what the 5 team is doing.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@Hendrick5Team @kansasspeedway WOW. What a drive.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@iamazfer @DustinGouker Why wouldn’t they? If they’re running a business and it means making more money or having less variance in revenue/earnings it would be worth it.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@themoviedadsc Not how the math works on this. Try to understand reality before talking on a subject you clearly don’t understand.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@mseprops @tyliebets Losers are not profitable.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@AGCHanaway I’m confused by this statement. None of those platforms offer sports wagering. Those companies are all financial instruments allowing users to trade event contracts amongst peers.

These markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, not the Missouri attorney general.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@XScore38 @trevbot07 @AGCHanaway Prediction markets aren’t gambling sites. They’re financial instruments allowing users to trade derivative markets in a safe environment regulated by the CFTC.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@TeamHendrick @KyleLarsonRacin @HendrickCars @Hendrick5Team Love the “Viz-It” play on the original “Cheez-It” spot. Very creative.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

Does the AGA really think they’ll get people to turn on PMs with a ‘well if you use PMs the government will get less money’ approach?

[American Gaming Association @AmericanGaming]

.@Kalshi tells @CNBC they are seeing a 1,400% jump in NFL sports betting. Not a single penny of that will go to pay state gaming taxes to fund critical community projects like education, infrastructure, or problem gambling services.

@contessabrewer

[SigmaSquirrel @SquirrelSigma]

It's a legitimate question. To the customer, the probability of profit trading ODTE options is worse than betting Team A Yes at 52.4%/-110

It's only called gambling if the Gaming lobby cares about it? 0DTE options, perps, meme coins - all good in Utah?

On a risk-adjusted basis, taking sports positions is NOWHERE near the top of the list of financial products where retail can lose their a$$.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@DustinGouker Will Utah also be banning 0 DTE options? Or do they get to pick and choose what’s ‘gambling’ and what’s ‘trading’?

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@MikeR_RAS Limit orders exist.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@uktorv He put together a T5 roster in the nation only to be screwed over by the SEC’s new rules. Not much you can do about it.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@HawkguyMatt For what? Getting insurance on a coaches bonus? Been happening for years.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@BeatinTheBookie Been happening forever through insurance companies. Nothing new except they want you to think it’s about gambling.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

@darrenrovell Has happened for a long time through insurance companies. Nothing new other than people using it for clickbait.

[NDK @NDK_Predicts]

It’s funny to see people get upset about things that have historically happened through insurance companies because they’re brainwashed into ‘Kalshi Bad’.

PMs 100% offer a better price than the insurance companies would have. Which is good for consumers.

[Hersh @JHershey21]

Yep games officially cooked. Burn the whole thing to the ground