Niall Ferguson

International man of history, Flying Scotsman. Author, @HooverInst senior fellow, @TheFP and @thetimes columnist. Opinions my own.

[Hoover Institution @HooverInst]

In a special "mailbag" episode, prefaced by a quick look at the US-Iran standoff, the GoodFellows (@NFergus, @LTGHRMcMaster, @JohnHCochrane) and moderator @BillWhalenCA answer audience questions.

They discuss great leadership (or a lack thereof) in the modern age, the health of European institutions (Reform UK and the EU), why once-overheated climate rhetoric has cooled off, the gentleman-scholar's guide to dressing, and life lessons gleaned from soccer and rugby pitches.

Watch the full conversation on X:

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

The even bigger, fatter version for the @HooverInst Applied History Working Group is here: https://t.co/Sa1eK3pII3 10/10

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

The unfolding history of artificial intelligence has now arrived at what may be its most dangerous moment. There are two barely controlled AI races, one between around five American companies—@Anthropic, @GoogleDeepMind, @Meta, @OpenAI, and @xai lead the field—and the other between the two geopolitical superpowers: the United States and China, with its own competing companies. The leadership of the competitors in this race is, to say the least, of mixed quality. 1/10

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

My big, fat AI essay for @TheFP is here: https://t.co/zIk6s5TJJO 9/10

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

And here is the longer, more detailed version of the argument, published as a @HooverInst History Working Paper: https://t.co/Sa1eK3pII3

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

The grave dangers of the AI arms race: https://t.co/ELJZbe0C77

[University of Austin (UATX) @uaustinorg]

This spring, students studied crown, cathedral, and crusade: the making of European culture through the fifteenth century.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

I agree.

[Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum]

Truly morally sickening: that anyone should wish all of Ukraine to suffer the fate of Mariupol or Bucha. Russian occupation of Ukraine means random arrests, executions, concentration camps; the destruction of language and culture; mass kidnapping of children. All of these things have been documented in the occupied territories and continue to go on.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

Must-read by @KonstantinKisin:
https://t.co/4XMMNuYlLt

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

"You are not likely to see Henry Nowak’s words stenciled on a mural. No corporation will change its logo. The same establishment that made a few words immortal when spoken by a black man in Minneapolis has met the same words, spoken by a white boy dying on a British street, with what can only be described as a determined, institutional silence. That silence is not neutral. It is a statement. It tells you exactly whose suffering the system has decided counts, and whose does not."

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

"The system taught [the police], in effect, that an allegation of racism is a trump card that overrides normal investigative procedure, normal medical common sense, and normal human judgement. That system was built with the best of intentions, by people who genuinely wanted to address real injustices. And it has produced a policing culture in which a killer can stab a teenager five times, claim to be the victim of racism, and the police won’t ask questions, until it’s too late."

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

I'm excited to be one of the judges for the Youth Liberty Prize. The top award is €100,000 for the best essay on the topic: “When the state writes the code: How does digital interventionism impact the prospect of liberty?” You need to be under 25 and familiar with Austrian School! https://t.co/oO2Q1PsiWp

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

My latest essay for @TheFP: https://t.co/QKRl7kN21n

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

Well, this piece seems to be holding up. “The most conventional thing Donald Trump has done in his entire life has been to go to war in the Middle East. And he has gone about this war in an entirely familiar way. Like president after president since 1950, he has found it easy to get into a war, harder to get out. Like president after president since 1969, he has hoped that airpower and/or economic sanctions would avoid the risks of having boots on the ground. The classic pattern of U.S. interventions is nearly always 'Fire, Aim, Ready.' The classic pattern of American diplomacy is nearly always to regard talking and fighting as alternatives to one another, rather than complements.”

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

“The irony is that the barrage of 'truth' has concealed the one genuinely important decision that Trump has taken throughout the conflict. That decision was taken about six or seven weeks ago, I would guess, probably around the time of the multi-post Truth storm of April 2-5. It was the decision not to proceed with a forcible military reopening of the Strait. In my view, it was the only option available to the president to avoid the prolonged battle of the blockades that has since unfolded. The reason he turned it down was the classic reason so many American presidents have recoiled from deploying 'boots on the ground.' He dreaded the body bags and the coffins. He feared the stricken destroyer. Above all, he feared the media coverage and the popular revulsion. He was, in other words, like many another president before him.”