Namik Immelback

Macro Strategist in hedge funds since 2006 New York, London -
Now, Chief Strategist SEB, Stockholm:
Opinions my own - no investment advice

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

Looks like peak silver conditions....
Imagine if Fed governor choice + Trump not allowed to fire Lisa Cook is a sell the event regarding 'political take over of Fed', US clarifies no import tariffs on precious metal and China threat of export restriction gets negotiated away...

[ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq @donnelly_brent]

Good balanced silver outlook.

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

🎯

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Wow it looks like TGA hit $1t (ht @ces921).

What if the government shutdown is unintentionally causing a build up of funds, which is draining reserves a lot and putting upward pressure on repo rates?

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

I dont tweet often but when I do its good 😉
FX Pilot is out - best free source on macro and FX
https://t.co/UZFxCgw4Jn

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

@AndreasSteno Lower risk of too high tariffs - steepener: less near term inflation shock/worse fiscal longer term with no tariff income? ; fed can cut but fiscal headache ?

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

@Brad_Setser ...like a tap on shoulder to not sell USTs before trade negotiation done..

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

When the labor demand curve slides down the vertical portion of the labor supply curve, all you get are lower wage growth and fewer job openings; in other words, an “immaculate disinflation”. That was the story for 2023/24. This year is likely to be very different. We’ve reached the kink in the Beveridge/Phillips curve.

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

Internet's best free source of macro and market analysis out again: FX Pilot 50 pages, full of charts , not for the macro novice.
https://t.co/HowRrhfE1Z

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

The WSJ (@chelseydulaney) on Ireland diplomatic strategy heading into a difficult St. Patrick's day ....

1/2

https://t.co/LJzdeRbgDx

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Virtually every comment in today's ISM manufacturing report is about uncertainty or hesitancy in doing business on account of tariffs.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Two of the three main indicators of Chinese intervention in the fx market are out, and as usual they are interesting --

PBOC balance sheet reserves were down $8b in January.

But the state banks foreign assets rose by over $20b ...

1/

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

If Macro and markets is your thing this is for you. FX Pilot deep dives into Trumponomics and FX markets.
https://t.co/8Ha0B2Ll5h

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

@Brad_Setser vs whom on a bilateral basis do you think the underreporting occurs? Surely not US as numbers can be verified on US end?

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

China reported a $180b current account surplus in q4, bringing its full year surplus up to $420 billion --

The thing is that is still far too small given China's $1 trillion customs surplus. The real surplus is closer to $800b in my opinion.

1/

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

China reported a $180b current account surplus in q4, bringing its full year surplus up to $420 billion --

The thing is that is still far too small given China's $1 trillion customs surplus. The real surplus is closer to $800b in my opinion.

1/

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

A little lost in the (temporary?) shelving of Canada/Mexico tariffs is the fact that the China ones are about 2X everything Trump did in his first term--which was considered quite dramatic at the time (although that was probably overstated).

Could be for better or for worse.

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

Great way to incentivese the smartest and most productive to leave - they can have paid vacation with high confidence in finding something in the private sector..

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

PEANUTS

A lot of people have cited the hiring freeze and this buyout offer as a sign that Trump is serious about reigning in spending

Trump offers federal workers buyout, promises eight months severance pay

We are talking about 150k-200k employees in a base-case scenario. It is essentially peanuts (and only symbolic) but will impact February NFP

This is similar to the EU cutting 5-10% of its workforce. Not a single member country would notice.

[Marko Papic @Geo_papic]

Trump critics don't get his style. This clip will help (hint: Trump is Will Ferrell in the scene... another hint: Davos poster on the wall 🤣).

https://t.co/u42X33nNJ3

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation Measure was 2.7% in December, up from 2.6% the month before. Although core CPI came in a touch reassuring other measures, notably median and trimmed mean, did not--suggesting some of the surface improvement may have been quirks.

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

Trump and dump...

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is beyond insane:

Donald Trump just launched a meme coin, $TRUMP, which is now over +4,200% in 2 hours.

The market cap now stands at $7.7 BILLION in a causal meme coin launch on a Friday night.

What is happening?

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

Is Trump price?;rates and FX
https://t.co/QVWgCaNzvm

[Namik Immelback @NImmelback]

That's the game plan to get out of leverage overhang. Roll the whole economy into lower yielding debt to create space for amortisation. Lower for longer like US post 2008

[George Magnus @georgemagnus1]

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it doesn’t change anything. Chinese bond yields collapsed below a longstanding roughly 3-5% trading range in 2020 and have been falling ever since. That’s deflation