While I think BTC bottoms in Q4 2026, the time to start accumulating BTC is often after the drop into the summer.
I basically just ignore Bitcoin for the first half of midterm years, then look for deals in the second half.
You do not have to time bottoms exactly to make money
$BTC is in a daily bear flag. Price is rising. OI is rising. Volume is declining.
Most people see the green candles and get excited.
Here's what the data is actually telling you 👇
📈 Rising price inside a flag = relief rally.
This is not a reversal. It's a retracement. Price is simply filling liquidity overhead before the next move.
The flag is the trap.
📊 Rising OI alongside price = fresh longs being opened into the bounce.
But who's taking the other side of those trades?
In a bear flag context, smart money is shorting into the retail FOMO.
The OI build isn't confirming the move. It's loading the trap.
📉 Declining volume = no conviction behind the buyers.
A real reversal needs expanding volume to show genuine absorption of supply.
A low-participation grind up is exactly what bear flags look like internally.
So what's the probable macro move?
↗️ Price squeezes into the LIQ zone (50-61.8% fib) to grab liquidity
📌 OI spikes → maximum long exposure
🔻 Volume fails to confirm
💥 Flag breaks down → measured move targets previous lows
The ONE thing that invalidates this:
A high-volume daily close above the 61.8% fib with OI holding and volume expanding.
That would signal real absorption, not distribution.
Until then, the weight of evidence favours continuation.
Watch how price REACTS to resistance. Not just whether it touches it.
The reaction tells you everything.
I posted about this level 5 weeks ago. All I've been doing since is waiting for price to get here.
#Bitcoin has tended to follow the 4 year cycle ever since it got created. 📈💥
Historically speaking, the accumulation phase has also happened every 4 years, and lasted 1 year.🔥
Question is, will this pattern repeat this time too? (NFA)