Best win Iβve ever had as a punter π
2019 NRL Top Try Scorer β Maika Sivo
Idea came from a mate (mate that lost the 20 legga)
We did the homework.
Then went all in.
Biggest hurdles:
β’ Would Brad Arthur pick him Round 1? All signs said yes.
β’ There was no market β we literally rang books and asked them to price it.
He opened 150/1.
We piled in: 150s, 130s⦠even grabbed some around ~25/1 during the season, we didn't need to stake that much!
Came down to the final round:
Parramatta Eels vs Manly
Sivo was 1 try behind Ken Maumalo.
We booked 12 tickets at the Cumberland Lounge, shouted a bunch of our tradies along.
Confidence highβ¦ then halftime hits β no Sivo tries.
Second half?
π₯ Hat-trick.
Game over....was an awesome night (man I drank some beer)
Between us we cleaned up around ~$70k.
I lost $1500 covering a Maumalo hat-trick hedge against the Raiders (never happened)β¦
Who's your 2026 top try scorer?
#NRL #NRLBetting #Punters #BackyardBets #LongOdds
Storm v Knights | Tryscorer Form
Players ratings for tonight's game....I do like Fletcher Hunt @ $3.10 though.
1. Right Wing | Dominic Young (Knights) β Score: 12.5
- Form: 11 tries in last 10 games (1.10/game)
- H2H: 4 tries / 4 games vs Melbourne Storm (1.00/game)
- Venue: 1 tries / 2 games at AAMI Park (0.50/game)
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Melbourne Storm
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
2. Left Wing | Greg Marzhew (Knights) β Score: 11.5
- Form: 14 tries in last 10 games (1.40/game)
- H2H: 1 tries / 4 games vs Melbourne Storm (0.25/game)
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Melbourne Storm
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
3. Left Edge | Dylan Lucas (Knights) β Score: 9.0
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Melbourne Storm (1.00/game)
- Venue: 2 tries / 1 games at AAMI Park (2.00/game)
4. Fullback | Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) β Score: 8.24
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- Venue: 8 tries / 13 games at AAMI Park (0.62/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-2 leaked position for Newcastle Knights
5. Right Wing | Will Warbrick (Storm) β Score: 7.16
- Form: 8 tries in last 10 games (0.80/game)
- Venue: 18 tries / 31 games at AAMI Park (0.58/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
@MikeMeehallWood Played with Kaides old man Markβ¦played with Isaahs old man too. Still remember when Isaah was born, parents were so youngβ¦amazing job
Sea Eagles v Rabbits | Tryscorer Form
Not really feeling this game, so here's how the algo scored them:
1. Right Edge | Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) β Score: 14.5
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 1 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (2.00/game)
- Venue: 2 tries / 1 games at 4 Pines Park (2.00/game)
- More dangerous as underdog
- Positional match: Right Edge is a top-2 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
2. Left Wing | Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) β Score: 10.54
- Form: 9 tries in last 10 games (0.90/game)
- Venue: 12 tries / 23 games at 4 Pines Park (0.52/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for South Sydney Rabbitohs
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
3. Left Wing | Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) β Score: 9.3
- Form: 15 tries in last 10 games (1.50/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 5 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (0.40/game)
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
4. Right Wing | Edward Kosi (Rabbitohs) β Score: 7.0
- Form: 4 tries in last 10 games (0.40/game)
- More dangerous as underdog
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
5. Fullback | Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) β Score: 6.84
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- Venue: 6 tries / 9 games at 4 Pines Park (0.67/game)
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-2 leaked position for South Sydney Rabbitohs
Good Luck βοΈ
Eagles v Rabbits
Adam Gee
Avg Pts 44.6
Over 25% | Under 75%
Home Win 33.3%
Fav Win 58.3%
Avg Tries 7.83
Avg Set Restarts #1 @ 11.1 per game....Manly first half??
NRL Round 14 | Halfway Round
Running new model we'll see how it goes....looks a tough round!!
Sea Eagles | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Knights | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Roosters | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Dolphins | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Broncos v Titans | Too close to call π€£
Panthers | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Cronulla Sharks | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Eels | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
I'll choose the Broncos with no confidence
Good Luck βοΈ
Broncos v Dragons | Try Scorer Form
1. Right Centre | Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) β Score: 8.94
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 7 tries / 5 games vs St George Dragons (1.40/game)
- Venue: 31 tries / 54 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.57/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Right Centre is a top-2 position under this referee
2. Fullback | Reece Walsh (Broncos) β Score: 8.16
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs St George Dragons (1.00/game)
- Venue: 21 tries / 36 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.58/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Fullback is a top-2 position under this referee
3. Left Wing | Josiah Karapani (Broncos) β Score: 6.62
- Form: 3 tries in last 10 games (0.30/game)
- Venue: 9 tries / 16 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.56/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for St George Dragons
Best Value Play: Ezra Mam
Good Luck βοΈ
Sharks v Eagles | Try Scorer Lineups
Here's how the algo scored them....
1. Right Wing | Ronaldo Mulitalo (Cronulla Sharks) β Score: 13.66
- Form: 13 tries in last 10 games (1.30/game)
- H2H: 7 tries / 7 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (1.00/game)
- Venue: 42 tries / 39 games at Sharks Stadium (1.08/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
2. Left Wing | Samuel Stonestreet (Cronulla Sharks) β Score: 8.7
- Form: 3 tries in last 10 games (0.30/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (1.00/game)
- Venue: 6 tries / 10 games at Sharks Stadium (0.60/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
3. Left Wing | Lehi Hopoate (Manly Sea Eagles) β Score: 7.5
- Form: 9 tries in last 10 games (0.90/game)
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Cronulla Sharks
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee
4. Fullback | William Kennedy (Cronulla Sharks) β Score: 7.3
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- H2H: 3 tries / 6 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (0.50/game)
- Venue: 17 tries / 42 games at Sharks Stadium (0.40/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
5. Fullback | Clayton Faulalo (Manly Sea Eagles) β Score: 6.0
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Cronulla Sharks (1.00/game)
- More dangerous as underdog
It's funny how Qld had NO ISSUE with Ashley Klein when he dolled out a match-winning penalty count in Origin 2 last year. From memory it was 10-0 at one stage. Blues were never given a chance. π€‘π«’