NRL Backyard Bets

🎯 NRL Backyard Bets
NRL insights from the backyard — data-driven picks, sharp stats & try scorer value. No fluff, just footy & facts. #NRLBets #PuntSmart

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Best win I’ve ever had as a punter 🏆
2019 NRL Top Try Scorer — Maika Sivo

Idea came from a mate (mate that lost the 20 legga)
We did the homework.
Then went all in.
Biggest hurdles:
• Would Brad Arthur pick him Round 1? All signs said yes.
• There was no market — we literally rang books and asked them to price it.
He opened 150/1.
We piled in: 150s, 130s… even grabbed some around ~25/1 during the season, we didn't need to stake that much!
Came down to the final round:
Parramatta Eels vs Manly
Sivo was 1 try behind Ken Maumalo.
We booked 12 tickets at the Cumberland Lounge, shouted a bunch of our tradies along.
Confidence high… then halftime hits — no Sivo tries.
Second half?
💥 Hat-trick.
Game over....was an awesome night (man I drank some beer)
Between us we cleaned up around ~$70k.
I lost $1500 covering a Maumalo hat-trick hedge against the Raiders (never happened)…

Who's your 2026 top try scorer?
#NRL #NRLBetting #Punters #BackyardBets #LongOdds

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@MatchupEngine He has always played right so that means he’ll play left 😳

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Storm v Knights | Tryscorer Form
Players ratings for tonight's game....I do like Fletcher Hunt @ $3.10 though.

1. Right Wing | Dominic Young (Knights) — Score: 12.5
- Form: 11 tries in last 10 games (1.10/game)
- H2H: 4 tries / 4 games vs Melbourne Storm (1.00/game)
- Venue: 1 tries / 2 games at AAMI Park (0.50/game)
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Melbourne Storm
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

2. Left Wing | Greg Marzhew (Knights) — Score: 11.5
- Form: 14 tries in last 10 games (1.40/game)
- H2H: 1 tries / 4 games vs Melbourne Storm (0.25/game)
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Melbourne Storm
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

3. Left Edge | Dylan Lucas (Knights) — Score: 9.0
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Melbourne Storm (1.00/game)
- Venue: 2 tries / 1 games at AAMI Park (2.00/game)

4. Fullback | Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — Score: 8.24
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- Venue: 8 tries / 13 games at AAMI Park (0.62/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-2 leaked position for Newcastle Knights

5. Right Wing | Will Warbrick (Storm) — Score: 7.16
- Form: 8 tries in last 10 games (0.80/game)
- Venue: 18 tries / 31 games at AAMI Park (0.58/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@MikeMeehallWood Played with Kaides old man Mark…played with Isaahs old man too. Still remember when Isaah was born, parents were so young…amazing job

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@steele_sports @MikeMeehallWood Bundy Yeo

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Bennett had to put Tallis on the left didn’t he 🤪

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@MatchupEngine Starting to think its gonna be one of those games

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Sea Eagles v Rabbits | Tryscorer Form
Not really feeling this game, so here's how the algo scored them:

1. Right Edge | Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — Score: 14.5
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 1 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (2.00/game)
- Venue: 2 tries / 1 games at 4 Pines Park (2.00/game)
- More dangerous as underdog
- Positional match: Right Edge is a top-2 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles

2. Left Wing | Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — Score: 10.54
- Form: 9 tries in last 10 games (0.90/game)
- Venue: 12 tries / 23 games at 4 Pines Park (0.52/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for South Sydney Rabbitohs
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

3. Left Wing | Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — Score: 9.3
- Form: 15 tries in last 10 games (1.50/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 5 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (0.40/game)
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

4. Right Wing | Edward Kosi (Rabbitohs) — Score: 7.0
- Form: 4 tries in last 10 games (0.40/game)
- More dangerous as underdog
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-2 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
- Referee bonus: Right Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

5. Fullback | Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — Score: 6.84
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- Venue: 6 tries / 9 games at 4 Pines Park (0.67/game)
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-2 leaked position for South Sydney Rabbitohs

Good Luck ✌️

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@MatchupEngine Thats it….but Souths go left but they gotter go right 🤣

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Eagles v Rabbits
Adam Gee
Avg Pts 44.6
Over 25% | Under 75%
Home Win 33.3%
Fav Win 58.3%
Avg Tries 7.83
Avg Set Restarts #1 @ 11.1 per game....Manly first half??

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

NRL Round 14 | Halfway Round
Running new model we'll see how it goes....looks a tough round!!

Sea Eagles | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Knights | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Roosters | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1
Dolphins | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Broncos v Titans | Too close to call 🤣
Panthers | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Cronulla Sharks | Confidence: HIGH | Proj. try margin: 2
Eels | Confidence: MEDIUM | Proj. try margin: 1

I'll choose the Broncos with no confidence
Good Luck ✌️

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@ReadingThePlay Don't worry wont like them that much....but seriously who doesn't like Foz!

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Shit....as a Parra fan I have to like Manly again 😳

[Manly Warringah Sea Eagles @SeaEagles]

👀👀

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Broncos v Dragons | Try Scorer Form

1. Right Centre | Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — Score: 8.94
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 7 tries / 5 games vs St George Dragons (1.40/game)
- Venue: 31 tries / 54 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.57/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Right Centre is a top-2 position under this referee

2. Fullback | Reece Walsh (Broncos) — Score: 8.16
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs St George Dragons (1.00/game)
- Venue: 21 tries / 36 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.58/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Referee bonus: Fullback is a top-2 position under this referee

3. Left Wing | Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — Score: 6.62
- Form: 3 tries in last 10 games (0.30/game)
- Venue: 9 tries / 16 games at Suncorp Stadium (0.56/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-2 leaked position for St George Dragons

Best Value Play: Ezra Mam
Good Luck ✌️

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Sharks v Eagles | Try Scorer Lineups
Here's how the algo scored them....

1. Right Wing | Ronaldo Mulitalo (Cronulla Sharks) — Score: 13.66
- Form: 13 tries in last 10 games (1.30/game)
- H2H: 7 tries / 7 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (1.00/game)
- Venue: 42 tries / 39 games at Sharks Stadium (1.08/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Right Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles

2. Left Wing | Samuel Stonestreet (Cronulla Sharks) — Score: 8.7
- Form: 3 tries in last 10 games (0.30/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (1.00/game)
- Venue: 6 tries / 10 games at Sharks Stadium (0.60/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

3. Left Wing | Lehi Hopoate (Manly Sea Eagles) — Score: 7.5
- Form: 9 tries in last 10 games (0.90/game)
- Positional match: Left Wing is a top-3 leaked position for Cronulla Sharks
- Referee bonus: Left Wing is a top-2 position under this referee

4. Fullback | William Kennedy (Cronulla Sharks) — Score: 7.3
- Form: 5 tries in last 10 games (0.50/game)
- H2H: 3 tries / 6 games vs Manly Sea Eagles (0.50/game)
- Venue: 17 tries / 42 games at Sharks Stadium (0.40/game)
- More dangerous as favourite
- Positional match: Fullback is a top-3 leaked position for Manly Sea Eagles

5. Fullback | Clayton Faulalo (Manly Sea Eagles) — Score: 6.0
- Form: 6 tries in last 10 games (0.60/game)
- H2H: 2 tries / 2 games vs Cronulla Sharks (1.00/game)
- More dangerous as underdog

[Bondi Roosters @bondiroosters]

It's funny how Qld had NO ISSUE with Ashley Klein when he dolled out a match-winning penalty count in Origin 2 last year. From memory it was 10-0 at one stage. Blues were never given a chance. 🤡🫢

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

@MikeMeehallWood QLD line speed was outstanding all night…like they were getting a head start or something 😳

[Mitch @mitcheels1]

If you counted this Game I as a win for QLD, don’t complain when it goes the other way. #Origin

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

Laurie finally gets Origin…just get someone sent off 😎

[NRL Backyard Bets @NRLBackyardBets]

I was hoping they were just gonna do the opposite of what Laurie was telling them to do all week 😬

[RichitiGrub @WSWanderingEels]

Looks like Lawry has got the boys up for this one. 😂

#Origin