Nabuh

Technical Analysis · Orderflow · Onchain
Reading what the market is telling us.
Discipline & Data over noise.

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OI spiked from 46B to 53B this week.

Most people saw the price move. Few understood what was building underneath it.
Here's what Open Interest actually tells you and how to use it with CVD to read moves before they happen 🧵:

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@TedPillows Makes sense, prior bear markets averaged ~370 days ATH to bottom, we're at day 251. Data points to Q3/Q4, October 2026 specifically. One of the missing pieces: no Long-Term Holder flush yet, supply in loss at 52.7%. Small pump first then lower feels like the right sequence.

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@KillaXBT Miner capitulation is a real signal but the chart shows it's a zone, not a precise entry. In 2018 and 2022 price kept dropping after the difficulty bottom. Supply in loss at 52.7%, still no Long-Term Holder capitulation, those are the missing pieces before calling the bottom.

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@Mr_Derivatives Futures barely moving despite the largest IPO in history opening today. The big move already happened Thursday, SPX +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%. SpaceX perp on Hyperliquid cooling from $220 to $162. Market priced this in weeks ago. The question is what happens after the euphoria fades.

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@arkham Bitgo withdrawal means cold storage / accumulation, not trading. The Bitmine pattern match is what makes it interesting, same behavior before their previous ETH positions. $41M in a single move is meaningful size. Worth watching if the pattern repeats over the next few days.

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@NoLimitGains Trump signaling an Iran deal is the driver, that's why Korea is up 8.5% and risk-on is back. Samsung and SK Hynix are 72% of KOSPI gains this year. Incredibly concentrated. Same risk-on wave should hit BTC, most liquid asset in the room when sentiment flips this fast.

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@exitpumpBTC Price moving without spot CVD confirming, this move is more vulnerable. Longs are chasing, not accumulating. If spot doesn't catch up soon, these longs get squeezed back.

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$BTC — Noticed something interesting looking at the last 4 Thursdays.

Every single one followed the same pattern.
Quiet consolidation during the day, then the real move came Friday or over the weekend. The only exception was May 14, quick pump then a sharp reversal.

Tonight SpaceX prices at $135/share, trading starts tomorrow. Largest IPO in history at $1.77T.
BTC is the most liquid risk-on asset in the room, first to get sold when big capital moves, first to reprice when it comes back.

Could be setting up the same Thursday pattern again. Quiet today, volatile tomorrow.

Anyone else watching this play out?

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@KobeissiLetter CPI 4.2%, PPI now 6.5%, pipeline inflation still rising. Add Hormuz closing today and oil spiking on top. Fed isn't cutting, rate hikes back on the table. Stagflation with a geopolitical accelerant. Worst possible macro backdrop for risk assets short term.

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@WatcherGuru Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's oil exports. With Hormuz already closed, the US is moving to control both chokepoints at once. That's a direct play on global oil supply. Oil spikes, inflation goes higher, risk-off hits everything. BTC feels it first.

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@benjamincowen Peak 5 tracking above prior cycles, but every line on that chart trended down until day 365-400. We're at day 248. If history repeats, lower prices ahead, which means better entries before the reversal. Hormuz closing today doesn't make that path shorter.

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@PhilakoneCrypto The macro just gave this setup a real catalyst. Hormuz just closed, oil spikes, inflation goes higher, Fed has no reason to cut. That's risk-off for everything. If that breaks $60-60.3K, the path to $48-50K opens up fast. Bull trap scenario just got a lot more credible.

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@HormuzLetter Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil. Full closure means oil spikes into 4.2% inflation. Fed has no reason to cut, BTC gets sold first, most liquid in the room. Rough short term but every time the dollar gets weaponized, the case for alternatives gets stronger.

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@KillaXBT The catalyst is already in play, SpaceX pricing tonight, listing tomorrow at $1.77T. If that absorbs risk appetite short term, the pattern has a fundamental driver this cycle. The tell will be whether orderflow confirms any pump into the 14th.

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@TedPillows The divergence is the interesting part. Stocks and metals breaking lower while BTC holds $61K suggests spot absorption, bids holding the tape. Whether that's accumulation or a dead cat pause gets answered this US session. $60.1–60.3K is still the line.

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$BTC — Update. Not much has changed since yesterday's post. Small bounce to $63k.

We bounced back to $63K following the CPI print.
Orderflow was bullish locally:
- Orderbook bid dominant
- Shorts getting absorbed.

Currently we are facing some resistance:
- Orderbook has now flipped ask dominant with limit sells stacked around $63–63.6K.
- Spot CVD flat/slightly down, not the confirmation needed for a clean push higher.
- OI trending slightly up, expect potential volatility around US session

Scenarios unchanged from yesterday.
$60.1–60.3K remains the line.
1) Lose it and the current lows around $59.1 come back into play.
2) Hold it and $64.2–64.7K liquidation cluster is the target above.

SpaceX listing tomorrow at $1.77T, largest IPO in history. BTC most liquid risk-on asset in the room.
Watching how that plays into tonight's US session.

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@NoLimitGains SpaceX 3x oversubscribed at $1.77T, 94x revenue. BTC down 52% from ATH. Maximum equity euphoria while crypto is in a bear market, that's a divergence worth watching. When this capital eventually looks for the next asymmetric bet, BTC could reprice fast when that rotation starts.

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@arkham Coinbase Prime deposit is the key signal here, that's where actual sell pressure starts if it's coming. But this is FTX creditor repayment, structured distribution not dumping. $984K is noise at current volumes. Worth watching if the wallet activity starts scaling up though.

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@TedPillows The $47M BlackRock inflow on Jun 5 looked like the streak was ending. Jun 10 shows $148M back out from IBIT alone. One session doesn't make a trend, need to see consistent inflows before reading that as a reversal. Still watching.

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@coinglass_com $63.5K is the first reclaim needed to flip structure. $60.5K lines up exactly with the weekend lows at $60.1–60.3K, same cluster, now showing up on the liquidation heatmap too. Lose that zone and the range breaks to the downside with nothing meaningful below.

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@BitcoinArchive Kraken saying this while BTC ETFs just saw 13 straight sessions of outflows and $4.4B drained. The infrastructure is being built at exactly the point in the cycle where retail is in peak fear. That's not a coincidence, it's how the next phase gets set up.