Post after a long time. Market is so insane that I had to re-check my PF YTD (492%) to not feel the FOMO for missed out a few. My returns are all thanks to insane $ASTS run + $HIMS, $UNH, $EOSE, $IREN, $CIFR, and other successful swings.
This is the best post on $OSCR. People have been hyping it up and projecting it as some kind of high growth/margin business. It is ultimately insurance and low margin business (5% NI) with an ACA risk. So at best, I expect a 100% upside in a year or two.
I like $OSCR, but I’m not going to start posting that it is a $100 stock in the next 12 months.
The company is projecting $2.25 EPS for 2027. That’s just north of a 7 P/E. This is also assuming subsidies are not in play.
I’m going to assume the company deserves a 15 P/E, which is conservative, which puts fair value at $33.75, which is a double.
I’ll gladly take a double in the next 24 months.
$ASTS $HIMS $OSCR
There's a prevailing narrative that any rallying growth stock is just a "retail frenzy."
This is a simplistic and often incorrect take. The real story is usually far more nuanced and driven by fundamental catalysts.
Let's dissect what's really going on. 🧵👇
@Jlbra1@em013L Yes. Insurance inherently a very low margin business+ ACA risk (ICHRA is not a direct replacement) stopped me from opening a position though numbers look good. $OSCR
This brings us to the flawed "good short candidate" thesis.Many stocks are being targeted simply because they've rallied.This ignores the underlying catalyst and is a dangerous game.Shorting a company on a true innovation path can be just as damaging as going long a failing one.
So, what's the play?
A blanket short position seems ill-advised. The smarter approach, in my opinion, is to either:
1) Participate with caution, based on deep research.
2) Or simply sit on the sidelines and learn.
Uninformed conviction is dangerous on both sides of the trade.
Finally, let's look at the macro picture.
We are not on the verge of a massive rate shock like we saw in 2022. The economic conditions that force a violent rotation from risk-on to risk-off assets are not currently present.
And sometimes the catalyst is survival itself. $EOSE significantly reduced its bankruptcy risk by securing over $330M in new financing. This wasn't a growth story, but a crucial de-risking event that changed its entire outlook.
Or look at $RKLB. Its strength isn't random; it's built on a foundation of repeated success, with a high-tempo launch schedule and clear progress on its next-generation Neutron rocket. This is execution being rewarded.
Policy can also be a powerful catalyst. $OSCR didn't move on its own. A proposed Medicare Advantage extension ("Part E") fundamentally expanded its potential market, a clear-cut catalyst for institutional models to update.
Then there's $HIMS. This is a classic post-SPAC re-rating. After proving its growth model, the explosion in GLP-1 interest brought a wave of institutional attention, forcing a re-evaluation of its worth.