Nat Gas Tourist

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

GEFS 06Z Wed: +5.0 HDD vs 06Z Tue on Nov 11–25 (266.6 vs 261.6), colder. GFS 06Z +9.1 HDD. Cold lean Nov 14–18 supports front-month. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

@OptioNerd1 One of the worst to ever do it. Seriously.

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

Cold risk is continuing to build #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

GEFS 12Z Tue +23.4 HDD vs 12Z Mon (Nov 10-24, 15 days); EC ENS 12Z +5.8 HDD (Nov 10-23, 14 days). Both colder, cold Nov 16-18 and Nov 23-24. Bullish tilt for prompt weather. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

GEFS 06Z: +22.2 HDD vs 06Z yesterday (Nov 10–24, 15 days), flat vs 00Z. Cold Nov 16–19 holds; EC ENS 00Z +11.5. Colder vs 24h. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

@stoked_on_waves Such a shitco

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

GEFS 18Z Mon: +13.5 HDD vs 18Z Sun over Nov 10–23, colder Nov 13–19. Still warm vs normal, but a supportive colder revision for prompt gas. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

Squeeeeeezy #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

@kentfunny2021 So you’re long?

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

How are you currently positioned? #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

Feels like it was the first frost overnight here in Chicago #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

CFS Ens 06Z Sat: Dec 1–17 at 438.4 vs 459.8 (−21.4), 19.3 warmer vs 00Z near-normal — December soft again. Late Nov +8.9 colder. GEFS/ENS D1–10 unchanged (still warm). No cold F/G flash. #natgas

[Ethan Kho @ethanrkho]

Ex-Goldman Head of Nat Gas Trading John Knorring on the one equation behind every commodity trade, why the US has the cheapest gas in the world, & buying silver in the low $30s, riding it to $120, then watching it drop to $65 in a day.

John Knorring (Former Head of Natural Gas Trading at Goldman Sachs | Commodities trader at DRW | Founder of Green Tiger Markets)

"If you can leave Wall Street with your name intact and your house paid for, you're ahead of 90% of the people who go there."

We cover:
- Supply minus demand equals change in inventory, and why price does all the balancing when storage is full or empty
- Why crude at -$40 in 2020 made perfect sense
- "Gas Vegas": why US nat gas is so volatile (prices nearly doubled in a week this January)
- The real reason US gas is the cheapest in the world: the Henry Hub contract
- How Aubrey McClendon and the shale revolution flipped US power from coal to gas
- The Goldman framework for trading: idea, expression, execution, money management
- The silver trade, and the hardest question in trading: what do you do when it's working?
- Why physical gas traders will outlast derivatives traders in the age of automation

Highlights:
00:00 Intro
02:00 From CBOT intern to Goldman's nat gas desk
05:10 Supply minus demand equals change in inventory
08:19 Energy as the fundamental cost: burn it or store it
12:00 Storability spectrum: coal, oil, gas, and power
14:30 Why nat gas is so volatile: inelastic demand, weather, storage
17:20 Henry Hub: why US gas trades below global prices
20:40 Basis risk when regional hubs decouple from Henry Hub
22:10 Gas Vegas: inventory regimes and 20 years of price spikes
27:20 High prices build supply: horizontal drilling and the shale revolution
29:50 Low prices build demand: power burn, LNG exports, data centers
34:20 The trading framework: idea, expression, execution, money management
38:00 Silver from Bunker Hunt to the $50 psychological ceiling
40:30 The silver trade: structural deficit, cheap calls, missed exit
46:00 Position sizing lessons, the duck curve, and the LNG export wave
49:00 Why physical gas trading outlasts automated derivatives desks
51:10 Name intact, house paid for: career advice for Wall Street

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

CFS Ens 06Z Fri: Dec 1-17 431.4 vs 459.8 (-28.4), ~2 TDD warmer than 00Z. Nov 15-28 flipped +5.8 vs normal (+24 vs 00Z). Dec still soft - no cold F/G signal. GEFS/ENS unchanged soft mid-Nov. Mildly bearish long-range. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

06Z CFS Ensemble came in 32.5 TDD colder vs 00Z for Nov 15-28 (295.6 vs 291.6 normal), but 30.8 warmer for Dec 1-18 (469.7 vs 489.2 normal). Long-range only, no new GEFS or ECMWF ENS yet. December leans mildly bearish on CFS. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

12Z CFS Ensemble came in 38.6 TDD warmer than 06Z for Dec 1-14 (333.6 vs 374.0 normal) and 32.7 warmer for Nov 29-Dec 12. Nov 15-28 ticked 8.6 colder but sits 45 below normal. 12Z GEFS and ECMWF ENS are 89-97 TDD below normal through Nov 16. Mildly bearish. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

Wow what a week in #natgas!

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

@FibChartsPro just tracking if the move is new money piling in or old money getting squeezed out.

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

h/j #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

12Z GFS op flipped 68.9 TDD warmer vs 06Z (144.8 vs 267.4 normal, Oct 30-Nov 14), erasing its colder Nov 6-14 signal. 12Z GEFS so far (thru Nov 11) is near-unchanged vs 06Z. Low-weight op run, but mildly bearish. #natgas

[Nat Gas Tourist @NatGasTourist]

06Z CFS Ensemble long range barely moved vs 00Z: Nov 15–28 at 277.5 TDD (normal 291.6), Nov 29–Dec 12 at 352.5 (+2.2, normal 363.6). Still below normal into mid-Dec, no new cold signal. Mildly bearish. Eyes on 12Z GEFS/ECMWF ENS. #natgas