Nate Silver

Silver Bulletin, not the only thing I'm doing but the main thing and the best thing!

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Sometimes the answer to questionmark headlines is YES https://t.co/Xg3Qke7e1a

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

And the wins aren't necessarily great. Involves a lot of $$$ and news cycles w/ Dems forced to defend him when they should be talking about Trump. ME should be one of their easier flips and now Platner's own internals imply it's a tossup. Plus he could be Fetterman-esque.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Maybe because she's a good politician (though Bernie is too certainly) and the risk-reward is not great with Platner.

[Zaid Jilani @ZaidJilani]

Ro Khanna and Bernie are doing a great job defending Platner.

Where is AOC?

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

There are 3 scenarios (he drops out, he stays in and wins, he stays in and loses). Not saying they're equally likely but 2 of those are bad for Platner's defenders and a loss that costs D the Senate is catastrophic.

[Steve Popper @StevePopper]

As someone who covered the 1994 NBA Finals, it's a big assignment with a lot of work to do on deadline so I'd like to ask celebrities not to get in any slow car chases with police traliing a white bronco tonight.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Not to mention the history of polls underrating Collins and other Republicans in Maine, as I discussed earlier this week.

https://t.co/L3JzW1EHYR

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

An internal poll showing +4 is not super reassuring given that internal polls typically exaggerate their candidate's standing by 4 points or so. And that's smaller than Platner's lead in most public polls before.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Senate poll - Maine

🔵 Platner 49%
🔴 Collins (Inc) 45%

PPP #B (Platner internal) -RV - 6/3

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

We think this chart is a lot of fun too, historic trajectories for all 48 teams since the first World Cup in 1930.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

The landing page is here. We hope you'll bookmark this. It will be updated at the end of each match day with detailed advancement scenarios, along with adjustments for injuries and performance to date.

https://t.co/vmASAUPhD1

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Our World Cup projections are ready!

100,000 simulations of every stage of the tournament.

We hope you'll appreciate the level of detail. Here are our baseline ratings for each team.

Spoiler: USA/CAN/MEX are not in the top tier but get a boost from home-field advantage.

[Florian Ederer @florianederer]

I believe we now have evidence of FIFA's World Cup ticketing shell game: FIFA is colluding with third-party resale platforms for its own supply management.

Look at this SeatGeek map (secondary market!) for Saudi Arabia vs Cape Verde. The circled areas are not random single resale tickets, but large, contiguous blocks of seats: entire rows and swaths in sections 101/102, 112/113, 119/120, 134–137, 139, ...

The blue circles appeared weeks ago, then the purple blocks suddenly showed up a day or two ago, and the red blocks seem to have appeared recently too.

That's not what ordinary fan or even commercial scalper resale looks like who resell pairs, fours, and scattered seats. Instead, this looks like inventory being dumped in bulk onto secondary markets, at prices below FIFA's official site.

Why doesn't FIFA just lower prices on its own site Probably because official price cuts could trigger refund demands, chargebacks, or consumer-protection headaches from fans who already bought at much higher prices.

Instead FIFA keeps official prices high, avoids openly admitting the market-clearing price is lower, and moves unsold inventory through third-party resale platforms instead.

[Film at Lincoln Center @FilmLinc]

We hereby offer Mr. Wembanyama tickets to our Sunday, June 7 screening of Bernardo Bertolucci's stunning five-and-a-half hour epic 1900 when he is in the city later this week on a work-related trip...

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

This is bad and contributes to my view that the Pacers are maybe the most overrated organization in the league.

[Ryan Glasspiegel @sportsrapport]

Scott Agness, who has been covering the Pacers and Fever for eons, says he got his credentials revoked for doing run of the mill reporting, and provides all the receipts:

[Billy Binion @billybinion]

Nothing could have prepared me for this correction. Throw me a funeral. I am deceased.

[Nate Duncan @NateDuncanNBA]

Lot of interesting topics in this one.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Here's our Joseph George (@jogeor_ ) with more, PLUS our NBA Finals chat with special guest @NateDuncanNBA!

https://t.co/7KT1M4C0Nr

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Part II of our NBA Finals preview is up!

The Spurs are one of the youngest *playoff* teams (not just Finals teams) ever.

Empirically, playoff experience matters.

But so far, their poise is outweighing that.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

The fact that it's tolerated is bad too a textbook example of learned helplessness.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

The fact that California elections often can't be resolved for weeks is kind of insane and not common in other electoral systems around the world.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Like honestly "it's going to take us several weeks to tell you who won the election" is failed state shit and should be much more stigmatized.