Dave Wasserman

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: Amid ad uproar, #OHGOV moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/kQRrhB9UuX

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

My personal hunch: if you're looking for upsets, they're more likely to be in places w/ lots of secular whites & independents (i.e. the Midwest) than in the Deep South.

Not totally unrelated: my lunch locale today.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: 19 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/L0otWdPBXq

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New podcast: I took a look ahead at the key midterm races w/ @loujacobson & @MichaelLeePope in partnership w/ @Center4Politics. https://t.co/uHe4VfXFt5

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: 11 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including five GOP seats from Likely R to Lean R. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/yQnxwykYwF

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

Look forward to discussing @CookPolitical’s midterm outlook on @cspanwj at 8am ET. Have a question about a competitive race? Be sure to call in.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

A decent way to think about 2026: many of the places that have swung the most towards Republicans during the Trump era (Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, south TX, north country of NY) are the places we could see some of the biggest pro-Dem swings this year.

[Nathaniel Reed @ReedReports]

👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district):

Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%

Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.

[Nathaniel Reed @ReedReports]

👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district):

Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%

Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: 18 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including four GOP incumbents from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/4f5rWJjCFC

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: Dems inch closer to Senate majority as three races move in their favor.

#KSSEN: Lean R to Toss Up
#NHSEN: Toss Up to Lean D
#NCSEN: Lean D to Likely D

Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/jmTKSBY0Ra

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: GOP on track to lose House majority as 15 race ratings shift towards Dems. Full analysis by @ercovey: https://t.co/2r1bmKg5by

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: https://t.co/ZGv4iZ8GZC

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

New @CookPolitical: with less than six weeks to go, the fight for the Senate is a true Toss Up, with three races shifting towards Dems:

#GASEN: Lean D to Likely D
#KSSEN: Likely R to Lean R
#SCSEN: Solid R to Likely R

Full analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/KQ5GTTRC6F

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

NEW @CookPolitical: our battleground district poll shows a seven point swing to Democrats in the most competitive House races vs. 2024, putting them in excellent position to win the House majority. Full analysis by @Amyewalter and Carrie Dann: https://t.co/Hr7CfWiJmP

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.

https://t.co/pGVQqLm9o3

[Amy Walter @amyewalter]

New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.

https://t.co/Q3YtfANCHG

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

Massive win for Dems, as SCOTUS blocks Missouri GOP’s 7R-1D gerrymander. #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) goes from doomed to safe, and Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R) #MO02 now worth keeping an eye on too.

[Michael Li 李之樸 @mcpli]

BREAKING: The Supreme Court pauses a federal district court order that directed Missouri to use a gerrymandered 7R-1D map for this year’s midterms. The midterms instead will be conducted under the old 6R-2D map. No noted dissents.