Nathan

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@BigBoyBumbus1 @GAremeen @brianros1 Candidate quality was still enormously important in 2024. Trump was running against a quasi-incumbent (who was not a very strong candidate) from an extremely unpopular administration amid historic economic dissatisfaction and still barely won because he’s a toxic brand.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@luistr640poli @LinkofSunshine CO2 per capita is beginning to flatten out while GDP per capita is not.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@johnsthedan @ZFlawles1s If this is the case, why has no candidate endorsed by Justice Dems or the DSA ever flipped a seat from red to blue?

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@InsightsRe77679 @TalkinLooseMeat @evilhooperninja It hasn’t been locked in, Clinton won it by the skin of her teeth in 2016.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@erio1__11 @evilhooperninja FL was considered much more on the table than AZ for Dems in the 2010s.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@TrumanBluman @john_w_clark @evilhooperninja @ettingermentum Clinton nearly lost Minnesota in 2016. The Dem nominee has only won the state by double digits once this century, in 2008.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@i_slamson @Legal_Fil Anyone who voted for the Iraq War should face accountability, but Platner shouldn’t be dishonest about it. He has said explicitly that he chose to go to Iraq because he wanted to kill people. Blaming Collins for that is nonsense.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@Earf_HDITY @Punished_Patt Without taking a position on Melenchon as a politician, seems like he’s extremely likely to let the far right into power if he makes the runoff, which idk if the GOAT would do

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@king2king955 @ZhouJaron If I had to guess, growth & suburban realignment in population centers for Ds and increasingly conservative rural areas for Rs. But you can only juice rural margins so much, and NC’s population centers are still growing.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@FvFot @LinkofSunshine @doxntme Real wages have increased 10-15% at the median since 2015. That’s highly significant! A 10-15% increase in purchasing power translates to a meaningfully higher standard of living.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@PedanticKilljoy @mattyglesias Why wouldn’t they include people with children in the poll?

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@FvFot @LinkofSunshine @doxntme None of that contradicts what I said?

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@R0DANiel_94 @fawfulfan I’m not saying he’s the perfect candidate. The question is whether he’s better than Vance on these fronts, and it seems like he clearly is.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@FvFot @LinkofSunshine @doxntme The trouble with using data from 2012 is that it does not represent the present reality, which has changed considerably since 2012. Real wages are at an all-time high, meaning that people are making more & have higher purchasing power than ever before.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@FvFot @LinkofSunshine @doxntme Quick question why does your graph of real wages cut off at 2012?

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@R0DANiel_94 @fawfulfan Primary success ≠ general election strength. Rubio is experienced, reasonably charismatic, Latino, and has MAGA credibility while still coding as “moderate” to swing voters.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@ConservYIMBY @_fat_ugly_rat_ It’s a map of county swings from the 2004 to 2008 presidential elections. Given that Obama was a far better candidate than Kerry, places that got redder may have had a particular animus toward Obama (excluding MA, AZ, & AK, the home states of Kerry, McCain, & Palin respectively)

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@jenmakesthings @StatisticUrban @MishimaFudanshi These numbers are adjusted for inflation.

[Nathan @Nathan4897]

@PapaJonezy I think her point is that M4A as proposed by Bernie & co — unlimited care at any provider, including vision, dental, and drugs, with absolutely no premium, copay, or deductible — does not exist anywhere in the world.