Navera Research

We try to help investors of any kind understand what’s driving markets and what could come next by making institutional research frameworks more accessible.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

The October 1, 2026 Treasury curve raises an allocation question: how much extra rate exposure is the yield pickup worth?
This guide connects that choice with what happens when corporate spreads move against the rate view.

• Where extending maturity adds yield
• How real yields changed alongside nominal yields
• What a rate rally can leave exposed in a credit portfolio

The guide works through those comparisons before turning to position size: https://t.co/bl1Lsm3OCo

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

At a 302 bp broad-HY spread, CCC reached 1,146 bp on 28 Sep 2026.
Earlier periods with similar headline credit conditions had substantially narrower CCC spreads.

• 141 earlier closes had HY spreads within 5% of 302 bp.
• Their median CCC spread was 885 bp, leaving a 261 bp difference.
• Their 90th-percentile CCC spread was 946 bp, still 200 bp lower.
• The CCC-HY gap reached 844 bp, above the 676 bp peak recorded in 2025.

The unusually large weak-credit premium remains visible even at comparable broad-HY levels.
A stable headline spread would not fully capture this deterioration.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

The computer category carrying part of the AI buildout grew in dollars but contracted in real terms in 2026Q2.
Higher prices explain more than the entire increase in nominal spending.

• Nominal investment: +5.1% quarter-over-quarter
• Real investment: -1.7% quarter-over-quarter
• Computer price index: +7.0% quarter-over-quarter
• Volume effect: -$6.87 billion at an annualized rate
• Price effect: +$27.33 billion at an annualized rate

The resulting nominal increase was $20.46 billion annualized rate.
Real investment remained 43.3% above a year earlier despite the quarterly decline.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

U.S. macro tape is splitting in a way that matters for rates. August PCE came in cooler than feared, but today’s factory data say the inflation problem has moved upstream rather than disappeared.

- Headline PCE was 3.4% YoY and core 3.0%, both 0.3 pp below consensus; consumer spending still rose 0.9% MoM.
- ISM manufacturing held at 54.5, with new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7. Demand is expanding, not collapsing.
- ISM prices paid jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, reversing recent easing in factory input costs.
- Claims were 197K, continuing claims 1.701M, and Q2 GDP was revised to +2.2%. hard-data floor remains firm.

Cleaner read is disinflation at consumer level without a corresponding demand break.
That buys time at the front end, but 77.9 prices paid is number that keeps the long end like $TLT and in general $RSP in tension.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

August core PCE inflation accelerated even as its 3-month trend cooled.
The 2 moves came from different comparisons, and both matter for the demand outlook.

• Core prices rose 0.247% in August, after 0.126% in July. The 0.121 percentage-point acceleration exceeded 31 of the preceding 36 monthly changes in the inflation rate.
• The 3-month annualized rate fell to 2.05% from 2.30%, the 3rd-lowest reading across 37 months.
• August replaced May's 0.310% increase in that 3-month window. August was firmer than July, but smaller than the month dropping out.
• The latest month annualizes to 3.01%, matching the 12-month pace. The 6-month rate was 2.74%.

The short-run disinflation trend remains intact, but August's monthly pace is no longer as soft as June or July.
Further firm monthly readings would make the 2.05% trend harder to sustain.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Bank cash fell, but funding is still orderly.

• Reserves: -$83.6B, -2.8%
• Treasury cash: +$100.1B
• SOFR: 3.88% vs Fed reserve rate: 3.90%
• 99th-percentile repo: 3.96% vs 4.00% backstop

The drain is real. Funding stress has not confirmed it.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Grocery inflation has slowed to 2.1%. The bill has yet not come down.

Our guide separates new increases from the level in place:
• How much of the 2021 to 2023 rise remains
• Which budgets carry food and fuel together
• What that means as energy rises

Read it here: https://t.co/wfhDyQnyuo

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Computer investment now has more economic weight than it did at the dot-com peak.
GDP share is a better scale measure than a record dollar total.

• $420.1 billion at an annualized rate in 2026Q2
• 1.29% of nominal GDP, versus 1.05% at the 1999Q2 benchmark high
• 23.1% above that earlier GDP-share peak
• 21.9% of business equipment investment
• 7.1% of total private fixed investment

AI investment also reaches software and construction.
The buildout's economic footprint extends beyond the computer-equipment category.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Broad high-yield spreads rose 45 bp in September through the 29 Sep 2026 close.
89% of that increase arrived after 22 Sep, with stronger rating tiers widening alongside CCC.

• HY widened 40 bp over 5 closes, above the 97.5th percentile of earlier 2025-2026 moves.
• CCC widened 82 bp over the same window, also above the 97.5th percentile.
• Late-month widening reached BB at 27 bp and single B at 45 bp.
• VIX stood at ~16 intraday (roughly the 27th percentile of its 2025-2026 range).

The acceleration extends beyond the weakest borrowers.
Participation across rating tiers now carries more information than the headline HY spread alone.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

This morning’s BEA release showed August consumption accelerating while real income stalled.

• Real spending: +0.6%, vs +0.1% in July.
• Real disposable income: 0.0%, vs +0.3%.
• Saving rate: 4.1%, vs 4.6%.

Stronger spending supports near-term growth, but households are saving a smaller share of income.

Next test is whether income catches up or consumption slows.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

AI capex is increasingly a capital-markets story.

• Hyperscalers >$200bn debt YTD
• Amazon Sep raise: $5.76bn
• $AMZN H1 cash-capex gap: $24.89bn
• 2027 hyperscaler issuance forecast: $420bn

Debt-market capacity now sits inside the AI capex outlook.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Brent is averaging $113 in September, 24% above August.

When does that reach the grocery bill?

Our new guide answers with 50 years of U.S. data:
• 3 routes from energy to food
• Groceries after past oil shocks
• Does oil improve a grocery forecast?

Read it here: https://t.co/wfhDyQn0EQ

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

AI funding is splitting by borrower.

• $MSFT cash-capex surplus: $66.99bn
• $AMZN Sep bond raise: $5.76bn
• $CRWV Sep convert: $4.20bn
• AI-linked IG ~115 bp vs broad IG 78 bp

Broad spreads can stay calm while financing-dependent AI borrowers pay more.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

High yield looks calm. The weak end does not.

• Broad HY: 2.81% → 2.80%
• CCC: 8.85% → 11.12%
• CCC-BB gap: +32%
• Latest 20-reading gap move: +70 bp, with only 1 earlier move larger

Stress is still concentrated. Watch whether it spreads up in quality.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Durable goods demand still outruns fulfillment.

• Jun-Aug: $259.6B orders vs $252.8B shipments
• Backlog: +$6.82B since May
• Aug orders/shipments: 1.031

Historically, orders > shipments preceded stronger 6m shipment growth. Conversion is the test.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Anthropic’s IPO filing shows where AI spending is landing.

• $7.33B compute cost vs ~$4.6B revenue
• $AMZN $GOOGL: cloud
• $AVGO $NVDA $MU $VRT $ETN: chips, memory, cooling, power

Stocks get clearest earnings support in infrastructure. Anthropic still has to prove margins.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

A 5% ten-year yield looks different across eras.

•1970s median: 7.46%
•1980s: 10.43%
•2010s: 2.33%
•1970–Aug 2026: 56% of months at 5%+

Historical rarity depends on the comparison period.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Intraday check-in: the week is starting where the weekend Regime Map left off.

• S&P >50d: 26%
• All-US 50d: -23 pts/20d
• Only 2/19 major peaks had similarly weak breadth

Weak participation still argues for selectivity, not a market-timing call: https://t.co/nGYr6OOGO3

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

Treasury supply is not the liquidity effect.

• Plan: $628B borrowing, $100B cash draw
• Cash path: $950B → ~$1.05T → $850B
• Same $657B borrowing in 2 2023 quarters: cash moved +$225B and -$269B

Watch Treasury cash and funding rates, not gross supply alone.

[Navera Research @NaveraResearch]

The latest flows push back on a broad credit-outflow story.

• US bond funds +$5.93bn
• Short/intermediate IG +$1.63bn
• IG issuance $35bn; HY >$17bn

Demand is still there, but it is rotating toward shorter-duration credit as rates rise.