Carolina Storm Chasers

a group of wx geeks across the piedmont of NC that like to monitor, chase, and forecast the weather.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

with how hot and humid it will be any storm that forms today will likely pack a punch. dmg winds up to 70 mph is the main hazard today. also be aware of the heat indices today, most areas will approach 105-110°. this is some serious heat so take breaks if you are outside today!

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

nothing set in stone yet, but there is the possibility of a few large hailers and/or strong wind gusts with storms Wednesday afternoon. i’m hoping this pans out because this storm season has been a off to such a slow start, especially with the drought in place.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@FriedrichFiles it is, but we need 10-14” to beat this drought, even more in some areas

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

we’re going to be a desert by the end of the month at this point

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

sneaky northwest flow event tomorrow evening in the carolina’s. these events are notorious for big hailers around here. golf ball and hen eggs are the maximum sizes imo, but if we get CAPE to increase we could see a higher ceiling. mainly watching cola to clt points northwest.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

had it not been for the FROPA yesterday would’ve been a total bust. now the significant wind risk didn’t verify, but this still verified as a decent 45% no hatch wind day. say whatever you want about the tornado risk though, that busted HARD. only tornado was in the 10 CIG1 area.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

gotta be thankful this happened. on paper this looked like a significant event since friday.

[Dan @Djrobinson_wx]

A reasonable failure mode here for tomorrow would be if the QLCS from tonight remains organized past the mountains. This would clear most of the warm sector and lead to messy convection and overall severe probabilities would be dropped quite notably.#ncwx

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

a scenario that we’ll need to watch to see if it plays out; shredding the QLCS once it crosses the mountains. this would increase the tornado potential a-lot. wind would stay the same.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@greer93_greer @wx_sammy skeptical towards that area but definitely possible, im thinking this area

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

what a change in 18z/00z model guidance. likely models came to the conclusion that they were way to progressive. this would increase the tornado and wind risk for everybody with a later front. i honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the SPC paint many areas in a mdt risk soon.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

insane to see this over the mid atlantic/carolina’s. monday shaping up to be a dangerous day!

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

with a warm front lifting north out of SC tomorrow i’m quite concerned that a few storms could rotate and get tornadic sunday pm into the am hours of monday. lots of directional shear and low level instability out there. will probably have some decent structure on these also.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

you’d want the progressive GFS to be right (which i doubt it will be) for Monday or otherwise we could be dealing with a very dangerous severe weather day in the Carolina’s. several tornadoes and widespread significant damaging winds are becoming increasingly possible.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

will have to watch Monday for the possibility of a significant severe weather event in the Carolina’s. deep layer shear, ripping LLJ, decent CAPE, and looping curved hodos with elevated EHI levels and strong forcing from 700 mb. widespread dmg wind and tornado event on the table.

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@Jason26199627 how are you so confident?

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@greer93_greer I saw that, inland warnings are now being posted

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@TimBuckleyWX My view from the house just a mile south of it

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@chazzzwx Also I’ve seen better storms

[Carolina Storm Chasers @NcScStrmChasers]

@chazzzwx “Second time it’s happen” second time you’ve shit talked