nws

#onPACE to live forever

[nws @NeastWS]

#neverTweat

[nws @NeastWS]

@JoePostingg this is basically how the fracking revolution happened

[nws @NeastWS]

@yttriumlove @LinkofSunshine like if it were a matter of police being out there, you would probably see the increase more concentrated in Street/Outdoor incidents, but the increase there is exactly the same as in Residences

[nws @NeastWS]

@yttriumlove @LinkofSunshine it's possible that increased officer presence is leading to more reporting but i'd want to see some evidence using reported crime rates vs victimization survey or something

having looked at the incident-level data, the increase is quite broad across difference circumstances

[nws @NeastWS]

@maryannmom @LinkofSunshine exactly

anecdotally this is the case insofar as people i knew would routinely get mugged when i was growing up in nyc in the 90s

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport yeah it makes sense if you assume the marginal murderer is someone who loses their cool and shoots someone while people who use other means have to plan it out more

so when murder goes up it's that former, more impulsive group that uses guns

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport there was also this weird thing where shootings spiked a lot more in NYC in 2020-21 than murders did because non-shooting homicides weirdly did not go up, just gun homicides

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport tbh it's just really complicated to talk about because different cities have very different homicide levels, everyone saw a 2020-21 spike, then everyone has seen a decline of different magnitudes, so places end up with bigger declines but still higher murder rates than NYC

[nws @NeastWS]

@yttriumlove @LinkofSunshine I definitely believe when looking back 30 years - maybe people were reporting robberies more accurately which explains the different trajectory there?

but how that how much of the 48% increase in felony assaults since 2019 is explained by higher reporting rates?

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport "doing good" means the murder rate has gone down 47% since 2021 to an all time low - 3.6 murder per 100k residents, below the US average of about 4.0 (an estimate, national stats are very slow to update)

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport it's certainly possible that they are shifting murderers out while assaulters stay in the city or shifting criminals out generally while criminals commit more assaults per person, idk

you asked if the murder rate had dropped per capita so i provided the data on population change

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport based on the rate of reported felony assaults, I don't think criminals are leaving or crime is being underreported

we just did a good job on the specific issue of shootings

[nws @NeastWS]

@MattZeitlin what job is he wearing that outfit for

[nws @NeastWS]

@Raywin @PolymarketSport NYC population decreased by 0.13% in 2025, the murder rate is down 20.9% and the shooting incident rate is down 5.7%

[nws @NeastWS]

@arpitrage comparing to 2022 numbers, the change in the bronx is striking

https://t.co/mwqFqzexYH

[nws @NeastWS]

@nominalthoughts I think the oxygen for that particular line of discourse comes from people who want to make the leap from "he found out what it was and figured it was fine because he's not a Nazi" to "he got it because he is an actual Nazi"

[nws @NeastWS]

@FuuckIsraelnow @JoePostingg do you think infidelity 15 months ago reflects trustworthiness at all? or is it irrelevant

[nws @NeastWS]

@Probably_Human_ @FuuckIsraelnow @JoePostingg well I believe based on a preponderance of the evidence that he learned what it was after he got it, but I also believe he's stupid enough for it to be plausible his ex to knew what it was without him knowing, so I have to concede those group chat messages aren't definitive lol

[nws @NeastWS]

@FuuckIsraelnow @JoePostingg you can just say you are looking past his bad behavior in the past because he agrees with you on an issue you are very passionate about, that's perfectly reasonable lol

[nws @NeastWS]

@FuuckIsraelnow @JoePostingg there's no definitive proof either way. it's mostly a question of whether you trust the word of a guy who was breaking his marital vows 15 months ago. which is perfectly fine but you can understand why other people don't trust him