neil_ferguson

Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist. Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

I gave my one media interview of the week to unherd. 30 minutes, so quite far-ranging. https://t.co/QrYS5z8mM2

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

@yhgrad @jhaushofer @jLewnard @CJEMetcalf @mlipsitch @BjornstadOttar @JustinLessler @michaelmina_lab @ianfmiller1 @AmyKayeWinter @JeremyFarrar Yes, well done, Jess!

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Another good summary: https://t.co/NgveJLw3UV

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

An excellent commentary: https://t.co/6TNgIt8Gpg

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Agree. There is legitimate political and social debate about what the right strategy is. But scientists need to focus on what the data tells us, including the uncertainties.

[Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch]

https://t.co/ImmVjC4nQ8 Washington Post cuts through the nonsense coming from politically motivated camps @nataliexdean weighs in talking common sense.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Let me be clear. This virus has a lethality substantially in excess of “seasonal” flu. Yes, up to half of those infected might not show symptoms. But that is accounted for in our estimates and always was. There is no credible data supporting the idea that 90% are asymptomatic.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

An excellent debunking of the current confusion and in some cases disinformation around mortality estimates for COVID-19 in the UK: https://t.co/gnKDq6AC9M

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

@Imperial_JIDEA @CommunityJameel @WHO @PAHOemergencies @imperialcollege @ImperialSPH @BBCWorld @cnnbrk @ReutersUK Our report adds to the increasing volume of research which supports @WHO call for rapid global action to control COVID-19 transmission.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Still getting used to personal sharing online! I am doing better thx - gone from flu like symptoms with fever and more 3 days ago to something which feels more like a bad head cold today. Still tired and snuffly but fingers crossed past the worst. Thx++ for all you good wishes.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background - I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics...

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

As well as the partners listed above, I would also like to thank all the other individuals and orgs who have offered to help. It is appreciated, but we only have limited bandwidth to manage such partnerships right now. We hope to bring more partners on board over time.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

That timescale reflects the balancing of those priorities with the multitude of other urgent policy-relevant COVID-19 questions we are addressing....

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Generally a dry cough is more common - what I had. Then fever. But symptoms do vary a lot between people

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Again, many many thanks for everyone’s very kind support. I was tested given my recent proximity to people leading the UK response. Positive. Which is a strange experience - to be infected by the virus one is modelling 🙄. Still feeling rough, but not awful.

[neil_ferguson @neil_ferguson]

Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID-19 in Westminster.