ValueNerd

Aspiring value investor. Aim to learn and help others to learn too.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

$MRNA HAS TO raise cash

They will dilute shareholders and my question is at what level will institutional investors be willing to capitalize?

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@baypelicanjpeg Are you running out of cash to cover the position?

I sized mine to handle a 2x increase in the price before I have any trouble w/ cash

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

Opened a short in $MRNA 156

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@baypelicanjpeg My gut tells me we will get the chance to close at 100-120 out of sheer volatility in the next couple weeks

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@TranslucideUS Also, if needed I’m sure they can put grouting cash flows on a trust and use that as collateral on a loan for expansion capex (if they were to need any)

I really don’t see dilution in the horizon.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

My concern also, a 30 usd offer would probably leave most shareholders extatic while seriously undervaluing $PESI

I guess we need to wait for some old shareholders capital to rotate before we can go up.

[Sandman @Sandman7591]

So, I’m getting questions on $PESI today. I always do when the price is down. What I would say is with the award in hand the chief worry with current price action is that $PESI is acquired by one of the many larger players in its field. There is now a massive bullseye on $PESI

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@Piotrek0790210 @VelvetYammer They diluted in May for this purpose.

The CEO was explicitly saying there are simple upgrades needed in the call. Check the transcript.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

I would really appreciate someone provide me with a bearish view on $PESI

Why is this not a high 40s, low 50s stock (on the lower end)?

Just to confirm I’m staying rational

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

Anyone know when the HAB meeting minutes and/or recording will be available?

$PESI

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@VelvetYammer Yeah I don’t see any no dilution in the horizon

Hanford EMF volumes have begun, that should stop the operation cash bleed in a few months.

Expansion capex for grouting seems to be covered.

Im holding confidently.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@AG_415 Yeah big picture is: numbers got stupid high and this company is stupid cheap.

Still a few variables up in the air to size just how stupid.

Is 20x really on the board for grouting CFs with a 14yr contract?

Or will the market need clarity on renewal through 2060/70?

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

Those are unquestionably the numbers we have with the info today.

I just want to understand margins a bit better. For instance:

If we expected 40% margin at 40 usd, wouldnt margins increase w/ price?

¿Are margins similar across the different types of waste they treat?

[AG @AG_415]

$PESI CEO Mark Duff on Hanford:

>“The numbers are staggering.”
>"We are modifying our permit to increase [capacity] to over 10 million [gallons/year].”
>“[DOE] demand is expected to get to 9 million gallons by 2030.”

9M gal × $60–70/gal
= $540–630M revenue

× 40% EBIT margin
= $216–252M EBIT

× 10x EBIT
= $2.16–2.52B 2030 EV

÷ 1.10⁴ to discount back to 2026
= $1.48–1.72B incremental EV today

Current $PESI EV: ~$410M

+ $1.48–1.72B Hanford uplift
= ~$1.89–2.13B implied EV

= $90–101/share

Obviously the key assumption is $PESI ultimately capturing the full 9M gal/yr -- but as Duff put it, “the numbers are staggering.”

[HappyInvest21 @HInvest2148390]

$DDI What a kindergarten with this special committee - I mean, how long do you need to say that the offer is totally unacceptable? Everything longer than 10 minutes seems like a waste of time.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

Also no longer hold $STAA momentarily

But glad to see the China thesis continues to play out nicely

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

I do think there’s a caveat here or there (like what % of the contract is already priced in)

Or maybe a bullish one, like what if market prices this more like a utility company and it commands 15-20x multiple

But all-in-all $PESI numbers have gotten stupid high

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@Diego_La_Torre_ Hasn’t dilution been linked to delay in cash flows?

Also, wouldn’t delays be essentially a transitory issue?

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

These numbers look small now, seems the price is indeed much closer to 87 usd per gallon.

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

9m gallons @ 40 usd per gallon

360m net revenue
40% EBIT mg
144m EBIT

10x EBIT multiple: 1,440 mkt cap in 2030 (from grouting alone)

10% discount rate 980m mkt cap in 2026 (again, from grouting alone)

$PESI fair value share price is somewhere in the 40s maybe low 50s

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@AG_415 Question now is whether margins are consistent along these different types of waste

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

Mark can’t be making it more obvious, they will be doing the full 9m gallons from both 200W and 200E

He just can’t legally say it outright

[ValueNerd @NerdValue]

@AG_415 He did

“safe to assume average price” or something along that I understood